Phillies or Braves? Our predictions for the NL Division Series

Here we go again. The Phillies and Braves will meet again in the best-of-five National League Division Series, which gets underway Saturday. Like last season, when the Braves also finished 14 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East standings, Atlanta has the edge on paper. But that didn’t matter when the Phillies disposed of them in four games to advance to the NLCS on their way to the World Series.

Can the Phillies once again get past the Braves, whose lineup this season actually outslugged the 1927 Yankees? Here are our predictions:

A two-game sweep of Miami was nice, but the playoffs start Saturday in Atlanta against a Braves team that’s even better than the one the Phillies toppled last October. And this series will end just like that one. The Phillies will win one of the first two games at Truist Park before winning Games 3 and 4 in South Philly. The Braves looked totally spooked last October by the crowd at CBP — remember Marcell Ozuna’s at-bats and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s effort on J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer — and it’s hard to imagine them handling a scene that feels even crazier this year. The best home-field advantage in baseball will see another NLCS.

Prediction: Phillies in 4.

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Because these are two teams that were built to slug, this series is likely going to come down to starting pitching. And the Phillies’ top three starters are in a better spot than the Braves’ top three, from a health and performance standpoint. Ranger Suárez will start Game 1 against Spencer Strider, and Zack Wheeler — who has always pitched well in Atlanta — will take Game 2 against Max Fried, who is managing a blister on his left index finger. All the Phillies need to do is split in Atlanta. Wheeler gives them a good chance to do that. It’s hard to imagine them losing two games in Philadelphia — especially with Strider pitching against Wheeler in front of Phillies fans in a potential Game 4.

Prediction: Phillies in 4.

The Braves have four 30-homer hitters, slugged .501 as a team, and led the majors with an .845 OPS, 50 points higher than the next team and 80 points higher than the Phillies. Acuña is the first 40-homer/70-steal player in history. Ace pitcher and ace leg-presser Spencer Strider struck out 281 hitters, 20% more than the next pitcher. But the pitching staff was mediocre as a whole, Strider’s 3.86 ERA will keep him from winning the Cy Young Award, and putative Game 1 starter Ranger Suárez has pretty good numbers against the Braves. Then again, Wheeler and Aaron Nola get crushed by the Braves, so …

Prediction: Braves in 4.

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When the Braves came to Citizens Bank Park last month for a series that ended with them clinching a sixth consecutive NL East title and popping champagne in the visitors’ clubhouse, manager Brian Snitker said this about the Phillies: “This team scares me as much as any team in the game.” It’s possible, then, that Snitker was rooting harder this week for the Marlins than most people in South Florida. The Braves won 104 games, scored more runs than any team in the drug-testing era, and posted the highest slugging percentage (.501) ever. But the Phillies have October magic. And none of the Braves’ history-making success will matter if they don’t win Game 1 behind ace Strider. How’s that for pressure? The Phillies upset the Braves in the divisional round last year, and well, there’s a déjà vu-ish feeling in the air.

Prediction: Phillies in 5.

I keep coming back to the thought of the Braves starting normie righty Bryce Elder against Nola at Citizens Bank Park in Game 3 and I just can’t talk myself into believing in Atlanta. Couple that with Max Fried and his finger boo-boo against a locked-in Wheeler in Game 2 and suddenly Suárez vs. Strider and a rusty Braves offense looks like a potential backbreaker.

Prediction: Phillies in 3.

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This NLDS has the potential and promise to be an all-time great postseason series. The Braves are a machine: 104 victories, 307 home runs, four terrific starting pitchers. The Phillies have a deep lineup, the best home-field advantage in the sport, and a looseness/fearlessness that makes them particularly dangerous. This series will come down to whether the Phillies’ pitchers can get the Braves’ hitters out often enough. Flip a coin, but ...

Prediction: Braves in 5.

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