Loss at UConn showed a gap but did little to change Villanova’s NCAA Tournament outlook

STORRS, Conn. — Let’s get this out of the way first: There’s no shame in losing to the No. 1 team in the country.

While a win over Connecticut would have helped Villanova’s NCAA Tournament chances, the loss on Saturday simply means the next two weeks are the most important two weeks of the season. Realistically, that’s been the case ever since the Wildcats lost five in a row in January.

Though the 78-54 final score made the game look less competitive than it was, it did show why one team is hunting a second straight NCAA title while the other needs a great two weeks just to get into the dance.

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Some of Villanova’s success in recent weeks has come from opponents not paying close enough attention to scouting reports. The Wildcats are a below-average three-point shooting team save for Brendan Hausen, a 42.1% three-point shooter who can change the game instantly.

Hausen had terrorized opponents and scored in double figures in five consecutive games entering Saturday. Georgetown coach Ed Cooley profanely rued his team’s lack of attention to the scouting report after Hausen made four threes on 10 attempts in Villanova’s 70-54 win in Washington on Feb. 16.

UConn, however, executed its defense perfectly, only allowing Hausen space to get two shots in 18 minutes. He missed both.

Villanova’s offense wilted without him. The Wildcats managed 21 points in the first half and shot 12.5% from three on the night, and the Huskies credited the scouting report.

“They have two key three-point shooters [Hausen and Eric Dixon] that we had to focus on,” said UConn’s Tristen Newton, who finished with a triple-double. “Ran them off the line today.”

UConn also picked on Villanova’s pace, or, more accurately, lack thereof. The Wildcats play at the 20th-slowest tempo in the country, according to KenPom, and while UConn isn’t much faster, it realized it could crush Villanova in transition. Helped by regular long rebounds from Villanova’s 21 missed threes, the Huskies scored 18 fast-break points.

Again, Newton said that was just the scouting report.

“They’re one of the slowest teams in college basketball, so we know they can’t get back in transition,” he said. “So that’s what we tried to focus on, pushing in transition and scoring on them early.”

Villanova’s own attention to the scouting report seemed solid. It held UConn to 31 first-half points, a solid effort against the third-ranked offense, according to KenPom. The Huskies finished on a garbage-time 11-0 run, both hunting a 10th assist for Newton and because Villanova kept fouling, even with the game decided. The Wildcats got open shots, too. But only one team was able to make shots against good defense — the No. 1 team in the country.

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UConn coach Dan Hurley said postgame that Villanova is a tournament team. Coaches regularly praise their opponents, especially after beating them handily, but the detail made Hurley sound genuine.

“I don’t know what these bracketologists and all these different entities [are thinking],” Hurley said before listing Villanova’s wins over North Carolina and Texas Tech at the Battle 4 Atlantis, and at Creighton. “That’s a team that’s not only a tournament team, but it’s got the capability of winning, winning a game, winning multiple games.”

Hurley, however, said Villanova has to “win enough to get there.” Villanova doesn’t talk about its tournament resumé or bubble status, but opponents know the scenarios.

The Wildcats (15-12) are in an enviable situation. While some bubble teams need results elsewhere to get in, Villanova finishes with three Quadrant 1 games: at Providence, at Seton Hall, at home against No. 15 Creighton. If Villanova beats Georgetown on Tuesday — a game it cannot afford to lose — and goes 2-1 in those three games, it should be in.

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There’s reason for optimism: The Wildcats hammered Seton Hall and Providence at home, and they’ve already shown they can beat the Bluejays. However, KenPom favors Villanova’s opponents slightly in each of the three.

Villanova’s outlook is simple: a good two weeks and it goes to the NCAA Tournament. A bad two weeks and it ends up in the NIT for the second consecutive year. Losing at UConn didn’t change that.