The Mariners went all-in on Luis Castillo to try to end their playoff drought. Your move, Phillies.

With the trade deadline looming, Dealer Dave Dombrowski must live up to his name, even at the expense of a top Phillies prospect or two.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has a reputation for making big deals. Will he make one before Tuesday's 6 p.m. trade deadline?Read moreGregory Bull / AP

by Scott Lauber

Published Aug. 1, 2022, 6:00 a.m. ET

Dave Dombrowski said last week that the Phillies are contending for a wild-card berth more than a division title. He boasted of their trove of pitching prospects. He painted an organization that wants to win now but isn’t one player from reaching the World Series.

It was a realistic, self-aware portrayal of the state of the team.

Then, Dombrowski said this: “We’ve actually won the season series against all of the clubs that are the top teams. We’ve shown that we can beat Milwaukee; we’ve shown we can beat St. Louis; we’ve shown we can beat the Dodgers; we’ve shown we can beat San Diego. We have the ability to do that.”

And this: “If you make the postseason, anything can happen. And I do think we have a nice structure for a short series. We have really good starting pitching at the top, our bullpen’s deep and throwing very well, and when we’re healthy, I think we can hit good pitching as well as anybody. We’re dangerous in that type of situation.”

Executives can talk themselves into anything at the trade deadline. And the Phillies president of baseball operations sure sounded like he’s stuck in the middle of a debate between the wing of his front office that’s advocating for the hoarding of prospects and his inner voice that usually defaults to going all-in.

But now — and it may be too late — Dealer Dave must be Dealer Dave, even at the expense of (gulp!) a top prospect or two.

Because everything the Phillies do leading up to Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline is framed by a 10-year postseason absence. Because they are eight games over .500 for the first time since June 15, 2019. And because, with Jean Segura likely to return this week and Bryce Harper perhaps by the end of the month, the Phillies have their best chance to let some October sunlight peek through the cloud that has followed them for a decade, even if the only guarantee is a best-of-three wild-card series played entirely on the road.

Consider what happened Friday night in Seattle. The Mariners, the only team absent from the playoffs longer than the Phillies and run by wheeler-dealer Jerry Dipoto, acquired ace right-hander Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds for their Nos. 1, 2, 6, and 26 prospects, according to Baseball America’s rankings.

A steep price? You bet, especially since the Mariners are vying solely for a wild card. But they’re in position to seize a playoff spot, and when you haven’t gotten there since 2001, you do whatever it takes.

“We’ve got a chance to do something really big here this year,” Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters. “You have got to step out and take a chance once in a while. If you ultimately want to get the reward, take a little risk — and that’s what we’ve got here.”

With Castillo off the board, fellow power-armed right-hander Frankie Montas was the next-best option. The New York Yankees took him out of play Monday by shipping their Nos. 5, 9, and 20 prospects to Oakland.

Montas would’ve slotted in nicely behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in a short series, but the Phillies weren’t willing to move the prospect haul that would’ve gotten it done.

Too bad.

Who’s left? Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle, 27, has a 2.83 ERA in his last nine starts, a 3.93 mark since 2020, and one more year of club control. Miami’s Pablo López, 26, has two more years of control and a 3.25 ERA in the last two seasons. If the fading San Francisco Giants decide to sell, 29-year-old lefty Carlos Rodón has a 3.00 ERA in 21 starts and a 2.68 ERA over the last two years.

Maybe the Phillies don’t like any of them enough to give up one of their big three pitching studs — Andrew Painter, Mick Abel, or Griff McGarry — and possibly another top farmhand, such as catcher Logan O’Hoppe. Dombrowski is signaling that none is available anyway.

But there’s a difference between driving a hard bargain and drawing a line in the sand. The latter is difficult when the Cardinals and Padres — your prime competition for the playoff spot that has eluded you since the first Obama Administration — are reportedly the front-runners for Juan Soto. The Padres already made a deadline splash by trading for Brewers All-Star closer Josh Hader.

Asking prices for starting pitchers are said to be astronomical, according to multiple sources. But one major league source suggested that the Phillies’ second or third tier of pitching prospects — Ben Brown or lefty Erik Miller, for example — “should get them something.” They have scouted the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi, Pittsburgh’s José Quintana (reportedly headed to St. Louis late Monday night), and other starters with expiring contracts.

But Mahle, López, or Rodón would be more ambitious and potentially more impactful.

Besides — and this is where you should cover your eyes if you love prospects — the risk in dealing the most promising players in a farm system is often overblown.

From 2009 through 2011, the Phillies made chock-full-o-prospect trades to get Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, and to ship Lee to Seattle. Here are the minor leaguers who changed hands: Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, JC Ramirez, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Villar, Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton, Josh Zeid, and Domingo Santana.

Any regrets there? Maybe Carrasco, and he didn’t become a rotation mainstay in Cleveland until six years after getting dealt there.

Maybe Painter, Abel, and McGarry will all develop into top-notch major league starters. It’s more likely that one makes it really big. If the Phillies are confident in their self-scouting, they should turn one of the others into a proven Game 2 or 3 starter.

“We know Dave likes to go for it,” a major league source said over the weekend, “and if they keep playing well and Harper comes back in the picture down the stretch, you could see him going big.”

The Mariners went big to try to end their playoff drought. Will the Phillies?

Tick, tock.