Ian, a ‘major’ hurricane threat for the U.S., is brewing in the suddenly bustling Atlantic tropics

The first serious hurricane threat to the U.S. mainland in the suddenly revived 2022 season is brewing in the Caribbean, and meteorologists are warning that the impending tropical storm could blow up in a hurry and eventually approach Florida as a “major” hurricane.

At 11 p.m. Eastern Friday, the National Hurricane Center added Tropical Storm Ian to its seasonal roll call — several hours after declaring that Tropical Storm Hermine had formed in the far eastern Atlantic — bringing to four the number of named storms actively swirling in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Hermine is forecast to have a short and forgettable career, but Ian is expected to enter warm waters and an overall combustible environment, forecasters said, and could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph or better before approaching the Florida west coast by midweek.

“Residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” the National Hurricane Center said Friday.

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On Saturday morning Ian had peak winds of 45 mph, 6 mph better than the 39-mph peak-wind requirement for earning a name. Its development had been slowed in part because of Hurricane Fiona, which has been churning the North Atlantic like a washing machine, and for now has made the Jersey Shore waters hostile to bathers. The National Weather Service warned that “entering the surf will be strongly discouraged.”.

“It is a big deal,” said Paul Pastelok, hurricane specialist with AccuWeather Inc. “This thing can go really fast and catch people off-guard,” becoming an evacuation-time issue.

Pastelok likened it to Hurricane Delta in October 2020, when the Atlantic hurricane season exhausted the alphabet.

According to the hurricane center, in just 36 hours Delta jumped from an unnamed storm with 34-mph winds to a major hurricane with peak winds of 138 mph.

Delta eventually spun northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana. While it’s too soon to know this storm’s future path, it’s at least possible that Ian could follow a similar track, Pastelok said. And AccuWeather says the storm ultimately could affect the Mid-Atlantic region.

It took awhile for Ian to reach name status in part because of Fiona, said Philip Klotzbach, hurricane expert with Colorado State University. Shearing winds from Fiona’s outflow circulation had slowed the development process.

Wind shear, strong upper-level winds that limit the rising air that powers hurricanes, has been an issue all season in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf, a big reason why forecasters have pared down their robust preseason storm-number forecasts.

Klotzbach and Pastelok attribute that to a high-atmosphere system known as a tropical upper-tropospheric trough — or TUTT — a source of strong upper-level winds from the west that has had both drying and shearing effects on would-be storms.

Saharan dust in the upper atmosphere also has been a factor. Whatever the reasons, not a single storm worthy of a name, one with winds of 39 mph or better, formed from July 3 through August, the first time that happened in 81 years.

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That TUTT system has backed off, “at least in the Caribbean for the time being,” said Klotzbach, and the Atlantic season has been staging quite a rally.

In addition to Fiona, Hermine, and Ian, Tropical Storm Gaston was still alive in the northeastern Atlantic.

All symptoms late Friday afternoon were pointing to Ian becoming a potent storm.

The dry air along the storm’s potential path has been routed, said Pastelok. “There’s nothing in the central and western Caribbean,” he said, “and the waters are really warm.”

It is beyond too early to tell precisely where it will wind up.

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“Some models take into the Gulf of Mexico and have it linger there, while others take it across Florida quickly and up the Eastern Seaboard,” Klotzbach said.

The only certainty, however, is that the forecast track is going to undergo changes, some perhaps radically.