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Betting on the NFL draft’s top picks was as difficult as expected

Most of last summer's favorites weren't even drafted. Sportsbooks only want to break even on the draft, one 'book director said.

Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd lifts NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being chosen by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 27th pick.
Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd lifts NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being chosen by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 27th pick.Read moreJae C. Hong / AP
    by Ed Barkowitz, For The Inquirer
    Published 

The first three players to be favored by PointsBet to go No. 1 in this year’s NFL Draft are a clear indicator of how difficult it is to handicap this thing.

Back on July 28, they opened with Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler at +200. Made sense at the time. Rattler was coming off a season where he threw 28 touchdown passes, including three in a thorough win over Florida in the Cotton Bowl. But by midseason, Rattler was benched. He subsequently transferred to South Carolina.

North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell (+250) also was regarded highly enough to be the No. 1 pick. He was coming off a 30-TD season, and had 38 the year before. But then sharper heads prevailed, a Tar Heels quarterback was not going to go No. 1 overall, and he was replaced as the favorite. Howell wasn’t even drafted in Thursday’s first round.

» READ MORE: Why would the Titans part with an elite receiver?

Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux was the consensus favorite for most of last college football season, but his stock slipped. In December, Michigan won the first Big Ten championship game on the shoulders of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who became the favorite.

Over the winter, Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu spent time as the top choice until Travon Walker became the favorite four days before actually being selected No. 1 on Thursday night.

In terms of handle at PointsBet, Walker had 37.5%, Neal had 24.5%, Ekwonu was at 18.4% and Hutchinson was at 13.1%. In other words, 62.5% of the money laid on the No. 1 pick was lost.

At WynnBet, Walker saw 22.9% of the money, which means 77.1% lost.

» READ MORE: Jordan Davis: ‘Stars aligned’ for him to get drafted by the Eagles

But that’s just on the top pick. Most bookies will tell you they are vulnerable in a lot of the other props. As Tom Gable, director of the sportsbook at Atlantic City’s Borgata put it on Friday morning, “[We] walked away with a small win on the draft, which is really nice. The goal is to just break even every year.”

Positional over/unders report card

Looking at how DraftKings various over/unders for the first round fared:

  1. Offensive players: 16.5 (Number taken: 16)

  2. Defensive players: 15.5 (16)

  3. Quarterbacks: 2.5 (1)

  4. Running backs: 0.5 (0)

  5. Wide receivers: 6.5 (6)

  6. Tight ends: 0.5 (0)

  7. Offensive linemen: 7.5 (9)

  8. Defensive linemen: N/A (7)

  9. Linebackers: N/A (2)

  10. Cornerbacks: 4.5 (4)

  11. Safeties: 1.5 (3)

» READ MORE: Eagles steal the show on draft night

This & That

  1. FanDuel opened their offensive rookie of the year market Thursday night with Steelers QB Kenny Pickett favored at +550. He was followed by Malik Willis (+600), who wasn’t even selected in the first round.

  1. Willis was picked to be the first quarterback taken on 54% of the bets made at WynnBet. He closed at +600 for that failed prop. Pickett was 32% of the tickets at a tidy +140.

  2. Caesars paid out a $2,000 ticket when Walker was 15-1 to go first overall.

  3. DraftKings’ over/under on where Willis would be taken was 10.5 with -150 to the over, +120 to under. Turns out that was a gift from the ‘book.

  4. FanDuel took a $30,700 play on Thibodeaux to go No. 2 overall at a little over 2-1 odds. He went fifth.

  5. A baseball note. Clayton Kershaw, who has 23 strikeouts, zero walks and won all three of his starts, will face the Detroit Tigers on Saturday for the first time in 11 years. The Dodgers entered Friday on a 7-1 streak of their games finishing under.

Triple Crown alert

Next Saturday is the Kentucky Derby. The draw is Monday at 2 o’clock. Epicenter (6-1), White Aberrio (7-1) Mo Donegal (8-1), Taiba (7-1) and Zandon (7-1) were atop the oddsboard at Twinspires.com as of Friday.

Sixers vs. Heat

The Westgate in Vegas was out with Miami (-160) favored over the Sixers (+140) for their second-round series shortly after the Sixers disposed of Toronto. DraftKings, as of Friday morning, was dealing a 30-cent line (grrrrrr) with Miami -165, Philadelphia +135.

BetMGM had the Sixers at +3.5 for Monday’s Game 1. Their series odds:

  1. End in 4 games: +650

  2. End in 5 games: +310

  3. End in 6 games: +200

  4. End in 7 games: +160

Exact result:

  1. Sixers in 4: +1500

  2. Sixers in 5: +1100

  3. Sixers in 6: +400

  4. Sixers in 7: +600

  5. Heat in 4: +1100

  6. Heat in 5: +475

  7. Heat in 6: +550

  8. Heat in 7: +300

And finally

Aaron Rodgers was not upset that the Packers decided against getting a wide receiver in the first round and instead used their two picks on defensive players.

Rodgers was on the Pat McAfee Show and said he was in touch Packers’ brass during draft night and knew the club liked Georgia linebacker Quay Walker and Georgia defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. So Green Bay’s odd streak of not drafting a wide receiver in the first round since 2002 (Javon Walker) continued.

But it’s that kind of inside information that Rodgers had which makes some states, such as Pennsylvania, decide against offering action on the NFL Draft. Can’t say I blame them, either.