GM meetings preview: Phillies free agents, the budget question, and is Nick Castellanos tradeable?

LAS VEGAS — Like the amuse-bouche in a five-course meal, baseball’s annual general managers’ meetings are usually a savory, palate-tantalizing morsel that leaves everyone at the table hungry for more.

But maybe this year will be different.

MLB pushed back the meetings by one week, until after the so-called “quiet period” when teams are still in the roster-organizing phase of the offseason. At past GM meetings, for instance, the Phillies might not know for sure yet that a player such as center fielder Harrison Bader planned to decline his mutual option.

» READ MORE: Let’s make a deal: Phillies trade ideas for Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, a catcher, and more

Now, though, much of the housekeeping is done, and teams have already started talking with free agents. Maybe, then, the adjusted calendar will spur more action.

Maybe.

OK, probably not.

As Dave Dombrowski leads the Phillies’ delegation into The Cosmopolitan to meet from Tuesday to Thursday with the rest of the industry — executives from other clubs, as well as agents and MLB officials — let this serve as a reminder that the baseball offseason unfolds much like the season itself: methodically and over a period of months, not days or even weeks.

But the next few days will likely provide greater clarity regarding some of the Phillies’ biggest questions. Among them:

At an end-of-season news conference last month, Dombrowski said it was a “real priority” to re-sign Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies also lack an in-house replacement for catcher J.T. Realmuto. Ranger Suárez and Bader are free agents, as well.

But the offseason hinges on Schwarber and Realmuto.

If Schwarber and Realmuto return, the Phillies can recast the outfield (without Nick Castellanos), tweak the bullpen, add rotation depth, and pack for spring training. But if Schwarber takes his 56 homers elsewhere, they must pivot to Kyle Tucker, or maybe Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, or Alex Bregman. And if Realmuto departs, they’ll likely need to trade for a catcher.

» READ MORE: Where will Kyle Schwarber land? Sizing up the Phillies’ competition in the free-agent sweepstakes

The cost for Schwarber figures to be in the $120 million to $150 million range for four or five years. If the Phillies bring him back, can they splurge for another nine-figure contract?

The 2025 payroll is expected to total approximately $312 million, as calculated for the luxury tax. There are limits to how much higher it can go — “I don’t think we’re going to have a $400 million payroll,” Dombrowski said last month — and the Phillies might be nearing it.

There’s roughly $28.5 million rolling off the books with the expected departures of free agents Max Kepler, Jordan Romano, Joe Ross, and David Robertson. But if the Phillies re-sign Schwarber, they would be closing in on $285 million in commitments for 2026 before making another move.

Given how difficult it is to find offense these days, there should be interest in Castellanos, who lost his everyday job in August.

Except ...

Castellanos will be 34 next season and had the lowest wins above replacement of any player in baseball this year (minus-0.6, according to FanGraphs). He’s in the midst of a three-year decline (OPS 2023 to 2025: .788, .742, .694; homers: 29, 23, 17; slugging: .476, .431, .400; bat speed: 72.4 mph, 71.9, 70.5). And he said he played through a left knee injury in the second half.

Whether the Phillies trade or release Castellanos, they will almost certainly have to pay down his $20 million salary.

» READ MORE: Free-agent outlook: J.T. Realmuto will be 35, but he remains as valuable as ever to the Phillies

The Phillies haven’t handed the outfield prospect a spot on the opening-day roster. But Dombrowski came close last month when he said Kepler is “not going to be back because we have Justin Crawford coming.”

It seems, then, that the only question is whether Crawford can handle center field. Opinions are mixed, even within the organization. Manager Rob Thomson said last month that some internal reports indicate he’s “maybe a little bit better in left than he is in center.”

The verdict could shape whether the Phillies try to re-sign Bader to play between Crawford and Brandon Marsh or look more for a corner outfielder. But the Phillies are definitely seeking an infusion of youth to a core of thirtysomethings, which means Crawford in the outfield, prized right-hander Andrew Painter in the rotation, and eventually Aidan Miller, perhaps at third base.

It was Dombrowski’s idea, and Thomson said he agreed, to move Mike Calitri into a newly created role of major league field coordinator and hire a new bench coach, likely with managerial experience.

Now that eight of nine managerial vacancies across the sport are filled, the Phillies’ pool of candidates should be more clearly defined.

Don Mattingly left his job as Blue Jays bench coach last week. But he said in June and reiterated last week that he’s unsure if he wants to continue coaching at age 64 and with a 10-year-old son.

The Phillies also are looking to replace assistant hitting coach Dustin Lind, who accepted a job last week as the Orioles’ hitting coach under new manager Craig Albernaz.