Sports betting: Will Rory McIlroy make history at a historic U.S. Open course?
McIlroy is a 10-1 favorite at the iconic Country Club in Brookline, Mass. Justin Thomas is at 11-1 and defending champion Jon Rahm is at 14-1.
The quaint and treacherous Country Club, site of this weekend’s U.S. Open, is to Boston what Merion Golf Club is to Philadelphia. Like Merion, it was built in the 19th century and helped lay the foundation for golf in the United States. Amateur Francis Ouimet’s win in the 1913 U.S. Open, with 10-year-old caddie Eddie Lowery, still resonates.
“The fact that he grew up just off the 17th hole here,” Rory McIlroy explained, “and we’re still talking about it to this day over 100 years on. That’s so cool. That’s the great thing about this sport.”
What this U.S. Open has that Merion never did is nationwide sports betting, and McIlroy has emerged as the favorite. One of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, McIlroy is coming off an impressive win Sunday at the Canadian Open. McIlroy was around 16-1 to win the U.S. Open a month ago. As of Wednesday, he was 10-1.
“Rory is where the action has been, so hence the move,” said Anthony Salleroli, top golf trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “I’d say [Justin] Thomas would be the favorite … Based off true odds, I yield to [Jon] Rahm, though, out of respect for him being the defending champion. But Rory wouldn’t be too far out there.”
Thomas is 11-1, Rahm is 14-1. In between them is Scottie Scheffler at 12-1. Caesars took a $500 play on Scheffler in February when he was 40-1, which would be worth a cool $20,000. The pros in the business call that finding closing line value.
PointsBet was seeing slightly a little more money on Thomas than McIlroy as of Wednesday afternoon.
“Two key metrics we looked at were driving efficiency [the combination of accuracy off the tee with distance] and accuracy from 150-200 yards,” said Michael Hollenberg, golf analyst at PointsBet. “One key player that we think could provide value is Xander Schauffele at +2300.”
Schauffele is second in driving efficiency, fourth in accuracy.
“Every [U.S. Open] winner in the last 10 years has been in the top 30 of the World Golf Rankings,” Salleroli said. “So it’s a cream-of-the-crop tournament. We’ve seen a lot of chalky bets come in, meaning JT and Rory.”
List of the week
Jon Rahm in 2021 had the third-lowest opening odds to win a U.S. Open in the last 15 years. Here are the recent winners and their chances entering the tournament, according to SportsOddsHistory.com:
2021: Jon Rahm (Torrey Pines) 10-1
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (Winged Foot) 25-1
2019: Gary Woodland (Pebble Beach) 60-1
2018: Brooks Koepka (Shinnecock Hills) 25-1
2017: Brooks Koepka (Erin Hills) 30-1
2016: Dustin Johnson (Oakmont) 12-1
2015: Jordan Spieth (Chambers Bay) 8-1
2014: Martin Kaymer (Pinehurst No. 2) 40-1
2013: Justin Rose (Merion) 25-1
2012: Webb Simpson (Olympic Club) 50-1
2011: Rory McIlroy (Congressional) 20-1
2010: Graeme McDowell (Pebble Beach) 66-1
2009: Lucas Glover (Bethpage Black) 150-1
2008: Tiger Woods (Torrey Pines) 2-1
2007: Angel Cabrera (Oakmont) 100-1
This & that
Mito Pereira, who was 150-1 entering the PGA Championship before faltering in the final round, is 66-1 to win the U.S. Open. Will Zalatoris, who lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas in the PGA Championship, is 25-1. Tom Gable, head of the Borgata’s race and sportsbook, said Zalatoris is his biggest liability.
A couple of notable wagers at BetMGM include $1,000 on Harold Varner at 100-1, $1,000 on Kevin Kisner at 250-1, and $2,947 on Sam Burns at 33-1.
DraftKings has it at -140 that the winner will be an American, +225 that he will be European, +1200 that he will be from Asia.
Interesting odds on the best first-round score at DraftKings among the threesome of McIlroy (+135), Schauffele (+170), and Hideki Matsuyama (+225). These prop bets also get a lot of interest. “As usual with us, the matchups are going to make or break the week for us,” said Gable. “We have a couple six-figure wagers already.”
And finally
“The biggest liability for the book is Phil Mickelson by a pretty wide margin,” said PointsBet’s Hollenberg. PointsBet had Phil at 200-1 as of Wednesday afternoon. “So we’re hoping for no repeat of the 2021 PGA Championship.”