NFL awards picks: Tom Brady’s MVP illogic, close Coach of the Year vote

I don’t vote on the Associated Press version of NFL postseason awards, which are the NFL’s official awards. That voting is done by an eclectic panel of 50 semi-rotating media members — and I use the term “media members” extremely loosely, partly because last year the panel included Fox analyst Tom Brady, who also is an NFL owner.

Maybe this year, too. Voters can out themselves, as Mike Florio at ProFootball Talk.com did to himself and his colleague Chris Simms, but we won’t know who all of this year’s voters are until the AP publishes the list during Super Bowl week.

While I’m not an AP voter, I have written a weekly NFL column for years, and I have covered the NFL extensively for 35 years. Therefore, it’s not entirely inappropriate to offer my insight, if only to inform the judgment of any actual voters, who have to vote by 3 p.m. Monday.

Read fast, Tom.

Brady said Sunday that his choice was Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford over Patriots QB Drake Maye. This, after Stafford rebounded from a three-interception game against the gritty Falcons with a four-touchdown home game against the pathetic Cardinals. Part of Brady’s rationale: Stafford, 37 and MVP-less, won’t have as many chances as Maye, who is 23 and in his second season.

This is the dumbest reason ever. Football is violent, tomorrow is promised to no one, and the only criteria should be the 2025 season. Unfortunately, I don’t think Brady will be the only voter who considers this year’s competition a lifetime achievement award.

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Maye secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC with the highest passer rating among regulars, at 113.5, and did so with a new coaching staff in just his second season. Still, Stafford led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns passes, and secured the No. 5 seed against the NFL’s toughest schedule.

I actually agree with TB12.

Stafford it is.

But not because he’s old.

This, by far, is the toughest call, because there are so many worthy Coach of the Year candidates, and some fresh faces.

Sean Payton and the Broncos have the No. 1 seed, but he’s done it for 24 years and he’s had three years to build in Denver, two of them with his current quarterback, Bo Nix. Should having experience and tenure count against him?

Mike Vrabel is in his seventh season but his first in New England, where the pressure as a Patriots legend was immense and where the Patriots were the last-place team in the AFC East. They won the division and got the No. 2 seed, but Vrabel inherited Maye, who already was a Pro Bowl quarterback. Should that count against him?

In his second season as a head coach, Mike Macdonald added Pro Bowl QB Sam Darnold to a solid, 10-win Seattle roster, won 14 games, and took the NFC West from the Rams and the 49ers. Irrelevant fact: He’s only ever really worked for Harbaughs — John with the Ravens and Jim at Michigan. Anyway, the Seahawks led the NFL in point differential, at plus-191, three touchdowns better than the No. 2 team.

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Liam Coen, the first of the rookies, was an NFL offensive coordinator for only two years — one of them a stormy season as OC with the Rams — before a bizarre courtship tore him away from being OC at Tampa Bay. He succeeded Doug Pederson in Jacksonville, won 13 games against some really good teams, and finished on an eight-game heater … but he inherited a franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence.

Ben Johnson, the second of the rookies, flipped the Bears from worst-to-first in the NFC North and refined second-year QB Caleb Williams. He was my slam-dunk pick two weeks ago, but the Bears have faded. Seventh seed Green Bay certainly isn’t scared to travel to the No. 2 seed now; the Bears lost to the Packers earlier this season and they needed overtime to beat them three weeks ago.

Who’s my choice now?

It’s Macdonald, but only by a meticulously groomed hair.

Player of the Year usually is the category reserved for the best running back or receiver, since only quarterbacks have been allowed to win MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

My favorite offensive player this year: Falcons back Bijan Robinson, who led the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 2,298, the best by 172 yards, on a team so bad it fired its head coach and GM on Sunday night.

Unlike Robinson, both Jaxon Smith-Njigba of Seattle and Puka Nacua of the Rams will be catching passes in the playoffs. But what Robinson did, and with such little support, reminds you of Christian McCaffrey with the 5-11 Panthers in 2019.

McCaffrey was second in yards from scrimmage this year.

Browns lineman Myles Garrett sacked Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow in the fourth quarter Sunday to break the sack record of 22½ shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.

However, Garrett’s 23rd sack came in the 17th of his 17 games. Watt played in just 15 of 17 games in 2021, which is remarkable. Strahan played in just 16 games of the 2001 season, which is all they played back then, but Packers quarterback Brett Favre essentially surrendered to the last “sack,” in the last game.

So what. They’re all great.

Garrett’s the DPOY.

Saints quarterback Tyler Shough had a worse passer-rating season than Jacoby Brissett.

Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan caught 70 passes for 1,014 yards, better than either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, and seven touchdowns. No contest.

Carson Schwesinger, the Browns’ tackling machine, is really the only choice this season. He’s a second-round pick who looks exactly like what you’d think a linebacker from UCLA would look like.

In his first season of his second return to New England, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels turned Maye into an MVP favorite in his second NFL season, running the top yardage and scoring offense in the AFC. McDaniels had as much to do with the Patriots’ turnaround as Vrabel.

McCaffrey missed most of 2024 with a knee injury and might win OPOY this year. Sorry, Dak.