The Union are close to clinching a Champions League berth, but aren’t there yet

Union manager Jim Curtin would certainly like his team to win the Supporters’ Shield this year, and he has been increasingly vocal lately about that.

He also knows the gap between desire and reality might be too big to overcome. Though the Union and Los Angeles FC both have 60 standings points with a month left in the season, the Western Conference leaders have played one fewer game than the Union and have two more wins — the first standings tiebreaker.

Naturally, some Union fans will shake their fists at the clouds over their team throwing away a shot at a trophy because of all those early-season ties. But once they’ve come back from their Simpsons meme moment, they might notice what it took just to have a chance in the first place.

With four games to go, the squad has already broken team records for wins (17), points (60), goals scored (63) and shutouts (13) in a season. They have a seven-point lead over second-place Montreal, and double-digit advantages over both New York clubs, helped by New York City FC’s shockingly bad 1-1 tie with Cincinnati on Wednesday.

But the Union (17-4-9, 60 points) still haven’t clinched anything yet — not first place in the East, or a berth in next year’s Champions League. They are on the cusp of both, thanks in part to Orlando City winning the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday. It also helped that Montreal dropped points at home in Friday in a 2-2 tie with Columbus, needing a stoppage-time comeback despite a man advantage for the last 23 minutes.

Still, there is work to do.

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Orlando (42 points) can still catch the Union if it wins out, coincidentally starting with a visit to Subaru Park on Saturday (7:30 p.m., PHL17). The Lions have played two fewer games, and if they win out and the Union lose out, they’d finish tied. Orlando would take the first tiebreaker of total wins by 18-17.

The Union can see off that threat Saturday, but it’s just one of three on the board. Montreal (53 points) has one game in hand, and even if they didn’t would be able to finish first.

The third threat only pertains to the Champions League, and it exists because of some quirks in the rule book.

Orlando has already booked a place in next year’s tournament because it won the Open Cup. If it also finishes atop the East, it can’t take two berths.

Montreal is caught by the rule that Canadian teams can only reach the CCL through winning the Canadian Championship, that country’s domestic cup tournament. Vancouver took the berth by winning the Voyageurs Cup trophy earlier this summer.

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The rule has long been a sore point for MLS’s three Canadian clubs, and it will finally go away after this season. But it won’t be in time to help Montreal add to one of the league’s richest Champions League histories.

If either team finishes above the Union, the CCL ticket will be awarded based on the Supporters’ Shield standings. That brings Austin into play, with 51 points and a game in hand on the Union. Austin could overtake the Union on points, and if they end tied at 66 (Austin’s maximum), the Texas team would have more wins: 20 to the Union’s 19 or 18.

The earliest that all of this can be settled is the middle of next week, when Montreal plays its game in hand on Tuesday and Austin plays its game in hand on Wednesday.

And if the scenario math seems complicated, Jim Curtin has found a way to keep the message to his locker room simple.

“I’ve gone to the well quite a bit with our players on guarding against the letdown and saying, ‘This is going to be the toughest game,’ he said. “I’ve used that one quite a bit in recent weeks, and the players have responded every time. So I think they have motivation.”

Richard Odada, the 21-year-old Kenyan midfielder who was one of the Union’s summer signings, finally got his visa and arrived in town this week.

“We played a good 20 minutes 11-v-11 in space [Wednesday] and he did a really good job,” Curtin said. “A really good range of passing. He’s a physical specimen — I’m pretty much eye to eye with him, he’s maybe a little shorter than me, maybe 6-3 — but strong, physical, good ball winner and can really pass the ball.”

Odada might get some minutes with the Union’s reserve team this year once he gets back to full fitness, having not played in an official game since mid-May.

“He’s fit in really well with the locker room,” Curtin said. “I think there’s a lot of potential there. It’s still early and he’s going to work hard, but I’m happy with the first impressions for sure.”

» READ MORE: Union add depth by signing Kenyan midfielder Richard Odada

Only including the teams still alive for the prizes.

1. Union, 60 points (17-4-9, 4 games left)

2. CF Montréal, 53 points (16-9-5, 4 games left)

5. Orlando City (12-10-6, 42 points, 6 games left)

1. Los Angeles FC, 60 points (19-7-3, 5 games left)

2. Union, 60 points (17-4-9, 4 games left)

3. CF Montréal, 53 points (16-9-5, 4 games left)

4. Austin FC, 51 points (15-8-6, 5 games left)

All games are on ESPN+ unless otherwise noted.

Orlando City: at Union on Saturday (7:30 p.m., PHL17)

CF Montréal: vs. Chicago on Tuesday (7:30 p.m.)

Los Angeles FC: at FC Dallas on Saturday (8:30 p.m.); at Minnesota United on Tuesday (8 p.m.)

Austin: at Seattle Sounders on Saturday (8 p.m.); vs. Real Salt Lake on Wednesday (9:15 p.m.)