What to know about Monday’s NHL draft lottery that could change Flyers fortune

The Flyers season may have ended with Ivan Provorov’s overtime goal against the Chicago Blackhawks, but the organization is still waiting on two more important bounces.

As one of the 12 worst teams in the NHL this season, the Flyers have earned a spot in the NHL draft lottery. With a top-heavy 2023 draft class, a lucky bounce could drastically change the Flyers’ fortune. However, if the Flyers get yet another bad bounce, they could fall as low as No. 9.

With the lottery commencing Monday, here’s everything fans need to know:

The lottery starts at 8 p.m. Monday on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+.

With the seventh-worst regular-season record, the Flyers have a 6.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick and a 6.7% chance of earning the No. 2 pick. They have a 13.2% chance of getting one of the top two picks.

The Flyers have a 44.4% chance of holding their spot at No. 7, a 36.5% chance of falling to No. 8 and a 5.6% chance of falling to nine. Overall, there’s a 42.1% chance the Flyers are hurt instead of helped by the lottery.

It’s the year of Connor Bedard, so everyone will be hoping for No. 1. Bedard has been called a generational talent, likened to Connor McDavid. The 17-year-old center has the chance to change an organization’s future the way Jack Hughes has started to turn the New Jersey Devils around.

But even if the Flyers don’t get No. 1, No. 2 comes with a more than adequate consolation prize. In almost any other draft year, Adam Fantilli would be No. 1. The University of Michigan center also has the potential to be a game breaker.

While there’s a small chance of the Flyers falling to three, it’s almost impossible they get three (0.2%), while they cannot pick four or five, barring a trade. Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson, and Will Smith are considered to be in a third tier together after Bedard and Fantilli. Following them, there’s a bit of a dropoff, meaning the Flyers would likely get a piece for a rebuild, not a quick turnaround, at picks 7-9.

» READ MORE: The NHL draft lottery offers the Flyers a rare chance at landing a franchise-altering star

The teams who missed the playoffs earn a spot. The worse the record, the better the odds for each team.

The No. 1 pick is drawn first, followed by No. 2. After that, the rest of the draft order for teams in the lottery is determined by worst to best record.

However, a team can only jump 10 spots and can only fall two spots. So only the 11 worst teams can win the first drawing and only the 12 worst teams can win the second drawing. If the 12th-16th seeded teams gets drawn first, the worst team is locked in at No. 1, and the team who wins the draw locks their place 10 spots up from their original position.

The Flyers finished with the fourth-worst record. New Jersey, the fifth-worst team, was selected for the No. 2 pick, pushing the Flyers to fifth in the draft order. The Flyers used the No. 5 pick to select Cutter Gauthier, who is currently playing NCAA hockey for Boston College. In his freshman campaign, he finished as the team’s scoring leader.

With a top-10 spot locked in this season, the Flyers will select a top-10 pick in consecutive drafts for the first time since 1991 and 1992 when they had picks No. 6 and No. 7, respectively.

The Flyers traded away their 2023 second-round pick for Rasmus Ristolainen. However, they have two third-round picks, two fourth-round picks, one fifth-round pick, two sixth-round picks, and one seventh-round pick.

» READ MORE: Which prospects could the Flyers draft if they land pick No. 7, 8, or 9 in the lottery?