Matt Strahm, the seventh inning, and Dave Dombrowski’s high-risk trade

There were some signs that the Phillies and Matt Strahm weren’t long for this world. Small ones. The kind you see in a lot of relationships between headstrong people. Certainly nothing that suggested things were fractured beyond repair. Still, there was enough smoke to at least dampen the surprise when the Phillies decided to trade their versatile setup man to the Kansas City Royals last week.

Whatever the rationale for trading Strahm, his departure reopens a major question that appeared to be solved when the Phillies signed veteran high-leverage righty Brad Keller:

Will that Thomson have enough depth at the back of his bullpen to avoid another season of Russian roulette in the sixth and seventh innings?

We tend to focus on the eighth and ninth innings when assessing the strength of a team’s bullpen. But when you look at the game’s truly elite units, you’ll usually find that they are just as dominant in the bridge to their setup/closer combo. Think about the 2008-era Phillies. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge were one of the best setup/closer combos in the game. But think about all of the big outs you saw from guys like Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero in situations that were just as pivotal as the ones Madson and Lidge would face.

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A more recent example is last year’s San Diego Padres. The most dominant bullpen in the majors by a wide margin in 2025, San Diego relievers ranked ninth in the majors in total batters faced in the seventh inning while also allowing the fourth-fewest runs. The correlation between those two numbers makes sense: the better a manager’s options in the seventh inning, the more likely he is to go to that option rather than attempt to stretch his starting pitcher. Same goes for the sixth.

Those were the innings that killed the Phillies in their NLDS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Eight of the 13 runs that the Phillies allowed over four games came in the seventh inning. Another two came in the sixth inning.

Not all of those runs were charged to the bullpen. But that’s not the whole story. Think about the seventh inning of Game 2, when Thomson stuck with Jesús Luzardo rather than going to his bullpen. Luzardo allowed two runners to reach base, both of whom ended up scoring off Orion Kerkering, who then allowed two runs of his own.

A similar situation unfolded in the seventh inning of Game 4. Cristopher Sánchez took a 1-0 lead into the bottom half of the frame but allowed two of three batters to reach before Thomson pulled him. In fact, that game was Exhibit A for why a team needs at least three, and ideally four, arms who can thrive in situations where the outcome is in the balance. Not only did Thomson use closer Jhoan Duran in the seventh, and for five outs, he went to Luzardo for five outs in extras. The only other actual reliever who pitched in the first 10 innings: Matt Strahm.

In that context, it sure looks puzzling that the Phillies decided to trade Strahm for a middle reliever with a light big league track record (Jonathan Bowlan). How does a guy go from being a manager’s second-most-trustworthy option in a do-or-die postseason game to superfluous in barely two months?

Here was the explanation from Dave Dombrowski, who pointed out the presence of fellow lefties José Alvarado and fly-ball on the roster.

“We didn’t necessarily think we needed all three,” the Phillies’ president said. “[Strahm is] a year away from free agency. We were able to get a guy that we liked who has six years of [club control], and we think can help us right away. So you have to give to get. And we still feel good with our left-handers in the bullpen.”

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Which is all well and good. Except, the Phillies never looked at Strahm like a typical lefty. He was even more effective against righties, in fact, with a .585 OPS against in 2025.

While the Phillies may like Bowlan, who has an impressive frame and an intriguing pitch mix as well as six more years of club control (albeit at the age of 29), Strahm’s presence in trade rumors over the last several weeks suggests the Phillies weren’t necessarily targeting the Royals’ righty. The driving force in this trade was that the Phillies were ready to move on from Strahm.

For some justifiable reasons.

Most conspicuous were Strahm’s comments after Kerkering’s fielding error in the Phillies’ NLDS elimination loss to the Dodgers, when he suggested that the team didn’t do enough pitcher’s fielding practice. A few days later, Dombrowski disputed Strahm’s characterization, going so far as to point out that Strahm did not participate in the PFP drills the team did have before the NLDS.

Not exactly bridge-burning stuff, there. But Strahm also showed some signs of decline in his age-33 season. When he was a well-deserved All-Star in 2024, he struck out a third of the batters he faced while walking 4.6% of them. Last year, both of those metrics worsened. He still struck out a solid 27.3% of batters, but his walk rate rose by almost 50%.

In fact, Strahm’s underlying results declined across the board, a clear indication that his stuff had diminished. Always a fly-ball pitcher, Strahm’s ground-ball rate plummeted by nearly a third in 2025, dropping from 31.9% to 23.8%. That decline correlated with a noticeable drop in life on his fastball, with his average velocity falling from 93.4 in 2024 to 92.3 in 2025, per Statcast.

Only four relievers in the majors have logged more than his 212⅔ innings since the Phillies signed him in 2023, three of them are younger than Strahm.

There’s a realistic chance that this move looks like a nothingburger at worst by the end of next season.

Make no mistake, though. It’s a move that weakens the Phillies bullpen in the short term. Mostly, it puts a lot more pressure on Duran, Keller, and Alvarado to remain healthy and effective. If all three pitch to their potential, the Phillies will be plenty OK in tight games. But Alvarado is in his decline phase and is coming off a season where he missed 80 games and the postseason because of a PED suspension. Keller could be a one-year wonder. Behind them is Kerkering, who has yet to blossom into the high-leverage ace the Phillies envisioned and who will have to overcome the psychological trauma of his debilitating mistake in Game 4 of the NLDS.

No team would be comfortable with those kind of question marks in the ninth inning. But the seventh can be just as important, particularly when your roster is built around its starting rotation. Last year, Phillies relievers allowed the fifth-most runs in the majors in seventh innings, despite facing the fewest batters (513, or 101 fewer than the Padres). It has been a long-running theme under Dombrowski. Since 2021, the Phillies’ bullpen has the ninth-highest seventh-inning ERA in the majors (4.46), per FanGraphs.

Trading Strahm was a defensible move. But it could easily become one that Dombrowski regrets.