Super Bowl-less in Seattle? Nick Sirianni says he won’t panic, but the Eagles need a win

Editor’s note: An original version of this article had the top seed playing the Lions in the second round instead of the Cowboys.

The great American novelist Elmore Leonard once said that a good writer should use no more than one or two exclamation points per 100,000 words of prose. That more or less sums up my thinking about the phrase “must-win.” No two words in the English language are misjoined and misapplied more often. Nick Sirianni said it best on Tuesday afternoon when he explained why he wouldn’t take over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Brian Johnson.

“We’re 10-3, we’re in control of our own destiny,” the Eagles coach said. “We’re going to keep rolling and finding answers with the people that we have.”

But, let’s be honest: They gotta win this one.

» READ MORE: Hayes: The Eagles should hire Frank Reich to save their season

Right?

Well, maybe.

The more you look at the Eagles’ situation and think about their prospective playoff scenarios, the harder it is to escape the magnitude of Monday’s matchup against the Seahawks.

Obviously, none of these are stone-cold facts. We’re talking probabilities here. Let’s take them in order.

Right now, here are the playoff standings and remaining games for each team:

The 49ers and Cowboys are the only true threats. Forget about the Lions. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since the Chiefs in Week 1. They allowed 37 points to the Seahawks, 38 to the Ravens and Chargers. They’ve allowed at least 26 in each of their last five games, including losses to the Packers and Bears. A week ago, I might have included Dallas with Detroit. The big difference between these two teams is the throws we saw Dak Prescott make on Sunday. He is a different player than the one the Eagles faced previously.

» READ MORE: Eagles stats: Dak Prescott flourishes vs. Birds defense struggling to get off the field on third down

Right now, the Eagles would be set for a second-round game on the road in San Francisco (counting on the Lions to beat the Vikings in the wild-card round), followed by a road game in Dallas, assuming the Cowboys win their first two games. Obviously, avoiding that scenario is paramount.

The more interesting situation arises if the Eagles overtake the Cowboys in the NFC East but finish second to the Niners in overall seeding. At that point, they would likely face a second-round matchup against the Lions, who would be the higher seed despite their lower (presumptive record). Meanwhile, the 49ers would draw the Cowboys as the lone remaining wild-card team.

It’s actually the most likely scenario.

Dallas has a brutal three-game stretch coming up with road games against the resurgent Bills and top-seed contender Miami. That’s followed by a home game against the Lions before the regular-season finale in Washington. Probability says two losses. After Seattle, the Eagles play the Giants, the Cardinals and the Giants.

However you look at it, the Eagles’ best chance at another Super Bowl is to supplant the Niners. They are already a game back with four to play, thanks to their head-to-head loss. San Francisco has a big game against the Ravens on Christmas night. It has dominated the Rams in recent years. The Cardinals and the Commanders are more focused on the draft. It’s eminently possible that San Francisco wins out. More likely, the Niners lose one of the four.

The Eagles? They should win out. The biggest question mark is Monday in Seattle. On paper, they should dominate. Drew Lock, Geno Smith, doesn’t matter. The long flight shouldn’t matter. The 12th Man shouldn’t matter. If the Eagles are who they think they are, if they are who they need to be, then they win this game going away.

They need to do it.

» READ MORE: Eagles are sizable road favorites against the Seahawks on Monday night

If they do it, then all of the angst disappears. They are 11-3 on the way to 14-3. If that doesn’t end up being good enough, then so be it. Chances are, it will be enough. And they’ll be Super Bowl favorites once again.

If they do it, then Sirianni can drive into work and smirk. His steadfastness will have been rewarded. A message will have been sent. Every team hits a rough patch. The Eagles? Theirs happened to come at a conspicuous time.

And what if they lose?

That’s where the crux of the argument lies: in the counterfactual. If they still come out flat, and fumbling, and surrendering the edge? If the offense still looks like your run-of-the-mill spread college scheme? No creativity? No complexity? No misdirection? If a loss to the Seahawks is what costs the Eagles the all-important one-seed? After three months where it was theirs and theirs alone?

A must-win? Perhaps not. But it’s close.