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Talkin’ Baseball: The Phillies aren’t playing, but one simulation says that’s a good thing

A day-by-day projection from Baseball Reference has the Phillies in last place through the first month of what would have been the 2020 season.

In a simulated 2020 season going on right now, the Phillies are 8-16. And this is how they'd feel about it.
In a simulated 2020 season going on right now, the Phillies are 8-16. And this is how they'd feel about it.Read moreCHARLES FOX / Staff Photographer

You’re missing baseball, right? Don’t you wish there was a Phillies game -- a live one and not a replay -- to watch?

Well, maybe you’re better off rewatching some of those wins from yesteryear. A day-by-day projection from Baseball Reference has the Phillies in last place through the first month of what would have been the 2020 season.

The website is using Out Of The Park, a popular baseball computer game, to play out the games that have been postponed by the coronavirus pandemic. So far, it hasn’t gone the Phillies’ way. Our baseball writers -- Bob Brookover, Scott Lauber, and Matt Breen -- checked in with the Fantasy Land Phillies.

Breen: Nearly a month into the season, the Phillies are 8-16. They have the National League’s second-worst record. This simulation is far from perfect -- Odubel Herrera hit a walk-off homer and Seranthony Dominguez is pitching -- but it clearly does not favor the Phils. They were even no-hit last week in Milwaukee. Yes, the Phillies finished 2019 in fourth place. But I think we would have been shocked if they started the season like this. Andrew McCutchen returned from the injured list, so maybe he’ll help their projections. Think back to before the shutdown: What were your expectations for this team?

Lauber: Well, I certainly would have been shocked to see Odubel Herrera hit a walk-off homer. An 8-16 record through 24 games is, as Joe Girardi might say, not what you want, especially with a bunch of April games against the Marlins and Blue Jays and Rangers. I know spring-training game results don’t mean squat, but they did play well in the Grapefruit League and I thought they would get out of the gate relatively OK.

Brookover: If the Phillies were 8-16, the fans would be ready to run Joe Girardi out of town, but this Baseball Reference simulation is stupid. Kudos to the Phillies’ social media department for jokingly tweeting that they have switched their stats allegiance to FanGraphs. The simulator must have forgotten that the Phillies have not had a problem starting seasons in recent years. The problem has been finishing them.

Lauber: So, for what it’s worth, March/April was perhaps going to be the softest part of the Phillies’ schedule (.469 opponent winning percentage, although only 10 of the 25 games were to be played at home). It gets much tougher with a steady diet of the Dodgers in May. Two trips to Atlanta in June, too.

Breen: I have a feeling that means it’s about to get worse for the Phillies in Fantasy Land.

Lauber: Just out of curiosity, and because I’m too lazy to look it up myself, which simulated NL team is worse than 8-16?

Breen: The Padres are 7-15.

Lauber: Has Simulated Manny Machado asked to be traded yet?

Breen: I wonder if his wife is cutting his hair during quarantine like us average Joes.

Brookover: In my simulation, Seranthony is throwing with his left arm because it’s such a good column and I claim it before you guys can get to it.

Breen: Trivia question: Who leads the Phillies in projected RBIs?

Lauber: Ben Revere. Oh sorry, that was the answer to our podcast trivia last week.

Brookover: I cheated and looked. Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce? I am losing all faith in bWAR.

Breen: You’re an awful cheater. Jean Segura. He has 20 RBIs! Digging more into the stats, Segura is batting .300 in his first 100 at-bats. Rhys Hoskins is batting .182 and Bryce Harper has four homers but is hitting .214 with a .727 OPS. On the pitching side, Aaron Nola has a 5.54 ERA through his first five but Jake Arrieta has a 3.86 ERA and Zack Wheeler has a 2.91 ERA. What stat stands out the most?

Brookie: Anyway, my mistake is no worse than the simulators. In my simulation, all the games last 2 hours and 20 minutes, the players can’t wait to talk to us after the game and technology creates a recorder that has the quotes transcribed before we get back upstairs.

Lauber: Prediction: If Jake Arrieta has a sub-4.00 ERA in 30-plus starts, the Phillies make the playoffs. So, yeah, the Arrieta stat stands out to me. I have no doubt, though, that Simulated Me is overreacting to Nola’s slow start. And I’m sure the public’s patience is wearing thin with Hoskins. Nobody needed a better start to the season than him.

Breen: Bump Nola’s ERA to last season’s 3.87 and the Phillies would have been contenders over a 162-game season with a league-average Arrieta and sub-3.00 ERA from Wheeler.

Brookie: I think Adam Morgan and his 13.50 ERA might be headed for the injured list.

Breen: He actually got outrighted. The simulation even has transactions. Again, another flaw with the simulation. Adam Morgan was not going to be outrighted this season. But the simulated bullpen is a weak link, which we talked about a lot during spring training. If the Phillies have a, say, 80-game season, how does the bullpen shake out? More important or less important?

Brookover: In my simulation, Adam Morgan has returned to the starting rotation and has a 2.35 ERA in three starts and visits hospitals on the days he is not pitching and loves animals and he went on a safari in the offseason and ... I like my simulation.

Lauber: Assuming a two-week resumption of spring training, starters won’t be built up to go six, seven, eight innings for several turns through the rotation. So, the bullpen becomes even more important than usual. However, with rosters likely to be expanded and teams perhaps being allowed to bring a taxi squad with them into the sci-fi Arizona biosphere, there will be more relievers to use, giving managers more options and thereby enabling the deeper teams to weather downturns from specific relievers. So individual performances might actually be less important.

Brookover: I like the first part of your answer and hate the second part. But I still like the second part better than the Baseball-Reference simulated season. This was the year they were supposed to limit September call-ups, but instead it’s going to be like a September call-up season. I would not mind that too much since that is better than no season at all, which is still where I think we are headed.

Breen: We have an email question from Stanley Y., who writes: “Trying to pass time through the pandemic and I’m thinking about the offseason. Who is one free agent the Phillies might target this winter?”

Lauber: J.T. Realmuto.

Breen: Ha. Good answer. I’ll throw Marcus Stroman out there. The Phillies didn’t trade for him at the deadline in 2019, but they land the righthander now as a free agent before he turns 30. It would be something if they signed starters away from the Mets in back-to-back offseasons.

Lauber: Non-Realmuto division, I’d say Jackie Bradley Jr. Catches everything in center field and has some pop from the left side.

Brookover: Didi Gregorious. They will need to keep his veteran presence and leadership qualities. Plus, he is the best power guy that they ever had at shortstop.

Breen: In real baseball, have you guys watched the CPBL in Taiwan? They have an English-language broadcast team and the benches cleared on Sunday. So much for social distancing.

Brookover: They, too, had cabin fever and it’s vicious once unleashed. Where do you get the broadcast?

Lauber: I’m holding out for the KBO. At least then I’ll get to see Aaron Altherr, Ben Lively, and David Buchanan.

Breen: It’s streamed on Twitter by ElevenSportsTaiwan. The production quality is really good. It’s a good way to get a feel for what it could be like to watch MLB on TV without fans in the stands. First, I thought the TV product would be tough to watch without the fans. But this makes me think that it’ll be doable. There’s also a team called the Monkeys and a team called the 7-Eleven Lions. The Phillies could become the Wawa Phillies to make up for lost revenue.

Lauber: Free hoagies for any media who cover the Wawa Phillies? I’m in!

Breen: Just don’t tell Mike Sielski.

Brookover: We could have the Sheetz Pirates as the primary rival in the Grapefruit League North Division.

Breen: Alll right. Maybe we’ll have some real games to watch sometime soon. Until then, we’ll see if the Phillies can climb out of last place in Fantasy Land and root on the 7-Eleven Lions.