It’s World Cup knockout time for the U.S. against Bosnia. Our writers weigh in on who wins and why.
The United States opens as a favorite against Bosnia and has the talent. But this has been a wild World Cup full of surprises.
Going solely off paper, the U.S. men’s national team has the talent to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina and advance to the FIFA World Cup’s Round of 16. Oddsmakers all over have the United States winning and have even built parlays around the notion.
When the U.S., No. 15 in FIFA world rankings, plays No. 61 Bosnia in San Francisco on Wednesday (8 p.m., Fox29), it will be the U.S. seeking its first win in the knockout stages since 2002. During the last World Cup in Qatar in 2022, the USMNT lost 3-1 to Netherlands in the round of 16.
This is Bosnia’s first knockout-round appearance and just the second time qualifying for the tournament since its debut at the 2014 edition in Brazil.
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This feels ripe for the taking. But again, this World Cup might go down as one of the most shocking in recent memory with teams in the knockout stage in their first-ever World Cup (see Cape Verde) and some even needed a playoff game to even make the tournament (see Democratic Republic of Congo). To equate this to casual American fans, this is March Madness, this is Florida Gulf Coast’s Sweet 16 run circa 2013, or tiny Fairleigh Dickinson knocking off No. 1 Purdue in 2023.
It’s been a must-watch because the underdogs are bringing it. What does that mean for the United States, a team that showed dominance through the group stage but is coming off an eye-opening loss to Turkey entering the knockout phase?
Did that loss recenter these players, and they’re ready to show what they learned against a Bosnia team happy to still be in the fight? Or will there be a World Cup-ending theater late on Wednesday night?
Our team of writers take a look at the matchup and the tournament at large to offer where they think this one will end up.
I know it will shock all of you that I’m a cynic by nature, not just profession. The stakes for the U.S. losing this game are almost higher than for winning it, because everything the program has done for the last eight years — not just since 2022 — goes up in smoke if they go out now.
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Meanwhile, Bosnia is on house money, and I can only imagine how many emotions will be in Esmir Bajraktarević’s mind as he plays against the nation he used to represent. But in the end, the U.S. has the better talent and should have another electric home crowd behind it in the Bay Area.
That’s good for one goal, and a first-choice starting lineup (even if the bench isn’t full) is worth another.
Prediction: United States 2, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
How this plays out for me is largely determined by the lineup U.S. manager Mauricio Pochettino puts out against a really big, physical Bosnia team that bullied its way to four points against Canada and Qatar after shaking off a 4-1 beat down to Switzerland in its second game of Group B.
There are guys who need to be on the field for the U.S. in the biggest moments. Chris Richards is one of them. Tyler Adams is another, and obviously, a healthy Christian Pulisic and locked-in Matt Freese make the difference.
Plus, moving to the next round on U.S. soil, on the West Coast, where the Americans have already found success, feels natural. Frankly, they should want it more. So if we’re talking about what’s at stake for the U.S. vs. what Bosnia stands to gain, it’s tough to see how this American contingent doesn’t take that into account, play the best 11 of the 26, and move on. But I’ll hedge that it won’t come easy.
Prediction: United States 1, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 (U.S. wins 5-4 on penalty kicks)
Key American players like Adams, Folarin Balogun, and Tim Ream watched from the bench as the U.S. conceded a 98th-minute winner to Turkey in the USMNT’s group stage finale.
But since the Americans had already secured the group and a place in the knockout rounds, the worst the loss could do was produce a temporary sting. Now, a loss could end it all. The U.S. will need to follow up a strong group stage performance with its second-ever win in a knockout game at the World Cup.
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A win in the expanded knockouts wouldn’t quite have the magnitude of the “dos a cero” round of 16 win over Mexico in 2002, but knockouts are knockouts.
The U.S. has played confidently at this World Cup, something it will need to continue to snap a 10-game losing streak against European sides. The Bosnians will be a tough test, but a well-rested American team should overcome its recent form against Europe.
Prediction: United States 2, Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
In this World Cup, underdogs are stealing the spotlight, the U.S. men are on a roll, and Philadelphia has not only welcomed the world but has given visitors a crash course on just how real the curse of the Rocky Statue can be.
Join Jonathan Tannenwald, the Inquirer's soccer writer, and host Lisa Carlin, analyst for CBS Sports Golazo, as they dissect the matches, the moments, and more as Philly has its moment in soccer's brightest spotlight. Watch our latest episode right here.
Watch previous episodes:
Episode 1: The Wait is Over!
Episode 2: Groups, Goals, and Glory
Episode 3: Electric Action in Philly
