What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 18 vs. the Commanders

Another week, another ugly win for the Eagles.

Thanks to Vic Fangio’s defense, the Eagles outlasted Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, 13-12, on Sunday. While the Eagles offense posted just 17 yards on 17 plays in the second half, their defense made just enough stops to seal the victory.

Despite all of the ugliness that has characterized the Eagles’ season, particularly for the offense, the NFC’s No. 2 seed is still in play. The Eagles are familiar with that path, having begun last season’s playoffs as the No. 2 seed on their quest to the Super Bowl.

» READ MORE: Eagles favored over Commanders in Week 18; Super Bowl odds take a dip despite win

The Chicago Bears are the only team in their way. An Eagles win at home over the 4-12 Washington Commanders in the regular-season finale on Sunday and a Bears loss to the Detroit Lions in Chicago would make Philadelphia the No. 2 seed. That improved seeding would lock in a wild-card matchup against the reeling, Micah Parsons-less Green Bay Packers.

Here’s what we know (and what we don’t) about the Eagles heading into Week 18:

Hamlet didn’t know what he was talking about. The real question, at least to Nick Sirianni this week, is: to rest or not to rest the Eagles’ starters?

Sirianni will be tasked with deciding whether the starters should play against the Commanders on Sunday in an effort to improve their chances at the No. 2 seed. There are risks and rewards associated with either decision.

If all of the starters play, the Eagles likely have their best chance at a win vs. lowly Washington. But Sirianni has been burned by playing his starters in the season finale. In the last regular-season game of the 2023 season against the New York Giants, A.J. Brown injured his knee, which sidelined him for the wild-card loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following week.

Jalen Hurts also hurt a finger on his throwing hand against the Giants, although he ended up playing against Tampa Bay.

» READ MORE: Even Skip Bayless thinks Eagles are headed back to Super Bowl after ‘impressive’ win. Here’s what they’re saying.

Technically, the starters had something to play for in Week 18. The Eagles could have had a shot at the No. 1 seed with a win, but they were also at the mercy of the Dallas Cowboys, who were playing simultaneously against the Commanders. Dallas ultimately won and clinched the division.

Could Sirianni take the same approach with his starters this time around? The Eagles likely have a better shot at beating the Commanders with Hurts, Brown, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert than they do with Tanner McKee, Will Shipley, Jahan Dotson, Darius Cooper, and Grant Calcaterra.

But would they still have a decent shot with the backups? It’s possible. After all, the Commanders were down numerous key players in their Christmas Day loss to the Cowboys last week, including quarterback Marcus Mariota (the de facto starter with Jayden Daniels shut down) and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Center Tyler Biadasz left the game with knee and ankle injuries.

Perhaps there is a middle ground in which some of the Eagles starters play and others sit. Sirianni offered a window into his thinking Sunday night after the starters beat the Bills when he discussed the importance of coming out of the game healthy.

“I thought it was really important that we played in this particular game,” Sirianni said. “Fortunately, we got through this, I think. I haven’t talked to the doctors yet, but fortunately we got through this. … I know there will be some bumps and bruises, but we’ve got through what we needed to get through and you feel really good."

Seventeen games and 17 “what we know” exercises later, we still don’t know if this style of victory from the Eagles — a dominant defensive performance and just enough firepower on offense — will be sustainable in the playoffs.

It might seem unlikely any other year. As noted ahead of the Week 12 loss to the Cowboys, only one Super Bowl champion offense in the last seven seasons registered a negative expected points added (EPA) per play during the regular season — the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (-.04). EPA measures how much one play improves or hurts a team’s chances of scoring.

The Eagles are sitting at an EPA of -.02 this season (tied for 11th in the NFL) after their third-worst showing of the year against the Bills (-.21).

But is there enough parity in the NFL this season that the Eagles could still win this way in the postseason?

» READ MORE: Eagles’ inexplicable second half offense nearly soils defensive gem vs. Josh Allen and the Bills

Maybe. Every team in the league has its flaws, as evidenced by the fluctuation of the NFC playoff seeding over the last couple of weeks. The Eagles’ path to a repeat is made easier by the Kansas City Chiefs no longer being the perennial powerhouses they once were, too.

The Eagles’ Super Bowl-winning offense was also flawed, but not this flawed, especially in the running game. Even if the 2025 Eagles can win this way, Sirianni made it clear that it’s not the way he necessarily wants to win. The Eagles beat the Bills, but Sirianni emphasized that he wasn’t satisfied with the offensive showing and pushed back on the notion that he was playing not to lose in the second half.

“We weren’t in a mode of saying, ‘Hey, [a] 13-0 [lead] is enough,’” Sirianni said after the game. “Not against this quarterback. Not against this offense. So I don’t think our mindset was ever that.”

It’s a miracle that Braden Mann’s leg is still attached to his body at this point in the season. When you punt for the New York Jets for three years, though, you’re probably used to a hefty workload.

Mann, the Eagles’ 28-year-old punter, is tied for third in the league with 69 punts. He’s been an unsung hero when the offense sputters. Mann is one of just six punters averaging more than 50 yards per punt (he ranks fifth in the league at 50.4).

The Eagles will need every edge they can get heading into the playoffs, including continued contributions from Mann. He’s hitting his stride heading into the postseason. Even in the wet conditions, Mann had one of his best showings of the year against the Bills.

» READ MORE: Eagles just might muddle their way to another Super Bowl, thanks to Jalen Carter and the NFL’s best defense

He averaged 55.4 yards per punt on Sunday (388 yards on seven punts), his third-best rate of the year. Mann had a pair of punts for over 60 yards (65 and 62) and he pinned the Bills inside their own 20 twice (the 17-yard line and the 10). Even while their special-teams unit attempted to block his punts, Mann didn’t flinch.

“They were coming after us to try and block a lot of them and our interior did a really good job,” Mann said after the game. “So I’m always super comfortable in there, which is not something that needs to be overlooked. And then I trust the gunners on the outside. They do such a good job on our coverage team. So I can just punt freely, and I think that helps.”

The Commanders are full steam ahead on the Hot Mess Express, but they have one emerging offensive weapon not named Terry McLaurin who could provide a challenge to the Eagles defense.

Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt, the 24-year-old rookie running back, is coming off his second career 100-yard rushing performance against the Cowboys. Granted, the majority of that total came on a 72-yard house call that helped the Commanders chip away at Dallas’ 14-point lead at the time.

Still, he had 11 carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns on Thursday, an uptick in volume over his eight carries for 25 yards and a score two weeks ago against the Eagles. Croskey-Merritt earned more touches in the absence of Chris Rodriguez, who was inactive with an illness.

» READ MORE: How the Eagles’ ‘sturdy’ defense weathered the storm in Buffalo to squeak by the Bills

The Commanders have nothing to lose, so perhaps they will look to get their rookie more involved in the season finale.

The Eagles defense will be up for any kind of challenge on the ground. Even in the absence of Nakobe Dean, the Eagles limited Bills running James Cook, the league’s leader in rushing yards, to just 74 yards on 20 carries (3.7 yards per carry, his fourth-lowest clip of the season).