A major winter storm is looking more likely for Philly, with the snow expected to stick around

The details are likely to remain elusive well into the weekend, but on Wednesday evidence was accumulating that the Philadelphia region could become a winter wonderland for the remainder of January.

“We’re definitely going to get some snow,” said Alex Staarmann, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, which probably won’t make a first accumulation guess until Thursday afternoon. Snow could begin as early as Saturday night and continue into Monday.

Philadelphia would have a 90% to 100% chance of at least 6 inches of snow, according to weather service analysis of a blend of computer models, with up to an 80% shot at a foot or more. However, the individual models are having their usual squabbles, with the American being the snowiest.

In any event, “It could be a significant storm for most of the region,” said Staarmann.

And that applies to rest of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. AccuWeather Inc. estimated that snow and ice during the weekend could affect half the nation’s population.

Said Stephen Morgan, a meteorologist with Fox Weather, “it’s one of the most sprawling systems we’ve seen in several years.”

Predictably, computer models have been using the map for a Ouija board, moving around the zones of the expected heaviest snows.

Earlier in the week, it appeared that the region would be near the northern edge of the snowfall; however on Wednesday the models bumped the snow north, increasing the chances that snow could mix with sleet and freezing rain in Delaware and South Jersey.

The snow could mix with sleet at the height of the storm even in the Philly region, the weather service said. That would hold down accumulations: Sleet is slow to accumulate. Conversely, since it is pure ice, it is slower to melt.

Should any rain get mixed in, it would freeze on contact: The upper air may be warmer, but at the surface temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the teens Sunday.

Despite the potential mixing, it’s at least possible that Philly gets its first double-digit snowfall since Jan. 22, 2018, said Paul Dorian, a meteorologist with Arcfield Weather, based in Valley Forge.

In the short term, Thursday may be a day to savor. It’s heading into the mid-40s, with nothing falling from the skies. The cold begins to filter in Friday, and highs will be in the teens Saturday.

After the precipitation shuts off Sunday night or Monday, whatever has fallen won’t be in a hurry to disappear, Staarmann said.

Temperatures may not get above freezing for several days after the snow stops, he said. Wind chills are expected to be in the single digits Monday morning, and below zero Tuesday.

“This overall very cold weather pattern is likely to continue into next weekend potentially beyond,” the weather service said.

“The next couple of weeks will feature some of the worst weather winter has to offer,” Dorian said.

Said Fox’s Morgan, “The overall pattern in the northeast seems to be locked in to a colder than average at least to Groundhog Day.”

Phil might want a “do not disturb” sign this year outside his burrow.