Eagles-Bucs film preview: Todd Bowles will blitz Jalen Hurts heavily, Bucky Irving’s versatility, and more

Last season, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Eagles met, it was the Birds who were banged up, missing DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Lane Johnson. This time around, both teams will be without key players.

Tampa Bay is missing Mike Evans and several starting offensive linemen to injury. The Eagles sent edge rusher Nolan Smith and cornerback Jakorian Bennett to injured reserve, and Johnson and Adoree’ Jackson’s statuses for Sunday are unclear.

One thing is certain: Bucs coach Todd Bowles will blitz Jalen Hurts, and history has shown that. According to Next Gen Stats, Bowles blitzed Hurts on more than 40% of his drop backs in four of their five meetings. Hurts was pressured at a 39% clip in the four games the Eagles lost.

In addition to preparing for Tampa Bay’s blitzes, here are some other film takeaways as the Eagles prepare to face the Buccaneers again:

Bowles’ defense is blitzing at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL at 35% of the snaps, according to Next Gen Stats, and those extra rushers come from all over. The Buccaneers will bring safeties Antoine Winfield and Tykee Smith from slot alignments or on the outside of tackles, but they have also brought nickel cornerback Jacob Parrish. According to Next Gen Stats, Tampa Bay has brought their defensive backs on 27 blitzes, ranking third in the NFL, and those blitzes have led to a league-high 12 pressures and three sacks.

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The blitzes will sometimes be disguised pre-snap, with six or seven players aligned at the line of scrimmage. Linebackers Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis will drop back into zone coverage in these scenarios, forcing running backs to be out of position when Winfield, Smith, or Parrish comes flying into an open gap.

That means the answers for Hurts and the Eagles offense will have to come quickly. The Los Angeles Rams defense was effective with those blitzes because the Eagles often didn’t have the “hot” receiver available, meaning no one adjusted his route or looked back when pressure developed quickly.

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Jets quarterback Tyrod Taylor had the most consistent success stymying Tampa’s blitzes by finding quick outlets with slants or quick hitch routes, but he still took some shots from the extra pressure. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr., known for getting the ball out quickly, also helped mitigate the blitz’s effectiveness.

Tampa Bay’s defense plays coverages with one high safety about 51% of the Bucs’ defensive snaps, according to Fantasy Points Data, which especially leaves them vulnerable over the middle of the field when they blitz. The Falcons, Texans, and Jets have all found substantial gains with crossing routes against Tampa Bay’s pressure.

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With that in mind, Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo could scheme up crossing routes, specifically plays like mesh, where two inside receivers cross over on routes. With the Bucs’ struggles giving up yards after the catch, allowing 420 yards after receptions, third in the NFL according to Next Gen Stats, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith could be in for big days, so long as Tampa Bay’s blitzes are picked up.

Like the Rams defense presented last week with walked-up simulation pressures that eventually dropped out to take away short passes, the Bucs defense will present the same challenge, especially on third downs to muddy Hurts’ chances of identifying the coverage pre-snap.

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Hurts is getting the ball out much quicker against the blitz this season than at any point in his career. Next Gen Stats has charted Hurts at an average time to throw against blitzes at 2.58 seconds, and he has faced unblocked pressure (11.6% of his drop backs) at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Expect that to continue on Sunday.

Without Evans on Sunday, expect Tampa Bay to turn to running back Bucky Irving as a runner and receiver. Irving didn’t find much room to run against the Jets, finishing with just 66 yards on 25 carries, but he forced a career-high nine missed tackles and has a missed tackle rate of 30.4%, according to Next Gen Stats.

Though he is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, in large part due to the offensive line’s injuries, he’s been particularly effective on under-center runs. Tampa Bay’s offense has a positive expected points average (0.45), which measures points added per play, in 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) and utilizes the second tight end as a lead blocker on inside and outside zone runs with Baker Mayfield under center.

The Eagles struggled with outside zones runs against the Rams. And the Buccaneers, under new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, have a similar style of offensive runs as Mike McDaniel has in Miami. Irving is adept at finding cutback lanes should the Eagles’ front seven over-pursue the front side of those zone runs.

Mayfield has faced pressure on 45 drop backs, tied for the seventh-highest in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. To combat the losses of right tackle Luke Goedeke and right guard Cody Mauch, the Bucs have utilized Irving in the passing game, especially on screens.

He’s elusive to tackle in the open field, and he’s tied for the most receptions (14) on the team, alongside Evans and rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka. Irving is an extension of the running game and the Bucs will test Eagles linebackers Jihaad Campbell and Zack Baun in coverage.

Despite being pressured so frequently, Mayfield has been sacked only six times, and his sack avoidance is remarkable considering his prowess as a passer. Like the Eagles had to do against Patrick Mahomes in Week 2, the pass rushers and potential blitzers will need to keep gap integrity to prevent Mayfield from escaping. Mayfield has picked up eight first downs via scramble, nearly halfway to his mark all of last season (21), according to Next Gen Stats.

There is one weakness the Eagles can exploit on the Bucs defense, and it includes Saquon Barkley. But not necessarily running between the tackles.

The Bucs defense is tough to run on because of the frequency at which they use four- and five-man fronts to stop the run, along with having defensive tackle Vita Vea, who stuffs running lanes. The Bucs have loaded the box on a league-high 60.8% of snaps, according to Next Gen Stats.

But a big weakness is defending running backs out of the backfield. The Texans and Falcons popped big receptions. According to Next Gen Stats, Dennis, the Bucs linebacker, has allowed 14.1 yards per target in coverage of defenders with at least 15 snaps. So if there’s an opportunity to get Barkley going, it could be in the passing game.

Egbuka comes into focus with Evans out. He leads Tampa Bay’s receivers with three receiving touchdowns, and is aligned as an outside receiver nearly 60% of the time (104 snaps) and in the slot about 40% of the time (70), according to Pro Football Focus.

The Bucs get him the ball in a number of ways: screens, quick game routes, and downfield shots. According to Next Gen Stats, he is tied for the most touchdowns aligned as an outside receiver, where he’s caught 10 of 14 targets for 154 yards. After following around Davante Adams last week, Eagles defensive back Quinyon Mitchell may do the same Sunday.

With the heat likely playing a factor, watch if either team plays up-tempo, no-huddle for a series. In all of their three games, the Bucs have utilized no-huddle to keep defenses in base coverages, giving them an advantage, especially against the Jets. Back-to-back tempo plays in the second quarter helped Tampa Bay score its first touchdown.

Likewise, the Eagles went to no-huddle in the second half of their comeback win over the Rams. With a defense that likes to blitz, it may be conducive for the Eagles to keep Tampa Bay off balance.