Phillies opt to stretch their competitive window with Kyle Schwarber and Co., and baseball seems to agree

ORLANDO — Did anyone really think the Phillies would let Kyle Schwarber leave?

Really?

Sure, they could’ve gone in another direction, especially as Schwarber began getting offers this week. The Pirates — yes, you read that right — made a four-year, $120 million whopper, a league source said Tuesday. The Orioles and Reds offered five years, The Athletic reported, with Baltimore willing to go to $150 million.

And as the market took off for a 33-year-old free-agent designated hitter, the Phillies could’ve tapped out.

» READ MORE: Where will Kyle Schwarber land? Sizing up the Phillies’ competition in the free-agent sweepstakes

But if you’ve paid attention, you know the Phillies believe Schwarber is unrivaled, as a slugger and certainly a leader. Dave Dombrowski said all along that Schwarber was the priority, not Cody Bellinger or Pete Alonso. Hitting coach Kevin Long emerged from organizational meetings in October and told The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast that losing Schwarber would be “devastating.”

Even owner John Middleton said this about Schwarber back in July: “We love him. We want to keep him.”

Middleton doesn’t usually get outbid for players he wants, least of all by the Pirates. Or the Orioles. Or even by Schwarber’s hometown Reds. And so it was, before lunch Tuesday, that the Phillies made the most predictable news at the winter meetings.

Schwarber back to Philly. Five years, $150 million, sources said.

“I had a pretty good idea that was going to be the route,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “Talking to Dave throughout the season, he knew that [Schwarber] was a huge part of what they were trying to accomplish and moving forward. So, not surprised that it’s with them.”

The deal isn’t finalized, so Dombrowski wouldn’t discuss it. But sources said the Phillies’ confidence in Schwarber’s ability to stay productive through his mid-30s stems from his consistent bat speed. He’s also a more complete hitter now than when he signed a four-year, $79 million deal with the Phillies in 2022, one year removed from being non-tendered by the Cubs.

Team officials have likened Schwarber to David Ortiz, who hit more than half his 541 homers after turning 32 and played through age 40. Schwarber’s contract will run through his age-37 season.

“He’s so different than most of the guys I’ve ever been around because he’s a great player, one, and he knows how to bring the heartbeat of the clubhouse down when things are going rough,” manager Rob Thomson said. “And not only the clubhouse but individuals as well. He’s just a huge part of our ballclub.”

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Lest anyone forget, it’s a club that won 96 games this year — and 95 the year before. The Phillies are tied with the Dodgers for the most wins in baseball over the last two seasons. But the Dodgers also won back-to-back World Series and made news Tuesday by signing star closer Edwin Díaz.

So, while the Phillies did what was necessary to bring back Schwarber, and extended Thomson’s contract through 2027, and remained optimistic about re-signing J.T. Realmuto, the perception, at least in Philly, is that they’re merely bringing back the band.

And given the players’ ages and contract terms, the band might start looking like the Rolling Stones in a few years.

But if the goal is to stretch the competitive window and take as many whacks as possible at the World Series, rival club officials surveyed in the lobby of the Signia by Hilton and baseball observers/insiders believe the Phillies are right to not make sweeping changes.

“Getting there is really hard to do, and improving in the season each year is really hard to do,” former major league general manager Jim Duquette said. “What the Phillies have accomplished is really, really difficult. If I’m the Phillies, I would be very careful with how many adjustments you make with that team.”

Duquette noted that the Braves kept most of their core together through their run of 14 consecutive division championships. Former Atlanta general manager John Schuerholz famously believed in changing about 10% of the roster in the offseason during those years.

Once Schwarber’s contract is finalized, the Phillies will have roughly $285 million in payroll commitments for 2026. They ended this year at about $312 million and expect to be in a similar range next year.

Even as they try to get Realmuto back behind the plate, the Phillies expect to make changes to other areas of the roster, notably the outfield. Touted rookie Justin Crawford is ticketed to be in the opening-day lineup, either in left field or center. Nick Castellanos will be traded or released. Top prospect Andrew Painter is almost sure to be in the season-opening rotation.

» READ MORE: How can Bryce Harper have an ‘elite’ season in 2026? It starts with examining his atypical 2025.

Dombrowski pushed back, then, on the idea that the Phillies are merely running it back, as if that would be a bad thing after 87-, 90-, 95-, and 96-win seasons and four playoff appearances in a row.

“I don’t think we ever just run it back. We’re not running our club back,” Dombrowski said, citing Crawford’s arrival and possibly an expanded role for Otto Kemp as examples of changes. “And when I say that, I’m not so sure where you win 96 games that you should really look to have to do a lot of things differently.”

Said Thomson: “We won 96 games last year. It’s not like we’re not doing well. We’ve got a good club. No matter what happens, we’re still going to have a good club.

“Even if we sign both [Schwarber and Realmuto] back, there’s still going to be some changes. And there might be some change within the lineup as far as the order, which could infuse a little bit of energy.”

More specifically, Thomson hinted at flipping Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the batting order.

Schwarber batted behind Harper for a month early in the season before the latter missed a month with an inflamed right wrist. When Harper returned, he batted third, with Schwarber cemented in the No. 2 spot. And while Harper faced a lower rate of pitches in the zone (43%) than any hitter in baseball, Schwarber hit a career-high 56 homers.

“Harper was protecting Schwarber,” Thomson said, “and Schwarber is having at that point a career year. I just didn’t want to mess with it.”

Upon further review, maybe it would be better the other way around?

“Yeah,” Thomson said. “I’ve got some ideas. But I haven’t talked to the players yet, so I don’t want to talk much more about that. But yeah, I’ve thought long and hard about it.”

Those are the changes Phillies officials believe could make the difference in a 96-win team getting knocked out in the divisional round and finally winning the World Series.

Moving on from Schwarber was nothing they ever cared to contemplate.