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Joey Chestnut, Miki Sudo big favorites to win 2023 Nathan’s hot dog eating contests

Both Chestnut and Sudo are valued at -5000 to take home the coveted mustard belt.

Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo pose with 63 and 40 hot dogs, respectively, after winning the Nathan's Famous Fourth of July hot dog eating contest in Coney Island in 2022.
Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo pose with 63 and 40 hot dogs, respectively, after winning the Nathan's Famous Fourth of July hot dog eating contest in Coney Island in 2022.Read moreJulia Nikhinson / AP

On the corner of Surf and Stillwell avenues in Coney Island, N.Y., is the backdrop of one of the most iconic Fourth of July celebrations: the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog eating contest.

A contest that dates back to 1916, this year’s competition is set to begin later this morning outside the original Nathan’s location on Coney Island, with roughly 20 contestants competing for both the men’s and women’s hot dog and bun eating titles.

Last year, 15-time men’s champion Joey Chestnut scarfed down 63 hot dogs, a year after devouring a contest-record 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes.

On the women’s wide, Miki Sudo has been dominant over the last decade in the event. She reclaimed her title last year after missing 2021 because of pregnancy, eating 40 hot dogs to win her eighth contest since 2014. She also holds the world record for eating six hot dogs in a minute.

It should come as no surprise that Sudo and Chestnut enter today as the favorites. Here’s a look at their betting odds ahead of this morning and afternoon’s festivities.

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Odds are courtesy of BetMGM, current at the time of publishing and subject to change.

2023 Nathan’s hot dog eating contest odds (via BetMGM)

Women’s contest

  1. Miki Sudo: -5000

  2. Michelle Lesco: +1600

  3. The field: +2500

Men’s contest

  1. Joey Chestnut: -5000

  2. Geoffrey Esper: +1200

  3. Nick Wehry: +2000

  4. James Webb: +2500

  5. The field: +3000

  6. Bartley Weaver IV: +4000

  7. Gideon Orji: +5000

  8. Ren Zoza: +5000

Sudo has just one other participant named, Michelle Lesco, who won the event in 2021 with Sudo absent. Lesco has the highest handle (73.1%) and betting tickets (40%) to win the contest, according to BetMGM data.

In the men’s competition, Esper has the most betting tickets (26.5%) to win the contest, but all the money is coming in on Chestnut (69%), per BetMGM data on Monday.

It’s worth noting that Sudo’s partner, Nick Wehry, is in the field and has the third-best odds to win the men’s contest at 20/1.

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How many hot dogs will Chestnut, Sudo scarf down?

Miki Sudo

  1. Over 43.5: -115; Under 43.5: -115

  2. Over 48.5: +200; Under 48.5: -275

Joey Chestnut

  1. Over 72.5: -115; Under 72.5: -115

  2. Over 76.5: +260; Under 76.5: -350

For reference, Sudo has eaten more than 40 hot dogs in three of her last six contests, eating 48.5 during her 2020 victory, the highest number of dogs she’s eaten at the Nathan’s event. That’s the only time Sudo has eclipsed 43.5.

Meanwhile, “Jaws” has eaten 70 or more hot dogs in six of his last seven contests, with the exception of last year, when he ate only 63, his lowest since his 2015 loss to Matt Stonie, when he ate 60.

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According to BetMGM data on Monday, 90% of money is on under 43.5 total hot dogs eaten by Sudo and 67% of money is on Chestnut to eat under 72.5 hot dogs.