Eagles crystal ball: Big season for DeVonta Smith, big surprise at RB, big questions for DBs

Three bold predictions as the Eagles get ready for their third day of training camp. . .

The real question isn’t whether D’Andre Swift or Rashaad Penny will have a bigger role in the offense. It’s why either one should have a bigger role than Gainwell. That probably sounds extreme if you look at Gainwelll’s overall numbers from his first two seasons in the league: 68 carries for 291 yards as a rookie in 2021, 53 carries for 240 yards last season. But let’s remind ourselves of what Gainwell did last postseason: 33 carries for 181 yards and a touchdown in three games.

That’s an average of 60.3 yards per game, higher than the career per-game averages of both Penny and Swift (42.0). In fact, Swift has rushed for 60-plus yards in a game just nine times in his 40-game career. Penny has done it 12 times in 42 games (postseason included).

If those game totals sound low, well, they are. Swift has been in the league for three years, Penny for five. Gainwell has been with the Eagles for two years and has played in 33 regular-season games, plus four postseason games.

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Swift and Penny have bigger names, bigger fantasy-football profiles, bigger draft pedigree. But Gainwell might actually be the better running back. He’s more durable than either one. He’s lower to the ground. He hits the hole harder. Swift is (allegedly) a better receiver. Penny is more explosive. But it will be interesting to see what the three of them look like when they are all playing on the same field behind the same offensive line against the same opponent. It shouldn’t surprise anybody at all if the eye test favors Gainwell.

Remember, the Eagles invested a total of two third-day draft picks and roughly $3 million in Penny and Swift. Penny signed for just one year and $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed. Forget about the names. Ask yourself this: What does it say about the Eagles’ opinion of Gainwell that they let Miles Sanders walk and invested so little in replacing him?

There’s really nothing bold on this one. A.J. Brown is a stone-cold stud. One of an incredibly small handful of players at his position who is impossible to stop one-on-one. Maybe one of the top five athletes at his position in the last decade. He’s the No. 1.

He’s also the guy that draws the double-teams, the brackets, the safety shades. The brilliance of the Eagles offense last season was its ability to exploit the path of least resistance via Smith’s impeccable route running, body control and hands.

Look at last postseason:

Brown: 13 catches, 146 yards, 1 touchdown.

Smith: 15 catches, 197 yards, 1 touchdown.

Actually, pull the lens out a little further. Look at their numbers over their last 11 games, playoffs included.

Brown: 104 targets, 62 catches, 983 yards, 7 touchdowns.

Smith: 97 targets, 64 catches, 912 yards, 5 touchdowns.

Again, to be clear, this is more of a pro-Smith argument than it is anti-Brown. In his first two seasons in the league, we’ve seen Smith go from 64 catches, 916 yards and five touchdowns, to 95 catches, 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns. Year 3 is often a breakout year for receivers. Brown took his biggest step last year in Year 4, going from a career average of 69.7 yards per game to 88.0 yards per game. The connection between Hurts and Smith is undeniable. There’s plenty more room to grow.

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I’m not really sure about the logic that says the Eagles will take a big step forward on the defensive side of the ball. That’s mostly because of the secondary, which left its fingerprints all over the loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. It’s hard to argue that the talent is better. Sydney Brown and Kelee Ringo may turn out to be good players, but history says that you probably shouldn’t be counting on immediate production from defensive backs drafted in the third and fourth rounds. Beyond that, the Eagles have only seen their talent thin. C.J. Gardner-Johnson may have been a character, but his versatility was a huge asset last season. Marcus Epps signed for more elsewhere.

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Those are sustainable losses as long as the corners are as solid as they were last season. But Darius Slay is 32, an age where things can go downhill fast. Let’s not forget that the Eagles were set to release him this offseason. That was more a salary-cap necessity than anything. But it’s worth noting.

I’m not saying that anybody should be worrying that a leaky secondary will derail a 12-5 season. People are just underselling the uncertainty.