NFL picks: Vegas Vic rolling with the Packers over the 49ers on Thursday Night Football

LAS VEGAS -- First up, and most important, is the COVID-19 update. San Francisco shut down its facility on Wednesday because Kendrick Bourne tested positive. Green Bay had a few positive tests as well, but the game is still a go. The Packers will be without RB AJ Dillon, while RB Jamaal Williams and LB Kamal Martin also have been ruled out after they were deemed “high-risk close contacts” of Dillon.

So, the Packers came up on the short end against the Vikings last week, 28-22. Aaron Rodgers was not up to his usual standards, completing 27-of-41 passes for 291 yards. Green Bay’s defense was shredded by Minny’s RB Dalvin Cook for 163 yards. The Pack will be without their three top running backs, which leaves the always dangerous Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams as options. With all that, you would think that we’re gonna leave our heart and a few of our dollars in San Francisco. ‘Au contraire mon frere,’ which means on the contrary my brother. After five years of French in junior high school and high school, this is the only phrase that I remember. With no real running game, a thin WR corps and a shaky defense, this is exactly the challenge that Rodgers loves!

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No Jimmy Garoppolo and no George Kittle, which is gonna put a kink in San Francisco’s offensive flow. Nick Mullins stepped in last week, and hit 18-of-25 passes for 238 yards, but, it’s still Nick Mullins.

Also have a huge revenge factor in play since the 49ers beat the Cheeseheads twice last year, 37-8 during the regular season, and then 37-20 in the NFC title tilt. However -- and it’s a big however -- Jimmy G was the guiding light in both of those games, and now he’s in a walking boot. Uh oh! It’s a big reason the line is going up. We got in at Packers -5.5. It’s over 7 in some places.

As long as it stays under 10, like my colleagues, I’m taking the Packers.