Two (deep and arguably arcane) underrated numbers that matter for the Eagles in 2026
Jalen Carter's run defense activity and DeVonta Smith's reliability third downs give a glimpse of two key areas for the Eagles this season.
A couple of numbers that have jumped out at me during the number-crunching portion of my annual Eagles/NFL cram sessions …
When Jalen Carter was on the field, the Eagles were a top-five run defense. When he was off the field, they were a bottom-five run defense.
What makes a defensive tackle worth $40 million per year? Well, have a look at the Eagles first-and-10 rushing splits with and without Carter.
In 107 snaps without him, opponents averaged 5.1 rushing yards per attempt. Only the Dolphins and Bengals allowed a higher yards per carry on first-and-10 plays.
» READ MORE: How a friendly offseason wager with Vic Fangio transformed Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter
On 130 snaps with Carter on the field, opponents averaged just 4.08 yards per carry. Only six teams in the NFL allowed a lower average on first-and-10 plays.
Carter’s impact goes deeper than the yards an offense fails to gain. There are also the yards an offense doesn’t even try to gain. Last season, opponents ran the ball on nearly 60% of the snaps that Carter was on the sideline. When he was on the field, they ran the ball on 52% of their snaps (on first-and-10).
Keep in mind, 2025 was a season when Carter was less than 100% for a stretch.
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One of the underrated storylines of last season was the overall struggles of the Eagles’ run defense. I use that term relatively. In 2024, Fangio’s unit was Top 10 in both total yards and yards per carry. In 2025, they ranked 22nd and 20th, respectively.
Quantifying run defense is an imperfect science, of course. Both total yardage and yards per carry are heavily influenced by game situation. Which is why I chose first-and-10 as a sample rather than overall numbers for the Carter on/off splits. That being said, there was nothing situational about the Bears’ 281 rushing yards on Black Friday, after which Carter decided to undergo surgical treatment on his shoulders. The Chargers ran for 169 yards the following week.
Carter aside, the Eagles clearly suffered from the loss of Milton Williams last season. Their on-off splits with and without Carter were far less drastic the two seasons prior. There are two big reasons to hope that the Eagles have a better run D this season. One, Carter will be healthier and more available. Two, Jonathan Greenard will be here for the whole season. Jaelan Phillips was excellent against the run, but he was only here post-trade deadline. The flip side is this: The Eagles were at their best with Phillips, and they will also be attempting to replace a starting safety in Reed Blankenship and a starting linebacker in Nakobe Dean. One way or another, it will be a big subplot to this season. Carter, as always, will play the biggest and most important role.
DeVonta Smith led the Eagles with 19 first-down catches on third down. He led the NFL in yards per catch on those conversions.
Here’s a list of the wide receivers who have finished a season averaging 20 yards per reception on at least 40 third-down targets over the last three seasons.
Nico Collins
Puka Nacua
Tyreek Hill
DeVonta Smith
» READ MORE: Eagles practice observations: Saquon Barkley ramps up, Elijah Moore scores and defense should play in Baltimore
Those first three players had stretches where they have been mentioned on the short list for best receivers in the game. Smith has a fine reputation. The NFL is well aware of how good he is. But you’ll rarely hear him mentioned among that small group of WR1s who create their own receptions and dictate opponents’ game plans.
The deeper you look under the hood, though, the more Smith’s numbers compare favorably to the best of the best.
Last year, he ranked 11th in the NFL in Tough Catch Percentage, a metric that I totally ham-and-egged using the nflfastr data package. It measures a receiver’s share of contested catches and receptions created (as determined by For the Numbers Fantasy) and catches in traffic (as determined by me, using YAC and tackling data, among other variables). Here are the other players who rank ahead and just behind Smith: Courtland Sutton, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, A.J. Brown, Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trey McBride, Collins, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Chris Olave, and Ja’Marr Chase. Whatever the metric signifies in abstract, those players are pretty good company to keep.
The presence of Brown on that list is significant, of course. Few players in the NFL have performed better in true 50-50 (or worse) situations than Brown has since joining the Eagles. Therein lies the real question about the Eagles’ receiving corps. It isn’t whether Smith can replace Brown as Jalen Hurts’ WR1. The question is whether the guys behind Smith can be anything close to the player he was as WR2. It’s not coincidence that the Eagles traded up for a receiver in Makai Lemon whose most impressive tape is his physicality and consistency in traffic. Hurts needs him on the field, sooner rather than later.
The Eagles are grinding their way through the second week of training camp. Some parts of the team have looked good, others remain very much a work in progress. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane and Jeff Neiburg assess quarterback Jalen Hurts’ play, how some of his targets are faring, and why, regardless of how the offense is coming together, the defense could be elite enough to help the Eagles contend for another title. Listen here.
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