Phillies’ opening-day roster projection: Andrew Painter, No. 5 starter? How will the DH be used?

A few months ago, as the Phillies began to map out their offseason plans, one team official said he “will be shocked” if 19-year-old phenom Andrew Painter “isn’t our No. 5 starter coming out of spring training.”

In that case, this was bound to be the Spring of Painter.

But while the prized right-hander’s bid to break camp with the team always figured to be a central plot point, his every pitch could turn into a spring-training obsession based on the Phillies’ uncommon lack of competition for jobs. Pitchers and catchers will report to Clearwater, Fla., in 15 days, and barring injuries — even with Bryce Harper expected to miss the first few months of the season while recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery — all but three, maybe four, of the 26 roster spots are locked up.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter, Phillies’ No. 5 starter in 2023? It could happen. Just look to Rick Porcello.

That’s what happens when ownership green-lights a club-record payroll that will approach and possibly even exceed $253 million, the second tier of the luxury-tax threshold. Within that budget, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was able to fill five roster spots via free-agent signings totaling $399 million, $300 million of which went to star shortstop Trea Turner.

What remains up for grabs? A couple of bench spots, maybe a seat in the bullpen. Oh, and that No. 5 starter job, with Painter angling to become the first 19-year-old to start a game for the Phillies since Mark Davis in 1980. He turns 20 on April 10.

» READ MORE: Scott Kingery was poised to be the Phillies’ next star. Now he hopes to make the most of one more chance.

So, yes, get ready for the Spring of Painter.

Opening day is still 56 days away — March 30 in Texas — but let’s fast-forward through spring training and take a swing at projecting the Phillies’ 26-man roster:

J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs

Nothing to see here, except for how many starts Realmuto will make.

Last year, he caught 1,131⅔ innings, 127 more (the equivalent of 14 games) than any catcher — and that was before he played every inning of the postseason. Over the last five seasons, Realmuto has the highest workload behind the plate by 318 innings — or 35 games.

» READ MORE: How much will it cost the Phillies to keep Aaron Nola beyond 2023?

History tells us it’s bound to take a toll. But Realmuto, who turns 32 on March 18 and intends to celebrate by playing (of course) for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, actually got better as last season wore on.

The Phillies might take advantage of Harper’s early-season absence and use the designated hitter to give Realmuto’s body an occasional break. Stubbs will reprise his role as the seldom-used backup, with Rafael Marchan and recently signed John Hicks (32 career major-league homers) as depth in triple A.

Rhys Hoskins (1B), Bryson Stott (2B), Turner (SS), Alec Bohm (3B), Edmundo Sosa (UT), Josh Harrison (UT), Darick Hall (DH)

Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, Jake Cave

As long as they’re healthy, Hoskins, Stott, Turner, Bohm, Schwarber, Marsh, and Castellanos will play every day.

But how often will any of them be the DH?

How the Phillies design the bench will depend on how they use the DH in Harper’s absence. Last year, when Harper broke his thumb and missed two months, they called up Hall from triple A and made him the DH against right-handed pitching. He made the most of the chance, slugging .522 with nine homers in 136 at-bats.

Manager Rob Thomson could go that route again — Hall as the DH against righties and a DH rotation against lefties. When Hoskins or Bohm take a turn, Sosa would play third base; when Schwarber or Castellanos are the DH, Cave or Dalton Guthrie could play the outfield.

(Cave, claimed off waivers in November, gets the slight edge here as a left-handed hitter with more outfield experience, although Guthrie did play a lot of center field last year in triple A.)

But the Phillies could also rotate the DH at all times to optimize for defense, where they are below average at the corners in the infield and outfield. Are they better with Sosa at third base, Bohm at first, and Hoskins as the DH? What about with Cave (or Guthrie) in right field and Castellanos as the DH?

» READ MORE: What the shortstop aging curve means for the Phillies’ 11-year contract with Trea Turner

In that case, they could opt for lefty-hitting Kody Clemens’ positional versatility over Hall, who is strictly a first baseman/DH.

But Hall did well last year as the primary DH in a Harper-less lineup. Unless he struggles in the spring, it might make the most sense to start out that way again and adjust accordingly.

Seranthony Domínguez (R), Craig Kimbrel (R), José Alvarado (L), Gregory Soto (L), Matt Strahm (L), Connor Brogdon (R), Andrew Bellatti (R), Nick Nelson (R)

The absence of competition is most stark in the bullpen, where there’s typically an opening or two entering spring training. But the Phillies have a full house after spending a total of $25 million on Kimbrel and Strahm and picking up Soto in a five-player trade with Detroit.

On paper, it has the makings of a good bullpen, with hard throwers (Domínguez, Alvarado, and Soto, in particular), experience (active saves leader Kimbrel), and no shortage of late-game options for Thomson to deploy based on matchups, situations, and availability.

» READ MORE: Will Craig Kimbrel reemerge as a closer for the Phillies? His ‘twin’, Billy Wagner, believes he can.

As always, though, the Phillies’ depth will be tested. They think they have collected enough optionable reserves at triple A, with newcomers Yunior Marté, Luis Ortiz, and Erich Uelmen joining nonroster holdovers such as McKinley Moore, Andrew Baker, and Francisco Morales.

Zack Wheeler (R), Aaron Nola (R), Ranger Suárez (L), Taijuan Walker (R) ... and Painter (R)

Maybe Painter dominates in spring training, as he did at three levels of the minors last year. Maybe he does just enough to edge out lefty Bailey Falter, who will surely join the rotation at some point as an injury replacement or the extra starter who will be required to help manage the workloads of not only Painter but also Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez after they pitched deep into the postseason.

But listen to Phillies officials gush over Painter and one thing is clear: He has a real chance to make the team. He might even be the front-runner.

Painter’s readiness will be determined, in part, by the sharpness of his offspeed pitches. His fastball registers in the upper-90s, but the top pitching prospect in the sport, according to Baseball America, will need to demonstrate consistent effectiveness with his slider and either his curveball or changeup.

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies’ Andrew Painter be the next teen phenom in 2023?

In the last 30 years, only two 19-year-olds have pitched in a major-league starting rotation: Julio Urías (2016) and Felix Hernández (2006). But Dombrowski isn’t afraid to push young pitchers. In Detroit, he called up Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman when they were 20.

Could Painter be next?

All eyes will be on him.