The keys to Villanova’s beating Kansas go beyond controlling the pace of play

NEW ORLEANS – Mirror images, these Villanova Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks are not. They get to the same place in different ways. One team goes about its business in quick, efficient bursts, looking for express lanes. The other takes its sweet time, happy to play in rush-hour traffic, probing every second for opposing weaknesses.

The two will face off at 6:09 p.m. Saturday in the first NCAA semifinal inside the Superdome. Jay Wright suggested that anyone looking to their last Final Four matchup, in 2018, when Villanova dispatched Kansas, 95-79, with brute force and white-hot shooting, might be missing the boat. That game offers a funhouse mirror.

“We don’t have the firepower that that [2018 Villanova] team had,” Wright said. “Kansas is a way faster and much more explosive and much more perimeter-oriented team than that team. So it’s almost like we’re flip-flopped in terms of what the teams are like. So different.”

Kansas coach Bill Self said he watched the 2018 game this week just to check some details, like how when ‘Nova backed guards down into the post, whether they had the same action off the ball.

“I got through about 12 minutes of it,” Self said. “And after that, it was very obvious that I wasn’t going to learn very much from it.”

The speed of this Kansas group has been a recurring theme this tournament.

» READ MORE: David Murphy: Villanova is not at home among the titans, and that’s what makes the Wildcats great

“What’s really impressive about them is — there’s teams that play in transition, there are a lot of teams that do that,” Wright said, explaining that Kansas does that, but not just that. “In their half-court offense, they cut so fast.”

Playing short-handed without one of their stars, Justin Moore, narrows the margin of error for Villanova. Inside baskets won’t be easy to find, either. Kansas blocked 11 shots in getting past Providence in the Sweet 16.

Interestingly, it is hard to find anyone inside this massive football stadium who doesn’t give Villanova a big-time chance. Not just because of history. Oddsmakers threw a few extra points toward the Jayhawks with Moore out, so Kansas is about a four-point favorite.

The efficiency rankings, however, suggest an even battle, both teams getting it done at both ends of the court. Speed advantages sometimes can turn against a team if it isn’t willing to be patient adapting to Villanova’s style. KenPom.com has this as almost a toss-up, Kansas with a 53% chance of winning.

There are tapes that are worth watching for both schools. Since Kansas played both Providence and Creighton in this NCAA Tournament, both teams can watch the other playing those squads, see what worked and what didn’t. Self remarked how Villanova’s going 4-1 against those two Big East opponents gained his respect. Villanova can watch those Kansas NCAA games and use Creighton and Providence almost as scout teams.

Kansas has a first-team All-American in Ochai Agbaji. Advantage, Jayhawks.

Villanova has the best point guard here in Collin Gillespie. Advantage, Wildcats.

With Moore out, nobody can debate that Kansas has the depth advantage.

Coaching? The smart guys have learned never to underestimate Wright’s getting his team through 40 minutes during March Madness.

Wright offered a little side window into his thinking Friday when he was asked about integrating guard Bryan Antoine more into the offense after Moore’s injury, and what are the realistic expectations he has about what Antoine can give? Wright offered a similar thought as he had before the Houston game, how you’ve got to get on the floor with teams to really see what’s that team is all about.

“Probably other coaches do this better — they can figure it out before the game,” Wright said. “But there’s certain things for us we’ve got to get on the floor, see what’s working. Do we need [Chris Arcidiacono’s] ball-handling more? Do we need Bryan’s speed and defense more? Where does it fit? Do guys get in foul trouble?”

» READ MORE: Villanova’s Chris Arcidiacono should play a key role as he gets his own Final Four experience

Staying nimble in-game, is no small thing. During the regular season, Moore was often an X-factor in the sense that for all his contributions, if he tacked at least 16 points on top of that, Villanova had a really strong chance. Teams that kept Moore below that saw their chances rise dramatically, as in games Moore played, Villanova was 17-1 when he scored 16 or more points, and 12-6 when he did not.

Now, maybe Caleb Daniels becomes that X-factor guy. Or maybe Eric Dixon is an XX-factor. Dixon scored 24 points against Connecticut in February when Moore was out, ‘Nova taking out UConn, 85-74.

“They did try to post their guards still, even though Justin’s one of their better posting guards,” Self said of that UConn game, correctly reciting how Villanova made 6 of 11 threes and was 21 of 22 from the line in that game. “I don’t know if it showed me a lot of different stuff, but it showed me that no matter who they’ve got out there, they’re capable of playing the same way they’ve been playing.”

It’s Self’s job obviously to disrupt that. The real X-factor might be whether Villanova hits enough three-pointers. Creighton made 12, to only three for Kansas, but the Jayhawks got 19 more two-point shots, enough to survive.

Against Providence, the Jayhawks made just 2 of 14 from deep, but Providence made just 4 of 23. Kansas survived, 66-61. In the Elite Eight, Miami made just 3 of 21 threes in squandering a six-point halftime lead, eventually getting routed by the Jayhawks, 76-50.

Both these teams have been doubted. Self pointed to Kentucky’s going into Allen Fieldhouse on Jan. 29, saying the Wildcats “put it on us,” in a 80-62 defeat. Villanova was swept by Marquette. The Golden Eagles were a good squad but Villanova wasn’t Final Four quality heading into February.

Looking for breadcrumbs from past games can be a fool’s errand. This one will stand in the history books on its own. Just don’t miss those early minutes, when the breadcrumbs will be all over the Superdome floor.

“We’re going to have to play extremely intelligent, tough against them,” Wright said. He added, “I think we’re ready to do it.”