Eagles-49ers stats: Breaking down the NFC championship matchup by the numbers

Here are the numbers behind the matchups the Eagles will have to be wary of when facing the 49ers.

Jalen Hurts throws a pass against the 49ers in a 2021 game.Read moreDAVID MAIALETTI / Staff Photographer

Updated Jan. 23, 2023, 9:52 a.m. ET

Published Jan. 23, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

The Eagles and 49ers are the final two NFC teams standing.

The two top seeds in the conference will face off 3 p.m. on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field with a Super Bowl berth on the line after the Eagles blew out the Giants and San Francisco toppled the Dallas Cowboys.

Here are four advanced metrics to break down the matchup between the NFC heavyweights.

50

Explosive plays have been a point of emphasis for the Eagles since Nick Sirianni took over as head coach, and this 49ers defense will make his team work for them.

The 49ers allowed just 50 plays over 20 yards in the regular season, which ranked fourth according to TruMedia. The Eagles offense was one of the most explosive groups in the NFL during the regular season and continued generating big plays in the divisional round. During the regular season, they had 80 plays of over 20 yards, which trails only the Kansas City Chiefs, meaning Sunday’s game will be strength vs. strength.

San Francisco’s defense, led by former Eagles linebacker-turned-hotshot coordinator DeMeco Ryans, is anchored by a dominant pass rush and a true difference-making linebacker in Fred Warner. Warner’s ability both in coverage and as a potential spy containing Jalen Hurts inside the pocket will take away parts of the Eagles offense, particularly Hurts’ scrambling ability and the run-pass-option game attacking the middle of the field.

While San Francisco’s defensive secondary doesn’t have many household names, Ryans has gotten solid play out of the group. Still, the Raiders’ Davante Adams had seven catches for 153 yards and two touchdowns against the Niners in Week 14. Tyreek Hill went for 146 yards and a touchdown on nine catches a few weeks earlier. If the Eagles are going to manage explosive plays, they will likely come by way of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith winning their matchups on the outside.

114.98

As good as San Francisco is at limiting explosive plays, the team is even better at containing the run.

According to TruMedia, the 49ers defense leads the NFL in expected points added with 114.98. The metric measures how effective a defense is to decrease an opponent’s likelihood of scoring on each play.

A significant part of that number stems from the rushing defense, which ranked second in efficiency during the regular season according to Football Outsiders. Can the No. 1-ranked Eagles rushing offense prevail as it has against so many other top-ranked rushing defenses with Hurts juicing the numbers?

It’s a bit of a crapshoot. The 49ers haven’t faced a quarterback with anywhere close to the impact Hurts has on the running game since a season-opening win against Justin Fields in September. Fields had 11 carries for 28 yards in that game, but their exposure to true QB running game looks has been limited since then.

They played the Falcons in Week 6 and Marcus Mariota managed six carries for 50 yards. Taysom Hill of the Saints had six carries for 13 yards in Week 12.

San Francisco’s athletic linebacker pairing would suggest the 49ers can handle Hurts on zone reads capably, but the history has favored the Eagles against vaunted rushing defenses with little experience with a quarterback as dynamic as Hurts on the ground.

90

Regardless of Sunday night’s winner, Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata were going to face an All-Pro.

The Eagles’ tackle duo dodged Cowboys star Micah Parsons but will begin preparation for 49ers game-wrecker Nick Bosa instead.

Bosa had 90 quarterback pressures in the regular season, which trailed only his fellow first-team All-Pro Parsons among all edge rushers. PFF’s pass-rush productivity stat, which measures pressures on a per-snap basis and adds extra weight to sacks, has Bosa as the most efficient edge rusher in the league.

Johnson played through a torn groin muscle commendably against the New York Giants, but Bosa presents significant challenges for even fully healthy offensive linemen. Providing help for overmatched pass protectors isn’t the Eagles style, but sending a few chips or double teams Bosa’s way, whether he’s lined up against Johnson or Mailata, may be necessary.

.35

The unpredictability of Brock Purdy may seem like an Eagles advantage, but the rookie seventh-round pick has been remarkably efficient in his seven starts.

According to TruMedia, Purdy leads all playoff quarterbacks in EPA/Play with .35 and his completion percentage above expectation was 4.1% against the Cowboys, which was second behind Patrick Mahomes. Expected Points Added (EPA/Play) is a measure of success that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense’s likelihood to score. The second stat measures a quarterback’s performance relative to the difficulty of his throws.

These stats help separate quarterback play from the circumstances around them, but the Niners’ supporting cast is impossible to overlook when evaluating Purdy’s success. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL and has created a chaotic, explosive offense centered on deceptive pre-snap motion and wonky alignments for playmakers Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

The Eagles defense will have its hands full determining matchups, and an even more significant challenge locating those players. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon likes to disguise his coverages with consistent pre-snap looks, but the pre-snap motion Shanahan relies on will create an interesting cat-and-mouse game.