Phillies playoffs preview: Roster decisions, Aaron Nola question, and how will they use Orion Kerkering?

The party started with a speech.

Rob Thomson gathered his players in the middle of the clubhouse Tuesday night and told them they’re engineered to win in the playoffs. Getting back there was the hard part, the manager said. And after the Phillies finally locked up a wild card, he declared October to be their time of year.

Then, he reached back for a 2022 tradition.

“J.T., how many more wins?” Thomson asked.

“Thirteen wins!” said star catcher J.T. Realmuto, shaking up and popping a bottle of bubbly.

Since Thomson brought up last year, that was when his theory about the Phillies being built for October gained steam. They won 87 games, made the playoffs in the third-to-last game, and marched all the way to Game 6 of the World Series.

A year later, the roster is better, by every possible measure. Beyond that, what gives Thomson the confidence that October will be the Phillies’ best month again?

“We have good starting pitching, we have a good bullpen, and we have a good offense,” Thomson said. “We have a couple of really high-end starters at the front end. I think we’re built for it. It was just a matter of getting in. And now we’ll see what we’ve got. But I think this is like we were last year — a club that is built for a short series.”

Maybe. But that doesn’t mean the Phillies don’t have questions. Let’s dive in, with Game 1 of the wild-card series looming Tuesday.

Almost exactly like it looks like now.

Playoff rosters are trimmed back to 26 players from the expanded 28-man group in September. The Phillies likely will excise seldom-used infielder Rodolfo Castro and mop-up reliever Dylan Covey and keep lefty-hitting Jake Cave and reliever phenom Orion Kerkering (more on him in a bit).

It’s conceivable the Phillies could opt for righty-hitting utilityman Weston Wilson for the final bench spot, especially if they face the Marlins, who have four prominent lefty relievers (Matt Moore, Andrew Nardi, Steven Okert, and A.J. Puk). But if they play the righty-heavy Diamondbacks, or even the Cubs, Cave makes the most sense.

In that case, Wilson would stay in Clearwater, Fla., at a “stay-ready” training camp that also includes pitchers Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Yunior Marte, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Michael Plassmeyer, and Luis Ortiz; catcher Rafael Marchan; and infielders Kody Clemens and Darick Hall.

» READ MORE: Orion Kerkering, Seranthony Domínguez impress as Phillies win, postseason bullpen roles emerge

Like most managers in the postseason, Thomson will turn to the bullpen earlier and more often.

And he will have more options than a year ago.

Last October, the Phillies used only four relievers in the two wild-card games in St. Louis. No fewer than seven (lefties José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Gregory Soto; and righties Craig Kimbrel, Jeff Hoffman, Kerkering, and Seranthony Domínguez) are in play now.

Kimbrel and Alvarado are interchangeable in the eighth and ninth innings based on lefty-righty matchups. Beyond that, Thomson can optimize each pitcher’s strengths.

Against the Diamondbacks, for instance, Soto (.443 OPS vs. lefties) might be the choice in the middle innings against a lineup pocket that includes Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Jace Peterson; Domínguez (.643 OPS vs. right-handed hitters) could match up with a Tommy Pham/Christian Walker/Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grouping.

Hoffman is likely the top choice to slam the door with runners on base. Strahm has multiple-inning capability in case of a short start or can put out a fire.

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It’s good to have options. And that doesn’t even include starters Ranger Suárez, who has bullpen experience, and Cristopher Sánchez, a lefty who has held hitters to a .276 slugging percentage against his bat-slowing changeup.

“I like the way a lot of guys are pitching right now,” Thomson said.

If there’s a secret weapon in the playoffs, it’s the Phillies’ 22-year-old righty with a wicked slider and an upper-90s fastball who got called up to the majors only last week after opening the season in low-A.

Kerkering’s stuff is electric. He’s also a man of mystery because the scouting data isn’t as voluminous.

“You can watch all the tape and do all that stuff, but until you get in the box and see it live,” Thomson said, “that’s why experienced clubs sometimes struggle with a guy they’ve never seen before. It’s just different live than watching on tape or reading a report. I think that there’s a benefit there for him.”

There are still questions. Kerkering threw fewer strikes Wednesday night against the Pirates than in his major league debut Sunday against the Mets. He hasn’t pitched on back-to-back days and won’t before the season is over. He has never experienced the pressure of the postseason.

Still, the stuff is, well, let catcher Garrett Stubbs describe it.

“Disgusting,” Stubbs said.

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And Thomson is committed to finding spots to utilize Kerkering in the playoffs.

“From what I saw [Sunday] night,” Thomson said, “that’s pretty much enough.”

None of the above will matter more than this.

Once more, the Aaron Nola narrative: He bet on himself after not hammering out a contract extension with the Phillies, then struggled to adapt to the pitch clock, allowed 32 homers, and posted a 4.46 ERA in a rough free-agent walk year.

But here were Nola’s last two starts:

Nola won’t pitch again before Game 2 of the wild-card series. The Phillies could’ve had him toss a few innings Sunday in New York. Instead, he will throw two bullpen sessions.

“I think it’s the best thing for him,” Thomson said.

Especially considering Nola has a 3.68 ERA in five starts on six or more days’ rest compared to 4.48 when he goes four days between starts and 4.71 on five days’ rest.

“Strike-throwing ability and use of the changeup,” Thomson said, identifying Nola’s biggest areas of improvement. “The other stuff has played really well. The glove-side fastball has been really good. I think he’s kind of locked in right now.”

If so, it could make all the difference.

» READ MORE: A 7-year-old Orion Kerkering watched the Phillies in the 2008 World Series. Now he’s making an unlikely bid for their playoff roster.