Phillies’ trade deadline plans: In on starting pitching, out on dealing top prospects and likely Juan Soto

The Phillies have lost three straight to start the second half, but Dave Dombrowski is in go-for-it mode. At least to a point.

The Reds' Luis Castillo is the prize of the trade market among starting pitchers, but he would be costly.Read moreFrank Franklin II / AP

by Scott Lauber

Updated Jul. 25, 2022, 7:31 p.m. ET

Published Jul. 25, 2022, 7:09 p.m. ET

Eight days before the trade deadline, amid a slow-to-develop market as a result of an extra wild card in each league, Dave Dombrowski offered hints Monday about the Phillies’ direction.

Starting pitching appears to be the top priority, although it’s unlikely the Phillies will shop at the top of that seller’s market.
Top prospects (read: righthanders Mick Abel and Andrew Painter) are all but untouchable.
Juan Soto almost certainly won’t be fitted for red pinstripes.

“We’re in the wild-card race. That’s where we are,” Dombrowski said before the Phillies opened a pivotal three-game series against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. “Who knows what happens beyond there? But that’s where we’re trying to qualify for the postseason.”

In his second season as president of baseball operations and saddled with the organization’s decadelong postseason drought, Dombrowski struck a realistic tone. He noted that the Phillies were 9½ games out of first place entering Monday night. But they were also one game out of the final National League wild-card spot, with winning records against the powerhouse Dodgers (4-3) and contending Padres (4-3), Brewers (4-2), and Cardinals (4-3).

So, although the Phillies were swept over the weekend by the rebuilding Cubs, Dombrowski is in go-for-it mode. Up to a point.

At present, the Phillies are playing without Bryce Harper (broken left thumb), Jean Segura (broken right index finger), and Zach Eflin (bruised right knee). Segura is set to begin a minor league assignment Tuesday and could return by next week. Harper and Eflin will take longer.

But Dombrowski drew a distinction between their timelines. While he said Harper’s injury “is not one of those where it’s [going to be] long enough that you go out and trade for someone that’s going to take that position,” he characterized Eflin’s knee problem as a “slow healing process.”

“I’d love for him to come back, but I don’t know when,” Dombrowski said. “So I don’t think, from my perspective, that I can just say we’re going to wait for that to happen. I don’t think we can just sit here and wait to see what takes place.”

The problem is that the trade market for starting pitchers is both shallow and competitive.

The Reds’ Luis Castillo is the prize. But given his 2.37 ERA over his last 11 starts and the fact that he’s under club control through next season, Cincinnati is believed to be seeking at least two elite prospects in any package. In the Phillies’ case, that likely means Abel or Painter, plus catcher Logan O’Hoppe or centerfielder Johan Rojas.

“Every position there’s premium guys out there, and then there’s other guys that could be helpful,” Dombrowski said. “Well, the premium guys are probably going to cost you your top prospects. I don’t think, as an organization, we’re in that position right now. I just don’t think we’re there.”

The pitching market drops off after Castillo. Oakland’s Frankie Montas has a 3.16 ERA but recently missed two weeks with shoulder inflammation. Arizona would surely move Madison Bumgarner, but he’s owed $37 million over the next two years. It’s less certain that the Diamondbacks would deal Merrill Kelly, who will make only $8.5 million in each of the next two years.

A year ago, the Phillies gave up erstwhile prospect Spencer Howard to get Kyle Gibson in part because they were getting Gibson for this season, too. This year, they may be more inclined to trade a lower-level prospect for a starter with an expiring contract, such as the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, Pittsburgh lefty José Quintana, or Colorado right-hander Chad Kuhl, a Delaware native.

So far, though, the price for even back-end starters is through the roof, according to Dombrowski. Perhaps it will drop by 6 p.m. on Aug. 2.

“You might ask for a No. 5 starter and they might ask you for your No. 1 prospect. I mean, that’s where you are,” Dombrowski said. “We still have eight days. That’s an eternity at the trade deadline. Because if you talk to somebody and you’re looking for a fill-in guy, a backup utility guy, ‘Oh, we’ll take your top two starting pitchers.’ It’s like, ‘What?’ But come Aug. 1, they won’t be looking at that same type of thing.”

Across baseball, the biggest question is where Soto will be playing after Aug. 1. After he turned down a reported 15-year, $440 million extension offer, the Nationals are listening to potential offers.

The Phillies would be a long shot for Soto for the simple fact that the Nationals are unlikely to trade him within the NL East unless a division rival makes a considerably better offer than they get anywhere else. But with a payroll nearing $240 million and a top-heavy roster, Dombrowski suggested it’s not the right time in the Phillies’ life cycle to pursue a “generational talent” such as Soto.

“We have some generational talents with us over here,” he said. “I don’t know that we’re swimming in that market. I love star players. I always have. I have acquired a lot of them. I know [owner] John Middleton likes that. But we do have some star players. I think of the problem we’ve had is the depth of talent in our organization. To strip the depth of our talent to add a generational talent, I don’t know that is where we sit at this point.”

Where the Phillies sat, entering Monday night, was one game out of the playoff spot that has eluded them since 2011, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop the starting rotation and Harper and Segura on the mend.

Even a modest deadline boost could make a difference.

“If you make the postseason, anything can happen,” Dombrowski said. “And I do think that if we’re in a short series, the way we are, we have a nice structure for a short series. We’re dangerous in that type of situation. So, if we can get to that spot, that’s extremely important for us.”