Can Villanova still make the NCAA Tournament? We asked bracket expert Joe Lunardi.

Joe Lunardi knew the call was coming. And he knew the topic: Where is Villanova right now as it relates to the 2023 men’s NCAA Tournament?

So Lunardi, the local (and national) bracketologist, prepared an extra credit assignment.

Lunardi’s normal seed listings on his ESPN brackets during the college basketball season go to 76 teams. The 68 teams in the tournament, plus eight on the outside. For today’s subject, Lunardi had to add some extra lines … a few of them.

As of Thursday morning, Villanova (8-7, 2-2 Big East) was seed No. 95.

Forget NCAA Tournament, that’s NIT bubblish.

It’s possible — and right now it’s likely — that the Wildcats will become the 29th team since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985 to miss the tournament entirely after making the Final Four in the previous season. A 2-5 nonconference start will do that.

» READ MORE: ‘A personal decision’: Still no timeline for Justin Moore’s potential return for Villanova

But the Wildcats, who got star freshman Cam Whitmore back after those first seven games, are 6-2 in their last eight. And while a tournament run might seem unlikely, it’s far from impossible.

Lunardi’s projections don’t run that far down the road, and don’t ballpark final percentages, but he was willing to put a number on Villanova’s chances: “If I were setting odds at Parx Casino on Villanova being in the tournament, I think they still have about a 30 to 35% chance.

“That is a live dog.”

What needs to happen for at-large consideration? A lot, but not too much.

Of course, none of these words mean anything if Villanova runs the table in the Big East Tournament in early March and gets in via the league’s automatic bid. But let’s live in realities and probabilities, the World of Lunardi, if you will.

Close losses to UConn and Marquette in the first four games of conference play didn’t hurt too much, but beating St. John’s and Georgetown didn’t help much either.

A final Big East record of 13-7 or 14-6 would make it almost impossible for Villanova to be left out of the tournament, but if we’re playing this out like a student applying to college, those finishes seem like reaches. The safety numbers are 12-8 or 11-9.

Eleven or 12 conference wins would likely put Villanova squarely on the bubble, but it would also depend on the mechanics of those wins. There’s only one more Georgetown game on the schedule, two DePauls, and two Butlers (the Bulldogs will be no pushover at Hinkle Fieldhouse).

» READ MORE: Caleb Daniels scores 20 as Villanova uses a big second half to beat Georgetown

There’s almost no way to get to 11 or 12 wins without putting some decent wins on Villanova’s resumé. And let’s be clear: the Wildcats need some. They enter Saturday’s home game vs. No. 18 Xavier with zero Quad 1 wins. They are 0-4 vs. the better teams in the country. It’s a big reason Villanova’s NET ranking (the RPI replacement that holds a lot of tournament weight) was 87 Friday morning.

Villanova was No. 54 in the KenPom metrics Friday. Recently, that hasn’t been good enough to get an automatic bid.

Lunardi had Villanova as a buy-low candidate after the 2-5 start, but things have changed a little.

“There sure do seem to be more challengers to the throne in the Big East than we may have thought,” he said.

“To finish in the top half of the Big East is going to be a heavy lift, and that’s where they have to get to feel comfortably in the conversation.”

KenPom projections have Villanova finishing 16-15 and 10-10 in the conference.

“They’re better than that,” Lunardi said.

When asked if Xavier is a must-win, Lunardi said, “No, no, no, no.” It’s too early for that, especially with the schedule beyond the Xavier game. Villanova, for instance, still plays Xavier a second time, Providence (twice), Creighton (twice), Marquette on the road, and a home season finale against UConn.

The Wildcats have winnable road games next week at DePaul and Butler followed by games against Georgetown (home) and St. John’s at Madison Square Garden. A 4-1 stretch, no matter how you slice it, has Villanova at 6-3 in conference. Of course, it would look better if that 4-1 came with a Xavier win attached to it.

“If we wake up and they win the four after Xavier, they’re going to be pushing the bubble,” Lunardi said. “Road wins change things the fastest. [But] if you want to go 4-1 and lose to one of the other four and beat Xavier … now we’re talking.”

There’s been the minus-Whitmore version of Villanova and the plus-Whitmore version. But there’s another potential factor, too: Justin Moore.

Moore, who had Achilles surgery in March, has returned to practice as a full participant, though his timeline to return to game action is unclear. Getting him back would be a big deal, obviously.

How much will those things matter come Selection Sunday?

“I have found in more recent years that player absences get talked about a ton and don’t seem to matter as much as we think,” Lunardi said.

Replacing Jay Wright was never going to be easy for new Villanova coach Kyle Neptune.

“Coming into the year it was pretty clear to me in this season and beyond that they only had one way to go,” Lunardi said.

Hint: He meant down.

“That’s not a knock on the transition or Kyle or the administration,” Lunardi said. “They checked every box and did every correct thing. I deal in the world of probability. The 10-year run they just had was one of the most extraordinary things I’ve documented in all my years of doing this. Like it or not, they’re still a non-football school in a pool of sharks.

“You have the modern John Wooden. What are the chances that happens twice in a row?”

Let’s call it a long shot. And not a live one.

What’s left is a different sort of reality, Lunardi said.

“Villanova might have to get used to being a Sweet 16 program instead of a Final Four program. And 350 other schools would kill for that.”

Depending on how the next two months go, there might be 351.