Sports betting: Ravens just don’t lose in the preseason — and sportsbooks have noticed
Baltimore has won an NFL-record 20 preseason games in a row. And the Ravens are an astonishing 18-1-1 against the point spread.
It’s one of the wilder statistical oddities to come down the pike in a long time. The Ravens have won an NFL record 20 preseason games in a row. It’s a streak that started in 2016, encompasses 10 road games, and, perhaps most importantly, includes an astounding 18-1-1 mark against the point spread. Have the bettors noticed?
“One hundred percent, yes,” said Ed Salmons, VP of risk management for the Westgate in Las Vegas. “The Ravens have been a machine in the preseason and their lines probably start 2 points higher towards them [because of the streak].”
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Baltimore hosts Tennessee on Thursday night, exactly six years to the day the streak began with a three-point win against Carolina. The Ravens, as of Monday afternoon, were laying 4 to Tennessee. It’s ever so slightly the highest number of the 16 preseason games this week. The Ravens’ money line is -189. Caesars over the weekend had them at -208 before dropping them down nearly 20 cents.
The Ravens broke the Packers’ 1959-62 record last year when they trashed Washington in their final preseason game, but they also lost starting running back J.K. Dobbins for the 2021 season in that same game. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has a knack for winning in the preseason; he was 18-6 in exhibition games from 2009-14, two years before this streak started.
But losing Dobbins set in motion a running back merry-go-round last season. Baltimore was third in the NFL in rushing yards, but that’s largely because quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 64 yards per game.
“I believe it really became well known last season and for sure has been a factor coming into this year,” said Andy Morrissey, trader for WynnBet. “The Ravens opened -3 and got bet up to -4.5 until Harbaugh announced Jackson and [tight end Mark] Andrews will not play. The line dipped down to -3.5 for a bit but was bet back up to -4, where it is now.
“I would say [Baltimore-Tennessee] has gotten more handle than usual compared to the other preseason games so far,” he added. “I expect it to be a popular game for us this week and I imagine that they will continue to bet the Ravens throughout the preseason.”
Inside the 20-game streak
Started: Aug. 11, 2016, when Baltimore beat Carolina
Wins at home: 9
Wins on road: 10
Wins on neutral field: 1 (Canton, Ohio)
Most wins vs. opponent: 4, Washington
Games won by 10+ points: 12
Points scored: 477 (23.9 per game)
Points allowed: 219 (11.0 per game)
Against the spread: 18-1-1
When they didn’t cover: Hall of Fame game, 2018. Beat Bears, 17-16, but were laying 2.5.
2022 preseason schedule: vs. Tennessee (Thursday), at Arizona (Aug. 21), vs. Washington (Aug. 27).
Parlay pays off
A couple of notes on the FanDuel bettor who hit an impressive four-leg parlay, using four players to have two or more RBIs on Sunday:
Colorado’s C.J. Cron (+470) had a two-run double in the sixth inning for the Rockies, who scored just four runs total.
The Mets’ Pete Alonso (+490) did his part early with another two-run double in the third.
Angels infielder David Fletcher, who missed nearly three months after surgery to repair leg and abdominal muscles, had the longest odds at +1100. He came into the weekend with five RBIs but knocked in three runs on both Saturday and Sunday.
The parlay got home when Freddie Freeman (+450) had his second RBI single in the seventh inning of the Sunday night game for the Dodgers. The unidentified bettor won $1,109.79 and probably spent most of Monday wishing the amount wagered was larger than 50 cents.
This & that
Caesars had World Series exactas up in a few markets recently. Dodgers to beat Yankees was 10-1, same as Yankees to beat Dodgers. Phillies to beat Yankees or Yankees to beat Phillies was 100-1. Phillies-Astros was 125-1, Phillies-Blue Jays was 300-1 both ways. Caesars odds on the Phillies to win the World Series: 40-1.
Salem High’s Jonathan Taylor, who led the NFL in rushing last year for the Colts, was getting 31% of the bets for offensive player of the year at DraftKings, but just 8% of the handle. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson had generated 29% of the handle and 11% of the slips written. Taylor is 10-1 to win the award. Jefferson is 20-1.
The Raiders were up 27-3 when the Jaguars scored that touchdown with three minutes left in Thursday’s Hall of Fame game. Most of the spread money at Caesars was on the Raiders, including a $55,000 bet made in Washington D.C., so the TD was a nonfactor there. But it certainly mattered to the over/under, which opened at 33.5 points and went off at 30.5 as 73% of the handle was on the under. Whoops.