Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Broncos in Week 5: What you need to know and a prediction

The Eagles host the Denver Broncos in a Week 5 matchup at Lincoln Financial Field at 1 p.m. on Sunday. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

The Birds face another tough defense, but like any unit, the Broncos have weaknesses that can be exploited. Denver places high in most statistical categories and advanced analytics, but Vance Joseph’s defense hasn’t forced many turnovers. That may be where the Eagles offense is most sound. Jalen Hurts has yet to toss an interception and has fumbled only once for the team’s lone giveaway. If Hurts and Co. continue their inconsistent ways in terms of moving the ball, one thing they can’t be is sloppy with the football.

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Joseph’s defense has generated the highest pressure rate this season (48.1%), per NextGen Stats. He has two explosive edge rushers in Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper. Bonitto leads the NFL with 11 quarterback hits and has at least six pressures in all four games, per NGS. Cooper has the fastest average get-off (0.69 seconds) of anyone in the league — Bonitto is tied for second (. 72 seconds) — and has 10-plus pressures, per NGS.

It’ll be strength vs. strength, as Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said, with tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata matched up against the edge rushers. Vance likes to blitz despite the success of his four-man front — Denver is sixth in blitz rate — but Hurts has done well against extra rushers. He conquered the Bucs’ blitz in the first half of last week’s win.

Hurts’ problems arose when Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles switched it up and rushed only four — and occasionally just three with a spy — with simulated pressures. The Bucs dropped into zones and the Eagles had few answers. Joseph can certainly dial that scheme up, but his nature is to play aggressively and have his cornerbacks play man coverage.

Patrick Surtain is one of the stickiest corners in the NFL. He’ll likely follow receiver A.J. Brown. Surtain allowed zero catches to the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase in 10 matchups in man coverage last week, per NGS. Brown thrives against man, but expect Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo to utilize rub route concepts to free up his receivers.

The Broncos have a solid run defense and rank eighth in expected points added (EPA) per rush. Safety Talanoa Hufanga and former Eagles linebacker Alex Singleton are their top run tacklers. The Eagles have struggled to get Saquon Barkley going on the ground. He’s averaging a career-low 3.1 yards per carry. Barkley has missed some holes, but run defenses have been able to pin their ears back.

The offensive line just hasn’t played to its norm, especially in the middle. Left guard Landon Dickerson doesn’t look close to 100% after knee surgery, center Cam Jurgens may still not yet be fully recovered from back surgery, and right guard Tyler Steen now has a knee issue. And yet, Patullo keeps calling for runs in between guards despite averaging just 2 yards a rush up the middle.

Bo Nix hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts in his sophomore season, but he had a solid outing in 2-2 Denver’s last win over the Bengals. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio described Nix as maybe “Baker Mayfield’s younger brother,” referencing the last quarterback the Eagles faced.

Nix can scramble like Mayfield, and is actually a little more of a gunslinger. It can get him into trouble, like it did against Cincinnati when he threw an interception in the end zone. But he bounced back on the next series and fired a touchdown to receiver Courtland Sutton into a tight window. The windows should be small against an Eagles defense that has the second-lowest target separation (2.8 yards), behind only the Broncos (2.7).

Sutton could see a lot of cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who allowed just two receptions for 6 yards on six targets across 22 matchups with Bucs receiver Emeka Egbuka. Mitchell, at 6-foot, gives up 4 inches to Sutton.

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Broncos coach and offensive play caller Sean Payton likes to run the ball, as Fangio pointed out. He has a couple of good backs in J.K. Dobbins (5.7 yards per rush) and RJ Harvey (5.1). Dobbins is 12th in yards-after-contact average (3.65), while Harvey is second (4.44). The Eagles’ run defense was better against Tampa, but they still rank 20th in EPA per rush and have allowed 4.8 yards a rush.

Denver’s offensive line is one of the best in the league. All-Pro right guard Quinn Meinerz is a road grader. Left tackle Garett Bolles hasn’t allowed a sack this season. The Eagles’ pass rush has been solid, but hasn’t gotten to the quarterback much. The edge rusher group has just a half-sack. Jalyx Hunt faces another tough test in Bolles. Outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari could be active for the first time after Ogbo Okoronkwo’s season-ending triceps injury.

Sirianni has insisted that the Eagles haven’t tipped off defenses through formation and play-calling tendencies, but there has been evidence to suggest otherwise. For instance, when Hurts is under center, he’s dropped to throw only 15% of the time. Or when they’re in pistol, they’ve run the ball 84% of the time. The Eagles break it down into more finite categories, but I’m not sure most defenders have that kind of recall.

The Broncos have a downhill-playing defense. Patullo, Hurts, and the Eagles offense will likely need to take advantage of opportunities downfield to win this one. I have a feeling they’ll be able to unlock it because Brown and DeVonta Smith are too good to be denied for so long. And the same goes for Hurts, who throws one of the best deep balls in the game.

Do I think this also might not yet be the week? Certainly. An argument could be made that the Eagles could have lost each of the first four games if one play went differently. But they didn’t, and until they lose a game that Hurts has started and finished, I’m sticking with the Birds.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Broncos 23