Joel Embiid’s NBA MVP odds are improving by the game

Here we are at the All-Star break and the MVP award is Joel Embiid’s to lose. The stats say it. The standings say it. Even the bookies say it.

“A month ago, Joel Embiid was nearly 50-1. Now we have him as the clear favorite,” Jay Croucher, head oddsmaker for PointsBet said. “He’s opened up a gap between him, [Nikola] Jokic and Giannis [Antetokounmpo]. So much of it is about narrative. Embiid is definitely the people’s favorite. He’s one of the most beloved players in the league. I think there’s a sense as well that he should have won last year had he stayed healthy.”

Embiid is slightly ahead of Antetokounmpo for the scoring race at 29.6 points per game to the Greek Freak’s 29.4.

PointsBet opened Embiid at +750 on July 14, but had him at +4500 on Dec. 30. As his numbers and Sixers’ victories grew, his odds have shortened. On Friday, PointsBet had him +135 with Jokic +300, and Antetokounmpo +350. Next was Stephen Curry +1000 and Ja Morant +1200.

Embiid has missed two games since Thanksgiving, averaging nearly 32 points, 12 rebounds and five assists in that span.

Former NBA coach Jim Lynam wonders if Embiid being in the lineup practically every night has sharpened his skills.

» READ MORE: Joel Embiid’s 42 points and a balanced scoring attack power 76ers past the Bucks, 123-120

“Does that lend itself to a more consistent level of play? I’m not sure anybody has the answer to that,” said Lynam, an analyst for NBC Sports Philadelphia. “There’s a lot of speculation in load management. Am I saying it’s wrong? No. And when you’re looking at 14- and 15-year careers, it’s difficult to make short-term judgments. But having said that, I’ll make one. Joel’s never approached this level of play.

“Draw your own conclusions, folks.”

Croucher said the MVP betting market will pick up. Football season being over is only part of the story.

» READ MORE: For the Sixers, a welcomed All-Star break also comes with a dash of anticipation for James Harden’s debut

“We’ll see the majority of action come in from this point forward,” Croucher said. “One, they [bettors] don’t love betting on the NBA MVP in November because it’s tying up their money for so long unless they’re betting on a longshot. Whereas now there’s some clarity, I think people will be more confident and more comfortable betting.”

Lynam thinks the eventual addition of James Harden to the Sixers lineup will only enhance Embiid’s candidacy. Harden (hamstring) is targeting a return soon after the All-Star break. The Sixers next play at Minnesota on Friday.

In the last 14 games, Embiid has scored at least 40 points six times. Harden will ease the scoring load and, general manager Daryl Morey certainly hopes, help the team climb the East standings.

» READ MORE: 25 years ago, Allen Iverson was booed in Cleveland. He didn’t let it change him.

The Sixers, Milwaukee and Cleveland each are 2.5 games back of Miami and Chicago. Embiid and the Sixers picked up a clutch win at Milwaukee on Thursday. Embiid had 42 points, 14 boards. Antetokounmpo had 32, 11, and nine assists. It was riveting stuff.

“We’ve gone back and forth with the people on the trading team [the oddsmakers],” Croucher explained. “I think getting Harden helps Embiid.

If they get the 1-seed, it’s done. He cannot lose the MVP if they get the 1-seed. And it’s probably done if they get the 2-seed. Even If Giannis [and the Bucks] are the 1-seed and Embiid is the 2-seed, I still think Embiid wins.”

As of Friday afternoon

BetMGM: Embiid +125, Jokic +300, Antetokounmpo +375.

Caesars: Embiid +140, Jokic +300, Antetokounmpo +375.

DraftKings: Embiid +140, Jokic +290, Antetokounmpo +380.

FanDuel: Embiid +145, Jokic +300, Antetokounmpo +400.

Parx: Embiid +130, Jokic +300, Antetokounmpo +400.

PointsBet: Embiid +135, Jokic +300, Antetokounmpo +350.

At Cleveland/Via BetMGM

Dunk contest (Saturday): Jalen Green +175, Obi Toppin +200, Cole Anthony +250, Juan Toscano-Anderson +550.

Three-point contest (Saturday): Patty Mills +450, Luke Kennard +450, Fred VanVleet +500, Trae Young +550, Desmond Bane +600, Zach LaVine +600, C.J. McCollum +900, Karl Anthony-Towns +1200.

NBA: Ja Morant on Thursday said he wants to win Sunday’s All-Star Game MVP. He’s +650 at BetMGM, +700 at Parx, +850 at Caesars.

Golf: Nothing wrong with taking a shot, right? Bettor at DraftKings put up $1,500 that Sam Burns would be leading after the first round of the Genesis Invitational at 45-1 odds. Woulda paid out $69k. Burns shot a 71 and was tied for 62nd.

CBB: Southern Miss bettors were thrilled the other night when the Eagles, who were favored by 2, sent the game against UTSA into overtime with a bucket at the buzzer. That elation quickly vanished as UTSA outscored Southern Miss 22-3 in the extra session and won by 19.

NHL: Data analyst Ian Duncan (@ianduncs on Twitter) points out that Montreal and Columbus entered Friday on 9-1 runs where a goal has been scored in the first 10 minutes of their games. Montreal is at the Islanders on Sunday at 2 p.m. Columbus hosts Buffalo on Sunday at 6 p.m.

CBB: Top-ranked Gonzaga laid 31.5 to Pepperdine the other night and was -9000 on the money line. They won, but only by 20. The Zags are 11-0 in WCC play, 7-4 against the spread. They play Santa Clara on Saturday in their final home game of the season. Gonzaga is 4-1-2 ATS at home against conference opponents. They won at Santa Clara by 32 in January.

File away this stat passed along from the gang @Bet_Labs.

In the last 10 years, NBA teams that win a game by 40+ are 41.3% against the spread in their next contest. The Celtics beat the Sixers by 48 on Tuesday and lost outright at home to the Pistons on Wednesday (as 12.5-point favorites).

Bet_Labs has the record at 34-50-2 against the number after the 40-point blowout, which means taking the ‘dog is 50-34-2. Hitting nearly 59 percent wouldn’t buy a yacht, but it’d buy some sunblock