Sports betting: Baseball odds look a lot different today than before the season
Also, an Atlantic City casino reimagines its sportsbook.
The Cardinals are in town this weekend, and they are bringing with them the unlikely favorite for the National League MVP Award. The defending MVP, Phillies linchpin Bryce Harper, will, of course, not be joining the fun as he recovers from thumb surgery.
It’s admittedly unfair to look at preseason odds in the middle of a season. But it’s still neat to take an account of what the bookies and bettors were thinking in the spring versus how they are feeling today. With that, here are a few interesting baseball markets and various odds on them.
NL MVP
Opened: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+400), Juan Soto, Nationals (+400), Bryce Harper, Phillies (+800).
Today: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (+100), Pete Alonso, Mets (+400), Manny Machado, Padres (+500).
What’s happened: This market was sent into a tailspin in March when it was revealed that Tatis needed wrist surgery after a motorcycle accident in December. … Harper’s also hurt, and Soto has been miserable. … Goldschmidt, who was around 75-1 at some places in mid-May, now is even money. Through Wednesday, he was hitting .342 with 19 homers, 65 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.054. Whew.
AL MVP
Opened: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (+400), Mike Trout, Angels (+450), Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+500).
Today: Aaron Judge, Yankees (-125), Ohtani (+300), Trout (+700).
What’s happened: Judge is the best player on what’s easily been the first half’s best team, but Ohtani isn’t going away. On June 21, he had two homers and eight RBIs. The very next day, he shut out the Royals over eight innings and struck out 13. Unlike last year, when the books got hammered when Ohtani opened at 60-1 and went on to win the MVP, his odds haven’t eclipsed 5-1 at any point that we’ve seen.
NL Cy Young
Opened: Jacob deGrom, Mets (+300), Max Scherzer, Mets (+500), Corbin Burnes, Brewers (+700).
Today: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins (+175), Joe Musgrove, Padres (+450), Burnes (+450).
What’s happened: DeGrom hasn’t pitched all season after injuring his right shoulder in spring training, while Scherzer has been out since May 18 with a left oblique strain. … Alcantara was 50-1 when Westgate opened this prop on Feb. 9. He’s 8-3 with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last 10 starts. … Musgrove was 40-1 on Feb. 9. … The Phillies’ Zack Wheeler opened at 25-1 but is down to 7-1. Aaron Nola, third in the majors in innings pitched at 96⅔, is 16-1 at Westgate. Those are the same odds as Scherzer (sad trombone).
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ Mark Appel makes ‘surreal’ big-league debut nine years after being No. 1 pick
AL Cy Young
Opened: Gerrit Cole, Yankees (+300), Shane Bieber, Guardians (+450), Robbie Ray, Mariners (+800).
Today: Shane McClanahan, Rays (+275), Justin Verlander, Astros (+325), Alek Manoah, Blue Jays (+600).
What’s happened: McClanahan opened at 40-1, so he’d be a nice ticket to have. His numbers (1.77 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) are better than Alcantara’s. … Manoah, the third favorite, was not on Westgate’s original board, which had 38 players down to Minnesota’s Dylan Bundy at 500-1. He’s 9-2 with a 2.09 ERA this season, and 18-4, 2.70 in his two seasons in the majors. … Verlander, 39, was 20-1 preseason. He’s 10-3 and has a chance at his second 20-win season in three years. … Ray, last year’s winner, is now 100-1. … Cole, on the other hand, is hanging tough as Caesars’ fourth favorite at 8-1.
World Series
Opened: Dodgers (+550), Astros (+800), Yankees (+1000), Braves (+1000).
Today: Yankees (+425), Dodgers (+450), Astros (+600), Mets (+650).
What’s happened: There was some news on this front this week as the Dodgers were replaced as the favorites for the first time since the opening lines came out in November. Caesars is on the hook for a $3 million wager from renowned Houston bettor Mattress Mack when the Astros were 10-1. The Phillies are around 35-1, largely unchanged despite Harper’s injury.
NL East
Opened: Braves (+120), Mets (+200), Phillies (+350), Marlins (+1400), Nationals (+4000).
Today: Mets (-180), Braves (+160), Phillies (+1800), Marlins (+15,000), Nationals (+100,000).
What’s happened: The Mets came into Thursday’s games up three games on the Braves despite not having their top two pitchers. It has put Buck Showalter in the lead for his fourth manager of the year award with his fourth team.
Home run leader
Opened: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+1100), Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+1200), Pete Alonso, Mets (+1600), Aaron Judge, Yankees (+1600).
Today: Judge (-140), Mike Trout, Angels (+600), Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+600), Alonso (+750).
What’s happened: Judge’s 29 bombs were leading the way heading into the final day of June. Caesars had an over/under prop of 61.5 homers for the Yankees slugger, with over +340, under -450. He’s on pace for 59.7. … Trout (+2000 preseason) and Alvarez (+2500 preseason) were second with 23 homers. … Kyle Schwarber, who was in a tie for fifth at 22 homers, was 50-1 at Caesars in late March. He was 9-1 on Thursday morning.
He said it
“The Yankees being this good definitely increases handle for the futures pool. I think it’s a dream scenario for bookmakers and TV ratings. Both New York teams are in contention, as well as the Dodgers and Astros. I’m sure the execs at MLB [are] licking their chops. Anything that’s good for ratings is probably good for bookmakers as well. The Yankees are always going to draw some extra money coming in, so if we had a Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series for instance, the handle would be through the roof.”
— Eric Biggio, top baseball bookmaker for Caesars
This & that
Caesars has a prop bet on Judge to lead the majors in homers and the Yankees to win the World Series. Yes is +525, No is -800. Judge is -140 to win the home run title with the field at +110.
The news that Kevin Durant wants out of Brooklyn knocked NBA title odds off the board at several sportsbooks on Thursday.
The 76ers were sixth in PointsBet’s odds on Durant’s landing spot at 12-1. Phoenix was even money followed by Miami at +125. Dallas (4-1), Chicago (7-1), and Portland were next (10-1). This wager is not approved in Pennsylvania or New Jersey.
Six-time defending champ Joey Chestnut opened -3000 at BetMGM to win Monday’s hot dog eating contest at Coney Island, with the field priced at +1000. Wagering is available in New Jersey, but not Pennsylvania. … On the ladies’ side, Miki Sudo is -5000 to the field’s +1100. Sudo, who had won the previous seven contests, sat out last year because she was pregnant. So if she wants to win again, she’ll have to ketchup (groan).
The LIV Tour’s first North American event started Thursday in Portland, Ore. DraftKings, which saw 13% of its action on Patrick Reed and 11% on Brooks Koepka, was able to book it in six U.S. states and Ontario. Betting on the upstart tour is not yet being offered in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
New book in AC
The Ocean Casino Resort in Atlantic City will officially open its new sportsbook area at 4 p.m. Friday.
The plush lounge chairs that faced the row of betting windows are gone, as are the betting windows themselves. They’ve been replaced by blackjack and roulette tables. The square bar, which acted almost like an unwelcome barrier, is now in the center of the room.
“The Gallery will serve as the centerpiece of our gaming area, effectively completing our recent $25 million casino floor transformation,” said Bill Callahan, the casino’s general manager.
The days of the old-fashioned sportsbook are over, mostly because up to 90% of betting these days is done online or via phone.
Callahan is hopeful his new digs will add “a fully-immersive experience; with gaming, bar, and sports betting all in one centralized location.”