March Madness: Five things to watch during Villanova-Michigan

SAN ANTONIO — Five things to watch during Thursday’s NCAA Sweet 16 matchup between Villanova and Michigan:

Don’t you always start with guard matchups? This one offers veterans vs. veterans, but maybe speed (Michigan) vs. strength (Villanova). ... The guards who have shut down Villanova’s guards the best this season are the taller ones. That’s not Michigan. The guards who have tested Villanova guards defensively? Quick guards. That’s Michigan.

Beyond the three-point line, there’s a legit advantage, which is why Villanova is favored. The Wildcats shoot the three better (36.2% to 33.9%) and defend it better (30.6% to 32.5%). Villanova also turns the ball over less, so a normal day, this is a clear advantage for Villanova.

Fun fact: (No, not the fact that Phil Martelli will be there.) Villanova tried to get all sorts of guards before offering Collin Gillespie a scholarship. You know that. Lonnie Walker went to Miami. Quade Green went to Kentucky. … Eli Brooks went to Michigan. Both these squads are led by savvy fifth-year guards from Pennsylvania. Brooks had 23 points against Tennessee.

Asked if Villanova reminds him of any Big Ten teams, Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson said, “Maybe like a more disciplined Iowa team, I say, that in terms of, like Iowa, they’re really free flowing and they have a couple sets, but it’s mostly just a lot of them making up their own sets and really free flowing. Villanova is really disciplined. They’ve run their sets. Coach [Jay] Wright has them really trained to do the Villanova system.”

Dickinson practically said, “Hey, they play Villanova basketball.” Then again, he had been recruited by Villanova, too. These two programs, the 2018 NCAA finalists, are often diving into similar recruiting pools.

The 7-footer (plus one) can be a game-changer. Michigan was supposed to be a top-10 team, sixth in the preseason AP poll, not a scraping-into-the-NCAA-barely-above-. 500 team. Against Tennessee in the second round, Michigan was that elite team, starting with Dickinson. Name a category. Scoring? Check, 27 points. Have to guard him outside? Check, made 3 of 5 three-pointers. The offense runs efficiently through him? Check, four assists. Throw in 11 rebounds.

Michigan doesn’t just come at teams with Dickinson. Moussa Diabate, a 6-11 freshman, has to be accounted for. Michigan has the bigger frontcourt. The Wolverines have used zone effectively at times because they understand the big men aren’t at their best chasing smaller players around the perimeter. Villanova forces such mismatches if you stay man-to-man. Watch that chess match, and also if Michigan defenders can handle the craftiness of Jermaine Samuels around the hoop.

Villanova is the top free-throw shooting team in the nation. If the three-pointers go down, it just becomes hard to make up the differential even getting a whole lot of two-pointers. Villanova gets 38.6% of its points from beyond the arc, while Michigan gets just 25.7%. Will that percentage hold for Villanova? An Elite Eight appearance rides on the answer.

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