Do the Phillies really need another hitter? Can they really afford Chicago’s Luis Robert Jr.?

It’s hard to change the identity of a baseball team in late July. If a front office feels like it needs to, then it has already failed. The maddening thing about the Phillies’ two biggest issues is that they have not changed since opening day. In fact, they haven’t changed in two years. When the Phillies decided to enter 2025 with Max Kepler in left field and Jordan Romano in the back of the bullpen, most of the fan base figured Dave Dombrowski would end up exactly where he is right now: scrambling to find an actual solution.

That’s a difficult thing to do in the middle of a season. Dombrowski knows this better than anybody. Fixing offseason mistakes takes a lot more than saying “Oopsie.” The trade market deadline always exacts its pound of flesh.

» READ MORE: Reliever supply might not meet demand at the trade deadline. Here are some options for the Phillies.

This year’s market dynamics aren’t much different than they were last year, when the Phillies settled for a less-than-elite rental closer in Carlos Estévez and a swap of expendable parts with the Orioles, sending Seranthony Domínguez to Baltimore in exchange for Austin Hays. With 17 of 30 teams above .500 and 22 within five games of a playoff spot entering Tuesday’s games, there are a limited number of traditional sellers. Everybody else must be incentivized to sell.

It’s my belief that teams like the Mariners and Yankees will turn out to be the smart ones. In settling for modest acquisitions — Josh Naylor for Seattle, Ryan McMahon for New York — both teams gave you a pretty good idea of where asking prices are at the top of the market.

Dombrowski shouldn’t hesitate to follow in his own footsteps from last season. Hays’ resurgence with the Reds this season (.835 OPS, 10 home runs, 236 plate appearances) makes you wonder what might have happened for him down the stretch in Philly with a different set of circumstances. Likewise with Estévez, who has been pretty much the same pitcher in Kansas City as he was for the Phillies at the end of last season. The Phillies did not lose the National League Division Series at the deadline last year. Nor could they have won it.

It’s ludicrous to suggest that the Phillies should be thinking about parting with one of their top prospects in a move for somebody like Eugenio Suárez, a 33-year-old rental bat who has emerged as one of the deadline’s buzziest candidates. Prospects are a dime a dozen right up until you trade the one who turns into Pete Crow-Armstrong. That’s how you end up setting your franchise back by a decade.

The Phillies should not be acting out of desperation with regard to their lineup. The times are not desperate. The following numbers might surprise you. They surprised me. But they are as honest as numbers can be.

» READ MORE: Three big questions about the Phillies offense before the trade deadline

Here’s where the Phillies ranked among major league teams over their last 40 games entering Tuesday night:

The Phillies should absolutely be looking at White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. But be prepared for the sticker shock.

That’s not to say Dombrowski and Preston Mattingly should be walking through the executive suite singing “Hakuna Matata.” The lineup has holes, particularly at the bottom. It’s inexcusable to enter a postseason with a below-average bat in left field, especially when it is coupled with what the Phillies have in center. The point is, they need to be thinking value. The lower the bar, the easier it is to raise.

The biggest question right now is where a certain White Sox center fielder sits on the value spectrum.

Heat, humidity, cicadas, and Luis Robert Jr. These are the things that we talk about every summer. This year, baseball’s greenest of evergreen trade storylines comes with a wrinkle. About a month ago, people had finally reached a point where they realized the juice probably wasn’t worth the squeeze.

Robert, who hit 38 home runs in 2023 at 25 years old, entered June as one of the worst hitters in the majors. He’d gone four straight months, including last season, without posting a .600 OPS, finishing May with a .521 OPS with a .194 batting average. In doing so, he seemed to have cemented his fall from trade market darlings to certified sunk cost.

» READ MORE: Phillies aim high as they seek bullpen help. But will a trade cost them some top prospects?

Well, the time to buy the dip may have passed. Robert’s two-run home run off of Cristopher Sánchez on Monday evening was his sixth in 28 games, a stretch where he has looked even better than the guy he was at his peak. His .267/.353/.500 batting line (.853 OPS) comes with noticeable improvements in his famously aggressive approach. His 24 strikeouts and 10 walks during this stretch equate to a 162-game pace of 139 and 58. Compare that to 2023, when Robert’s 38 home runs came with 172 strikeouts and 30 walks in 595 plate appearances.

The guy we saw at the beginning of the White Sox-Phillies series is a guy that a lot of contenders would have interest in at the right price. Which usually leads to a price that isn’t right.

Dombrowski can’t afford to get baited into that kind of bidding war. There’s no shame in settling for a rental righty who gives you more in left field than you already have. Couple that with one of the lower-cost high-leverage arms and call it a day. It may not win the Phillies the trade deadline. But rarely does that win you a World Series.