What is the best-case scenario for K.C. Keeler’s first season at Temple? Bowl eligibility could be in the cards.

One common theme, from K.C. Keeler’s introductory news conference at Temple to preseason practices, was his insistence on not being average.

But when it comes to the 2025 football season, Keeler’s first as the Owls’ coach after 11 seasons at Sam Houston State, being average might be considered a win for a program that hasn’t finished with a winning record in six years.

Rarely does success happen in Year 1 of a new regime. Al Golden was 1-11 in his first season on North Broad and didn’t achieve a winning season until Year 4.

» READ MORE: Temple is eager to put its past run of losing football seasons to bed. In some cases, literally.

Matt Rhule was 2-10 in his first season and led the Owls to a .500 record in his second year before taking a major leap forward in Year 3 with an American Conference title game appearance and a 10-win season, a first for the program in 36 seasons.

Steve Addazio, Geoff Collins, and Rod Carey led Temple to winning records in their first seasons as head coach in 2011, 2017, and 2019, respectively, but one could argue that Golden and Rhule’s imprints on those rosters were still evident.

Let’s look back at Keeler’s coaching history. Here are his first-year records at Rowan, Delaware, and Sam Houston State, respectively: 11-2 (lost in Division III championship), 6-6, and 11-5 (lost in FCS semifinal). Keeler largely had quick success in his first year taking over those programs.

But in Sam Houston’s first season in the FBS in 2023, the Bearkats finished 3-9, a familiar record for Temple over the last four seasons.

Keeler is adamant that the resources at Temple have been “phenomenal,” compared to Sam Houston. Those resources will be put to the test, as six of Temple’s 12 opponents this season finished with winning records, and two teams finished one game under .500 last year.

Can the Owls become bowl eligible in 2025? The climb will be steep for a one-year turnaround, but American foe Tulane went from a 2-10 record in 2021 to conference champion and Cotton Bowl winners in the 2022 season. And that will be one of the teams Keeler and the Owls will be chasing to model.

The Owls have lost their last eight games against Power Four opponents dating to 2019. Their last win against a power conference team was under Carey on Sept. 28, 2019, against Georgia Tech of the ACC.

» READ MORE: Temple’s not tipping its hand at quarterback as opener at UMass approaches

The closest they’ve gotten since was a 16-14 loss to Rutgers in 2022. Temple has two Power Four teams on the schedule in 2025: Oklahoma from the SEC and Georgia Tech.

The Owls quickly lost pace with the Sooners in last season’s 51-3 loss in Norman, Okla. Oklahoma upgraded at quarterback this offseason by adding transfer John Mateer, hired a new offensive coordinator (Ben Arbuckle), and has a number of key returning players.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, is coming off a second consecutive 7-6 season under Brent Key, who took over the program first as an interim head coach after serving on former Temple coach Collins’ staff. The squad will be led by quarterback Haynes King and dynamic running back Jamal Haynes.

Under former head coach Stan Drayton, Temple lost by an average of 28.6 points in five games against power-conference opponents. To build momentum before conference play, keeping matchups against Oklahoma (Sept. 13) and at Georgia Tech (Sept. 20) close could go a long way.

Keeler has alluded to Temple having a run-first mindset on offense. Adding Jay Ducker, his running back at Sam Houston, reinforced the mindset, along with adding dual-threat quarterback Gevani McCoy, who’s in a battle for the starting role with Evan Simon.

Offensive coordinator Tyler Walker had tremendous success in his lone season calling plays at Montana State. His offense led the FCS in scoring (40.8 points per game), rushing yards per attempt (6.53), and red zone scoring percentage (97%) and finished second in rushing yards per game (294.9) and second in total offense (478.8 yards per game).

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But what will the Owls look like on defense? Last season, Temple struggled getting to the quarterback and had just 14 sacks (tied for fourth-fewest in the FBS), generating turnovers (1.3 per game, tied for 71st), ranked 123rd in scoring defense (35.4), and allowed the third-highest total of rushing yards in the FBS (226.1 per game).

Defensive coordinator Brian L. Smith, who previously ran Rice’s defense, has a tall task in improving the Owls defense. Smith’s defense at Rice in 2024 ranked eighth nationally in passing yards per game (173.8) and held opposing quarterbacks to a 55.4% completion rate, which ranked 11th.

Stopping the run will be key for Temple, which will face Army and Navy during its American Conference slate.

Since 2021, the Owls have 20 consecutive road losses, with all 12 wins in that span coming at Lincoln Financial Field. They haven’t won a conference road game since beating South Florida in November 2019, nearly six years ago.

Of those 20 consecutive road losses, just three were by one score or less. This season, Temple has two nonconference road games (Massachusetts and Georgia Tech) and four road conference games (Charlotte, Tulsa, Army, and North Texas).

» READ MORE: At Temple, K.C. Keeler’s plans for recruiting, NIL strategy, and the transfer portal are taking shape

Finding consistency away from the Linc could be the difference between a losing season and bowl eligibility.

Having a reliable running game would help mitigate the Owls’ road woes. Last season, they ranked 126th in rushing yards per game (92.8) and 127th in first downs per game (15.6). Stringing together long drives and finding success in the red zone (only 16 of 33 trips last season led to a touchdown) will be deciding factors for a program looking for a turnaround.