Eagles’ first playoff loss was to karma. Next up: the 49ers.
The Eagles might always wonder what would have happened if they had played for the No. 2 seed on Sunday. Or the bracket might break in a way that makes it all irrelevant.
You can rationalize it all you want. No, really, you can. There are lots of reasons to believe the Eagles won’t live to regret the decisions they made in Week 18.
To shrug their shoulders at the No. 2 seed.
To go against everything that Nick Sirianni and his coaches have preached throughout their tenure with the Eagles: that the most important Sunday is the current one.
» READ MORE: Eagles backups fall short against Commanders, squander chance to collect NFC’s No. 2 seed
To do what no other team chose to do this weekend and rest their starters when a potential home playoff game was on the line.
Sure, there are reasons. If the Eagles can’t beat an injury-depleted 49ers team at home like the Seahawks did on Saturday and then beat an inexperienced Bears team on the road like the Lions did on Sunday, then they don’t deserve to be in the Super Bowl. Even with the No. 2 seed, they would have lost somewhere along the line … probably not to the Packers or Bears at Lincoln Financial Field, but certainly to the Seahawks in Seattle or the Rams at home.
Right?
The more you talk it out, the sillier it sounds, which is why all the rationalizations in the world can’t change the cold, hard truth. If the Eagles would have beaten the Commanders on Sunday, their odds of repeating as Super Bowl champions would have been better than they are now. Now, after an ugly 24-17 loss to Washington that should quell all that talk of Tanner McKee being traded for premium draft capital, the Eagles will enter the postseason as the third-seeded team in the NFC. They will play the depleted but pedigreed 49ers instead of the depleted and not pedigreed Packers. Then, they will likely either travel to Chicago or host the dangerous Rams, instead of hosting the Bears.
Could everything break in their favor? Sure. If the Packers upset the Bears next weekend, and if the Panthers upset the Rams next weekend, the Eagles would essentially be where they would have been as the No. 2 seed. In that case, the top-seeded Seahawks would host the seventh-seeded Packers and the Eagles would host the Panthers for the right to advance to the NFC championship. But, then, if the Packers upset the Bears and the Rams beat the Panthers, the Eagles would be hosting the Rams in a rematch of their Week 3 game, which saw the Rams jump out to a 26-7 lead and eventually lose on a blocked field goal.
Essentially, the result of the Eagles’ loss to the Commanders on Sunday was to bring into play the possibility of a second-round matchup with the Rams, in addition to the possibility of traveling to frigid Soldier Field rather than hosting the Bears.
» READ MORE: Tanner McKee is exactly what the Eagles need ... in a backup quarterback
If chalk prevails elsewhere — the Rams opened as 10.5-point favorites against the Panthers, the Bears as 1.5-point favorites against the Packers — the Eagles have a manageable road to the NFC championship. There’s a decent chance they’ll be the betting favorite in any situation other than a road game in Seattle or a home game against the Rams. And they might also be favored against the Rams. The difference now is that, barring upsets, there is no easy road. They are a better team than the Bears on a neutral field, their Black Friday loss notwithstanding. But their offensive struggles have been exacerbated in suboptimal conditions — at Buffalo, at Green Bay, home against the Lions. The conditions at Soldier Field in January are rarely optimal. The Eagles will be better than they were, assuming they have a healthy Jalen Carter and a healthier Lane Johnson. But playing on the road creates far more uncertainty.
As for the 49ers, well, they figure to be a tougher test than the Packers. Kyle Shanahan is one of the brightest offensive minds in recent NFL history. He, Brock Purdy and the rest of the 49ers will derive plenty of motivation from the memory of their quarterbackless playoff loss to the Eagles three years ago. That being said, this 49ers team is far different from the one that destroyed the Eagles — and catapulted Dom DiSandro to celebrity status — at Lincoln Financial Field late in 2023 en route to its own Super Bowl. The defense is in shambles, absent longtime stalwarts Fred Warner at linebacker and Nick Bosa on the edge. The Niners have little pass-catching talent outside of tight end George Kittle and running back Christian McCaffrey. As long as the Eagles can stop the run, they should be fine.
At the end of the day, the Eagles are still a team that everybody must take seriously. Even as the No. 2 seed, they would have likely needed to beat Seattle on the road or the Rams at home in order to advance to the Super Bowl. They still have the third-best odds at winning the NFC, according to the online sportsbooks.
You just have to wonder. If Sirianni knew that the Lions would beat the Bears on Sunday, and that his Eagles only needed to beat the Commanders to secure the No. 2 seed, would he have done anything differently?