The stars, storylines, and potential upsets to know in the NCAA women’s tournament
Connecticut, UCLA, South Carolina, and Texas are the clear favorites to reach the Final Four, but there are a few programs that could challenge the top quartet.
The NCAA women’s tournament is usually pretty chalky, and this one likely won’t be any different. But that’s not just because of the perennial early-round home advantage for the top four seeds in each region. Or even because the bracket hasn’t set up many potential upsets where they more likely happen: in games between two teams traveling to someone else’s floor.
This time, it’s because of the strength of the four No. 1 seeds: Connecticut, UCLA, South Carolina, and Texas. They are so far ahead of almost the entire rest of the field that they’ll all be clear favorites to reach the Final Four. And if they do, that will make up for some of the dullness along the way.
The star names will only become more well-known from now until then. UConn has expected national player of the year Sarah Strong and potential No. 1 WNBA draft pick Azzi Fudd. UCLA has Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, and Gabriela Jaquez. South Carolina has Joyce Edwards and Raven Johnson, and Texas has Madison Booker and Rori Harmon.
The alignment of regions means there would be a UConn-South Carolina matchup in the semifinals, which has never happened. Geno Auriemma and Dawn Staley have met three times in the tournament before: the 2025 and 2023 title games and the 2018 East Regional final.
Who can challenge the top quartet? The list starts with No. 2 seed LSU. The Tigers are led by veteran guards Flau’jae Johnson and South Carolina transfer MiLaysia Fulwiley, and coached by four-time national champion Kim Mulkey. She’s as controversial as she is successful, but she knows how to win in March.
LSU finished fourth in the ultra-competitive SEC, thanks to a January swoon when they lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt. They also lost at Texas and twice to South Carolina, at home in the regular season, then in the conference tournament semifinals. But the rest of the record is stacked with big wins: at Duke, home vs. Texas, and two over Oklahoma.
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Expect the Tigers to eat up either Villanova or Texas Tech in the second round, on the way to the Elite Eight. (And yes, Villanova can win that first-round game.)
No. 2 seeds have interesting stories
UCLA might be quite annoyed that the best No. 2 seed landed in its region. Not only would anyone want to avoid the Tigers, but the 31-1 Bruins believe they deserved the No. 1 overall seed.
They took the regular season and tournament in the Big Ten, a tougher conference than the Big East, with 12 wins over teams ranked at the time of the contest. Their only loss was to Texas on a neutral floor, and it was back on Thanksgiving.
LSU might in turn be annoyed that a rematch with Duke looms in the Sweet 16. Though the Blue Devils had six nonconference losses — including South Carolina, UCLA, and LSU in one seven-day stretch — they won the ACC regular season and tournament. They finished No. 8 in the NCAA’s NET rating, and the fourth No. 2 seed, Iowa, finished 10th.
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Another No. 2 seed, Vanderbilt, will get a lot of attention. Guard Mikayla Blakes is the nation’s top scorer at 27 points per game, and also averages 4.4 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.9 steals.
The Commodores started the season 20-0, including wins over LSU at home and Michigan on a neutral floor. Then came a trip to South Carolina, and Staley reminded them who runs the show with a 103-74 flattening.
Vanderbilt’s head coach is UConn legend Shea Ralph. If you think the selection committee has a sense of humor, you might think it’s no coincidence that the Huskies are the No. 1 in that region.
Michigan is the No. 2 in Texas’ region, and has a high-ceiling pair of sophomores in Syla Swords and Olivia Olson. But the Wolverines could be tested early by the N.C. State-Tennessee winner, with a little extra juice if it’s the Lady Vols.
Further down the field
There are storylines among the No. 3 seeds, too. We’ve mentioned Duke already, and two others deserve attention.
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First is TCU. Guard Olivia Miles earned fame at Notre Dame, and this season led the Horned Frogs to the Big 12 regular-season title. She’ll be another marquee WNBA draft pick, and forward Marta Suárez could join her in the first round. Add that to Iowa being arguably overseeded, and there’s a recipe for an Elite 8 run.
The other is Ohio State. The Buckeyes are stuck with Notre Dame as the nearby No. 6 seed and Vanderbilt as the No. 2. But Jaloni Cambridge has pro potential, and Notre Dame will have its hands full with Fairfield.
That’s the cue to turn to where the real upsets could lurk.
Fairfield went 28-4 this season, won at Villanova early, and tested itself later with losses to North Carolina on a neutral floor and at Iowa. The AP poll’s voters recognize the Stags’ quality, putting them two spots outside the top 25.
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South Jersey native Hannah Hidalgo has the Fighting Irish getting back on track after some ugly stretches in conference play. She’s third in the nation in scoring at 25.2 points per game, is leading the nation again with 5.41 steals per game, and is averaging 5.3 assists and 6.4 rebounds too.
How will it go on a neutral floor? Well, let’s see how neutral it actually is. The game will be played at Ohio State right after the Buckeyes’ opener, and if the home fans stick around, they’ll give Notre Dame an earful.
Richmond, led by former Cardinal O’Hara star Maggie Doogan, got stuck in the play-in game after losing to George Mason in the conference semifinals. But we’ll back the Spiders to beat a Nebraska team that got in despite finishing 12th in the Big Ten with an 18-12 record, including 7-11 in conference play. After that, if Doogan’s on, the Spiders can take a swing at Baylor in a game that Duke will host.
If you don’t count an 8-9 game as an upset, then you won’t count Princeton beating Oklahoma State. But we will on the principle of an Ivy League team beating a Big 12 team, even if that Ivy League team is deservedly No. 23 in the AP poll. The Cowgirls didn’t even receive votes this week, though they are 29th in the NET to the Tigers’ 38.
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