Tonight’s Ram-Seahawks game has huge playoff implications and could impact the Eagles

The Los Angeles Rams (11-3) take on the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) tonight in a game likely to have a huge impact on the NFC playoff race, but might not matter much to the Eagles (9-5).

The Rams enter the game as the NFC’s No. 1 seed and in first place in the NFC West because they defeated the Seahawks in Week 11. The San Francisco 49ers (10-4) are close behind both teams and still have a fair shot of winning the division.

The Eagles, who play the Washington Commanders (4-10) Saturday night, enter Week 16 as the No. 3 seed. A lot would have to happen for the Birds to either move up or down before the season ends. So tonight’s Rams-Seahawks game will have more impact on the team the Eagles could face in the first round of the playoffs than whether the Birds could sneak back into the No. 1 spot.

How unlikely are the Eagles’ chances of landing the top playoff seed? Less than 1%, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

Here are all the various playoff implications of tonight’s game, and how it could impact the Eagles:

If the Rams win tonight, they’ll have a 90% chance of clinching both the NFC West and the No. 1 seed, according to the New York Times.

A win means the Seahawks would need to completely overtake the Rams in the standings. That would require the Seahawks winning their final two games (against the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers) and the Rams losing their final two (against the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals).

The only other team with a realistic chance to overtake the Rams as the No. 1 seed would be the Chicago Bears (10-4). The Bears defeated the Rams back in September, so Chicago would come out on top if the two teams are tied when the season ends.

There’s also the 49ers, who face Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts Monday night. The 49ers split their two games against the Rams this season, but San Francisco would currently win a tiebreaker with a better divisional record.

The Seahawks will clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight and Seattle would immediately become the NFC’s top playoff seed, at least for now. The Rams would drop to the No. 5 seed.

Waiting in the wings are the 49ers, who defeated the Seahawks back in September and would be in position to steal the division and the No. 1 seed.

The Seahawks and 49ers are scheduled to face off in Week 18 at Levi’s Stadium, and a Seattle win tonight makes it more likely that game will end up deciding both the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.

If the Eagles do end up the NFC’s No. 3 seed, they’ll host the No. 6 seed at the Linc during the wild card round of the playoffs.

It’s looking likely the No. 6 seed will be the team that finishes third place in the NFC West, which is currently the 49ers. But the division is so tight, anything can happen over the next three games, so whichever team loses tonight increases their chances of facing the Birds on the road in a wild card game.

Of the three teams, the Eagles have only played the Rams, a game the Birds narrowly won on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in Week 3.

While it remains mathematically possible for the Eagles to still end the season as the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, the odds are not in the Birds’ favor.

But what about the No. 2 seed? That’s how the Eagles entered the playoffs last season, and their postseason run ended with a Super Bowl victory.

The current No. 2 seed is the Chicago Bears (10-4), who are essentially two games up on the Eagles because of the Birds’ loss to Chicago last month on Black Friday. So there are two main scenarios where the Eagles can overtake the Bears:

There are some less-likely scenarios where the Eagles could win a tiebreaker in the event of a three-way tie also involving the Rams or Seahawks, which Wharton professor Deniz Selman breaks down here:

If the Packers end up winning the NFC North, the Eagles would need to end the season a half-game up to secure the No. 2 seed, thanks to Green Bay’s tie against the Dallas Cowboys earlier this season (Unless the Eagles tie one of their final three games, but we won’t worry about that until it happens).

In the unlikely event the Lions overtake both and win the division (the New York Times gives them a 5% chance), the Eagles hold the tiebreaker thanks to their Week 11 win at the Linc.

The good news is the only way the Eagles would drop to the No. 4 seed is if they lost their final three games and either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) or the Carolina Panthers (7-7) won out, since they face each other twice in the final three weeks of the season.

The Eagles will officially clinch the NFC East and a playoff spot with a win Sunday or a Cowboys’ loss to the Los Angeles Chargers (10-4). But there’s still a long-shot chance Dallas could still overtake the Eagles in the division.

Even if the Cowboys manage to win their final three games — at home against the Chargers and on the road against the Commanders and New York Giants (2-12) — they would still need the Eagles to lose out to overtake the Birds in the standings.

Good luck.