Phillies aim high as they seek bullpen help. But will a trade cost them top prospects?
They have been protective of Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, and Justin Crawford. But as the trade deadline approaches, it looks like the price for a top reliever will be high.
If you’re wondering why relief pitching remains the Phillies’ foremost trade-deadline priority over, say, another hitter, gather ’round for a reminder of how baseball has changed.
Way back when, in 2014, there were 32 postseason games and 30 instances of a starting pitcher completing at least six innings. In 2019, it happened 33 times in 37 playoff games.
But last year: only 19 six-inning starts in 43 games.
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More than ever, the postseason is about bullpens. So, as much as the Phillies’ stable of starters gives them an edge in getting into October, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, Jesús Luzardo, and eventually, Aaron Nola will carry them only so far once the tournament begins.
In the last two postseasons, getting the last six to 12 outs was a problem. The Phillies blew a 1-0 lead in the eighth inning of a tone-setting Game 1 of the divisional round last year against the Mets. And before the offense went silent at home in Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NL Championship Series, the bullpen melted down in Games 3 and 4 in Arizona.
No wonder, then, with 48 hours to go until Thursday’s 6 p.m. deadline, two rival team officials said they believed the Phillies were aiming high in their pursuit of bullpen help.
But at what cost?
Under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have been protective of their top prospects: right-hander Andrew Painter, shortstop Aidan Miller, and center fielder Justin Crawford. When they did trade a top-10 player from the farm system, it was for a controllable major leaguer. (Spencer Howard for Kyle Gibson; Logan O’Hoppe for Brandon Marsh; Starlyn Caba for Luzardo.)
The Phillies made a “significant” offer, according to owner John Middleton, at the deadline last year for then-White Sox ace Garrett Crochet, whom they would’ve had for three playoff runs. It’s likely that Miller or Crawford was involved.
A year later, it’s worth wondering if the Phillies can fill their biggest roster need while holding on to their most prized prospects.
The answer, as ever, is in the eye of the beholder.
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In the view of one evaluator from an NL team, the Phillies’ system is top-heavy, with a cliff dive after Painter, Miller, Crawford, 20-year-old infielder Aroon Escobar, and 18-year-old catcher Eduardo Tait. But another NL evaluator said they “have some depth,” citing right-hander Mick Abel as a trade chip who could thrive in a market that is less pressure-filled than Philadelphia.
Opinions of Escobar, in particular, are favorable. One scout compared him to former Phillies infielder Plácido Polanco as a “thick-bodied kid who can really hit.” Another suggested Escobar, who has played primarily second base this season, has the upside of Astros infielder Isaac Paredes, a two-time All-Star.
Could the Phillies build a package around Escobar to land a closer? Maybe. But Escobar, like Tait, only recently got promoted to high-A Jersey Shore and is unlikely to be major league-ready until 2027 or 2028. Most deadline sellers are looking for more immediate impact.
Twins closer Jhoan Durán remains the top target for many reliever-needy contenders. But there was still uncertainty over whether Minnesota will trade players who are controllable beyond this season, especially because the team is up for sale. And the price on Durán, setup man Griffin Jax, and starter Joe Ryan would be high.
Other available late-inning relief options figure to include the Pirates’ David Bednar and Dennis Santana and walk-year closers Ryan Helsley (Cardinals) and Kyle Finnegan (Nationals). One major league source suggested the Rays could move Pete Fairbanks, who has an affordable $7 million team option for 2026.
Take former Phillies reliever Seranthony Domínguez off the board. The Orioles traded him to the Blue Jays on Tuesday in a deal that might help solidify the market for Helsley or Finnegan.
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Like Domínguez, Helsley and Finnegan have contracts that expire after the season, making them two-month trade rentals. The Blue Jays acquired Domínguez for double-A right-hander Juaron Watts-Brown, their No. 14 prospect in Baseball America’s rankings.
Not every farm system is created equal. And Helsley is a two-time All-Star closer, whereas Domínguez is a setup man. But righty Jean Cabrera, who has a 3.63 ERA in 18 double-A starts, is the Phillies’ 15th-ranked prospect. It’s possible Cabrera and another midlevel prospect could yield Helsley.
The Phillies paid a similar price for bullpen help at last year’s deadline, when they swapped two top-20 prospects (pitchers George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri) to the Angels for walk-year closer Carlos Estévez.
“Probably a little more than you like to give up for a rental,” Dombrowski said at the time.
Sure. And the prices won’t be any lower this time around.
If the Phillies are aiming high (Durán or Jax) or for another reliever whom they can keep beyond this season (Bednar, Santana, Fairbanks), they might have to sacrifice one or more of those half-dozen top prospects. If there’s any chance of prying Durán out of Minnesota, it might even cost one of the top three.
Is it worth it for the win-now Phillies to fix the bullpen?
Two days remain for them to decide.