NFL coach: Eagles’ revamped defense with Jonathan Gannon isn’t scaring anybody

I was making the rounds last week, connecting with NFL contacts before they went dark for the season, and I fell into a brief discussion with a former Eagles coach regarding the bookies’ expectations. Even after Howie Roseman’s Herculean overhaul, the Eagles’ over-under for wins in 2022 remains a modest 9½ games. The coach wasn’t surprised.

“Quarterbacks,” he said.

A team that won nine games in 2021 despite hiring a new, inexperienced staff and fielding a first-time starting quarterback? I figured 11 wins, easy. Not so fast.

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A team that received a complete face-lift on both sides of the ball; a team that shed past personnel mistakes; a team whose division, the NFC East, remains lousy; and a team whose coaching staff and quarterback are all a year more seasoned? The Birds will remain mediocre because of quarterback Jalen Hurts?

“No, not ‘quarterback.’ ‘Quarterbacks.’ It’s not just Jalen. The other quarterbacks. The ones they’re going to play,” he said. “Gannon hasn’t proved he can stop good quarterbacks.”

But what about all of the defensive upgrades?

“Yeah, a couple,” he replied. “But the DC is the same, and Fletcher’s back, Barnett’s back, Hargrave faded ...”

Point taken. Jonathan Gannon did not impress last season as a first-year coordinator. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and end Derek Barnett each were cast aside in the offseason but returned on team-friendly deals. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave went to his first Pro Bowl, but he had just 1½ sacks in his last 11 regular-season games.

The coach said he figured the bookies had the same questions as he and the coaches the Eagles will face have. And, frankly, most of the league’s offensive coaches aren’t panicking about the revamped defense in Philly.

His observations opened my eyes. Maybe this defense isn’t that good. Certainly, it was not only Hurts’ passing that kept the Eagles from winning 12 or 13 games last year, it was the other teams’ passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks connected on 80% of their passes five times in 2021; they connected on 73% of their attempts in seven regular-season games; and, after the Eagles managed a run of competence against a kennel of QB dogs in the second half of the season, Tom Brady torched them at 78% in their playoff loss at Tampa.

Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Brady, Derek Carr, and Justin Herbert gutted the Eagles defense last season. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t look too bad, either. This year’s list of opposing quarterbacks isn’t quite as formidable — there’s no Mahomes or Brady — but they’ll face enough good QBs to make 10 wins a challenge.

The first established quarterback will be Jared Goff in Detroit, whom they manhandled in Game 8 last season, but Goff was outstanding in his last five starts of 2021, with 11 touchdown passes, two interceptions, a 107.1 passer rating, and a 3-2 record. The Eagles continue with the Vikings and Kirk Cousins, who went to two of the last three Pro Bowls. They then face the Commanders and Carson Wentz in the first of two meetings; Wentz enjoyed a fine bounce-back season in 2021 until his COVID-19 idiocy sabotaged his future in Indianapolis.

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They travel to Arizona to play Kyler Murray, who made his second straight Pro Bowl last season. They then see Prescott in the first of two meetings, and Prescott led the Cowboys to the NFC East title last year. They then host Wentz, then visit Matt Ryan, who took over for Wentz in Indianapolis, then host weirdo Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, followed by Ryan Tannehill and the Titans. Then, on Christmas Eve, Dak at Dallas, before Jameis Winston visits with the Saints.

So, in all, 10 games against quarterbacks who fall somewhere between proficient and magnificent.

In other words, 10 games against quarterbacks who are objectively better than Hurts. They had nine such games in 2021, if you consider Goff and Ryan superior to Hurts. They went 2-7 in those games.

Maybe 9½ wins isn’t an underestimation, after all. Gannon struggled against good quarterbacks.

While there’s reason to hope that won’t be true in 2022, there is precious little proof.

Oddsmakers like proof.

New edge rusher Haason Reddick collected 23½ sacks over the last two seasons in Arizona and Carolina, which got him $45 million over the next three seasons, but those places weren’t Philadelphia. How will Gannon use Reddick? Jevon Kearse averaged 11½ sacks in his four full seasons before he landed in Philadelphia on a $65 million deal in 2004 (he played four games in 2002), but he averaged just six sacks in his three full seasons with the Eagles (he played two games in 2006).

» READ MORE: Haason Reddick is critical to the Eagles defense ... and Jonathan Gannon’s job

It wasn’t age with The Freak. Reddick turns 28 on Sept. 22. Kearse turned 28 on Sept. 3 of his first year with the team. Sometimes, players just don’t fit.

That shouldn’t be the case with 29-year-old James Bradberry, the cornerback the Giants cut as a salary-cap casualty. The Eagles gave him $10 million for the 2022 season. Cornerbacks are less the victim of scheme and philosophy than players who play closer to the ball or in the middle of the field, and Bradberry’s an excellent zone corner, which is Gannon’s preference. So, assuming Bradberry’s preseason groin injury does not hinder him hence, he should be able to replicate his 10-interception aggregate over the last three seasons.

The rest of the upgrades come with caveats.

The Eagles signed free agent Kyzir White to a one-year, $3 million contract. That’s not much money for a fifth-year veteran linebacker who led the Chargers with 144 tackles in 2021. The rest of the league clearly believes that White is no more than a low-impact, serviceable player.

The Birds drafted Jordan Davis in the first round. He’s a 6-foot-6, 340-pound ... what? Big guy? Run-stopper? Conditioning project?

The Birds traded for C.J. Gardner-Johnson and will start him at safety, but he has played mainly nickel corner in the NFL, and no matter how much of a playmaker CJGJ might be, Gannon so far has tended to protect his safeties.

The Birds drafted Nakobe Dean in the third round, and he’ll be a steal, but who knows how Gannon will use — or misuse — an undersized linebacker with Dean’s athleticism? The obvious answer is that Dean would blitz like crazy, but the Birds blitzed just 16.4% of the time, according to profootballreference.com, the second-lowest rate in the NFL, and that happened only after head coach Nick Sirianni took Gannon to the woodshed.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni scorches Jonathan Gannon and the Eagles defensive staff | Marcus Hayes

Gannon retreated into his shell as soon as he faced Dak and Brady again. The NFL’s coaches expect the same behavior this season.

So, 9½ it is.

Inquirer Eagles beat reporters EJ Smith and Josh Tolentino preview the team’s season opener against the Detroit Lions. Watch at Inquirer.com/EaglesGameday