Super Bowl LIV predictions by the Eagles’ beat writers

I think finally, the time is Andy’s.

The Chiefs stopped the Titans’ run game, and they can at least limit the 49ers’ ground attack. Jimmy Garoppolo is capable of having a Nick Foles moment, but Patrick Mahomes is a much better quarterback, week-in and week-out. The Chiefs’ propensity for digging holes to climb out of is concerning — this is not an opponent that lets you really do that. I’m thinking that with the extra time to prepare, Andy Reid won’t get caught flat-footed.

I respect the 49ers’ excellent defense, but Kansas City has so many weapons, I will have to see them all shut down to believe it. Mahomes is the best player on the field, and Andy — who will go into the Hall of Fame when his coaching career is over, regardless of what happens in SB LIV — has been waiting too long for this moment to come around again to not have his team primed and ready, not have every possible angle covered. (Let’s just hope the game doesn’t come down to the two-minute drill.)

Prediction: Chiefs 33, 49ers 23

I’m rusty at making predictions, so I’ll avoid outsmarting myself here. In Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have arguably the best quarterback in football. They’ll have the best player on the field, and I’m going to go with that.

The 49ers’ run game was one of the best in the league this season, but the Chiefs’ defensive front has held up against the run quite well, even against Derrick Henry and the Titans. Chris Jones is two weeks healthier than he was for the AFC Championship, too.

All that makes me feel somewhat confident in the Chiefs’ ability to slow down what makes the 49ers great. San Francisco’s defense has been unprecedentedly good. It was ranked No. 2 in Footballoutsiders.com’s defensive efficiency metric, behind the Patriots. The last time we saw the Chiefs against a defense that good? Week 14 against the Patriots, a 23-16 win for Andy’s bunch.

Even if the 49ers defense gives the Chiefs trouble, and San Francisco gets an early lead, Mahomes and Co. are more than comfortable making up the lost ground. They’ve been an explosive offense in the playoffs. Mahomes has four completions of more than 20 yards in the last two games. They’ve figured out how to string together multiple productive drives during this stretch, which might be crucial.

If the Chiefs can get an early lead and make the 49ers one-dimensional, it would be a completely different story when considering the 49ers’ passing game. Could Jimmy Garoppolo win it from behind for San Francisco? Sure. We’ve seen stranger things happen in this game (see 2017). But I have always tried to avoid making predictions based on weird things happening.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, 49ers 27

I always root for the best story, and Andy Reid finally winning a Super Bowl at age 61, after devoting nearly most of his life to coaching, would qualify as a must-read. But at the risk of coming off as The Inquirer’s Debbie Downer, I think he might fall short once again.

I wouldn’t bet my next paycheck on it, despite how minuscule that may be, but the 49ers are the more complete team. The adage “go with the better quarterback” is a tried-and-true measure, but if that were always the case, the Eagles would have never won their only Super Bowl.

That being said, Patrick Mahomes is a thoroughbred I’d bet on under most circumstances. Heck, I’m tempted to change my prediction as I write this, especially as I list his weapons — Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Damien Williams, etc. — in this space. But I don’t think Reid’s offensive advantage vs. the 49ers’ very stout defense is as great as San Fran’s over the Chiefs’ suspect unit.

Kyle Shanahan is every bit the offensive innovator and play caller. The 49ers run game is clicking about as well as any that’s reached the Super Bowl in years. It can bleed the clock, especially if the Chiefs fall behind as they have in the last two games. Kansas City was able to keep Derrick Henry in check in the AFC Championship Game, but its front doesn’t match up well vs. the 49ers’ zone blocking schemes.

I think the game will be a shootout. I could see the Chiefs putting 40-plus on the board, especially if 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh sticks to his Cover 3. But the San Fran D-line has the advantage up front and I think Mahomes will be pressured more than he’s accustomed to. He’ll still be great, but not great enough.

I think.

Prediction: 49ers 34, Chiefs 31

The Chiefs fell behind the Houston Texans by 24-0 in the divisional round of the playoffs and still won by 20 points.

They fell behind the Tennessee Titans by 10-0 in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago and won by 11.

That recipe won’t work Sunday. They can’t oversleep against the 49ers, spot them a double-digit lead and hope to beat them in the homestretch. The 49ers defense is too good, and their run game can eat up the clock the way Mike McGlinchey can inhale a 16-ounce New York strip.

Andy Reid no doubt has some offensive tricks up his sleeve planned for Sunday. I think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball against the Niners. But I’m not sure they’re going to be able to put up the kind of point totals they did against the Texans and Titans.

I think the Niners’ pass rush is going to create more problems for Patrick Mahomes than he’s been used to. Mahomes has been sacked just twice in 72 pass plays in the postseason, and 19 times in 18 games the entire season.

Led by rookie Nick Bosa, the Niners had 48 sacks this year and finished third in sacks per pass play.

A bigger problem for the Chiefs in my mind, though, is going to be the matchup between Kyle Shanahan and the Niners’ offense and Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs’ defense.

While the Chiefs did a good job against Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship Game, they’ve struggled against the run this season. They’re 26th in run defense and 28th in opponent rush average.

The Niners’ offensive line has a lot of confidence right now. Both their offensive tackles — McGlinchey and Joe Staley — are healthy.

I think Andy Reid might have to wait at least another year to hold that elusive Lombardi Trophy.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24