Black voters’ support for Trump could be key in 2024 election

When I consider the mixed picture painted by some recent polls about the 2024 election, including some that say more Black people are backing former President Donald Trump than ever before, I wonder: What is going on?

Consider, for example, a New York Times/Siena poll, released last month, which showed Trump’s support among Black voters has spiked to 23% — a dramatic shift, given that only 8% of Black voters opted for Trump over President Joe Biden in 2020. A recent Quinnipiac poll reported the exact same rate of support for Trump — 23% — among Black voters.

If these polls are true, then one in four Black voters is a Trump supporter — which boggles my mind, considering his history of racist remarks.

To make sense of what’s going on, I reached out to Christopher Towler of the Black Voter Project, an organization that seeks to provide accurate survey data for Black U.S. voters. He told me he doesn’t have much faith in what the current polls are saying, since they aren’t polling enough Black people to get an accurate picture. “I haven’t seen a poll that has more than 600 Black folk in it where support for Trump is above 10% or 11%, which is pretty much the sort of historical standard for Black support for Republican candidates,” said Towler, a cofounder of the Black Insights Research firm.

Although there’s an awful lot the Biden administration has done that will help Black people, much of it doesn’t have an immediate, direct impact. For instance, last year the federal government announced a new rule that aims to overhaul long-term racial discrimination by agencies that offer home loans, forcing banks to increase loans to borrowers seeking to buy in lower-income communities. But the rule doesn’t go into effect until 2026.

What’s more, many of the other changes under Biden — such as the low unemployment rate, expansion of the child tax credits, and building transportation infrastructure — don’t just benefit Black voters. They benefit everyone, which can make it more challenging for African Americans to point to specifically how Biden is working for our interests.

Then there’s the stalled passage of both the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act — not that that’s Biden’s fault.

Also, prices for consumer goods remain stubbornly higher than they were three years ago. Again, not Biden’s fault.

“For me, I’m not worried about them voting for Trump. I’m worried about them staying home because there’s nothing really worth voting for for either party,” said Towler, an assistant history professor at California State University, Sacramento.

» READ MORE: Support for Trump has spiked among Black voters. Why? I asked some to find out. | Jenice Armstrong

I ended the call with Towler feeling nervous. My attempts to understand Black people living in our area who say there’s no way they’ll vote for Biden aren’t helping.

Time and again, these Black voters listed reasons why they were disillusioned with Biden that are often easily refutable with a fact-check. But, as we’ve seen before, perception will always beat reality.

For instance, Kensington resident James Whitehead told me he supports Trump for two simple reasons: “One, I like the realism. Two, he’s a businessman.” (Even though his companies have filed for bankruptcy multiple times.)

Whitehead, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 (but Barack Obama in 2012), said he is also disappointed by Biden’s handling of the ongoing border crisis and the economy. He doesn’t believe the boasts about a record number of new jobs having been created under the current administration. “I don’t see it. I still see people struggling to make ends meet,” said Whitehead.

In other words, it doesn’t matter that the Biden administration says he has lowered the unemployment rate among Black workers and narrowed the gap between Black and white unemployment to record levels — what matters is perception.

Whitehead, who ran unsuccessfully as a Republican for City Council to represent the 7th District in 2022 and is running again, also identifies with how Trump is an “unconventional” candidate for president. “He’s far from perfect,” he added. “But the imperfect for him makes him perfect for me because ... he’s not your average politician.”

I’ll say.

Like the time in February when Trump told Black conservatives in South Carolina he thought Black voters are supporting him because they can relate to his criminal indictments. To me, that sounded ridiculous.

But to some African Americans, Trump’s comments were spot on. Armand James, 40, told me: “The more they target [Trump], the more people identify with him. I’ve heard this multiple times ... If they’re doing this to him, and he’s a billionaire and he’s white, then it’s like we really don’t have a chance.”

James, who intends to vote for Trump in November, also is attracted to traditional Republican causes, such as gun rights. “We need to protect ourselves when we go into the Wawa or we go into the gas station,” said James, who lives in West Oak Lane. “You want to be able to make money and have low taxes. We want to build a strong family foundation.”

James said that when he is in the barbershop, he often hears fellow customers speak with disdain about the president. “It’s like he’s inept and he doesn’t care about what we care about,” James said.

Then there is James Lowrie, a Germantown-based photographer who is leaning toward voting for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent. “I truly think Biden kind of needs to retire,” said Lowrie, 35. “No shade to his age or anything like that. But he doesn’t seem to be quite there. He has lost a step.” (Biden is 81. Kennedy is 70.)

Tiffany Vann, a 28-year-old conservative blogger based in Claymont, Del., told me she is tired of hearing about “programs.” “Where are the opportunities? That’s why I lean Republican. They are providing jobs.”

I didn’t explain how Democrats in the White House tend to create more jobs than Republicans. Because, again, it’s perception that matters.

All of the above is why I’m so antsy about November.

Granted, with eight months to go, a lot could shift. But the more I talk to certain folks, the more I wonder just how solidly the Black base will turn out for Biden.