Everything you need to know about the Phillies’ potential playoff opponents ... and why you should root for chaos

Now what?

The Phillies no longer have anything to fear except fear itself.

That, and maybe the Braves.

After clinching their second straight playoff berth and the National League’s top wild-card seed, the Phillies have assured themselves of a home series in the first round. In doing so, they’ve set themselves up to spend the final five days of the regular season lining up their pitching staff and rooting for havoc among their four potential opponents.

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“It’s nice to clinch on our own, rather than counting on somebody else to lose,” Zack Wheeler said Tuesday night as he stood in the midst of the mayhem in the Phillies clubhouse. “We get to do this kind of stuff. It’s fun.”

Only two questions remain:

The second question could end up being the more consequential one.

Going into Wednesday’s games, there were four teams realistically vying for the final two playoff spots (not counting the all-but-eliminated Padres). A total of 2½ games separated them in the standings. The top three teams were separated by a mere 1½ games. The ultimate leader among that bunch will face the Phillies. The runner-up will face the Brewers. The other two will go home for the offseason.

Instead of rooting for or against any of the teams, the Phillies are in a position where they should be rooting against all of them. The longer it takes for their eventual opponent to clinch, the better.

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The key variable in play is the condensed nature of the playoff schedule and the havoc it can wreak on a team’s pitching rotation. The regular season ends on Sunday. The postseason begins two days later. Starting pitchers generally need four days of rest between starts.

You can do the math.

The next few days have a chance to tilt the odds wildly in the Phillies’ favor. The two teams to play closest attention to are the Diamondbacks and the Cubs, given the potential impact of starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (for Arizona) and Justin Steele (for Chicago).

They are probably the biggest threat to the Phillies, in large part because they have the best one-two pitching punch of the group. Gallen and Kelly, both right-handers, aren’t necessarily Wheeler and Aaron Nola of a year ago. But they are definitely capable of it.

Earlier this month, Gallen, a 2013 graduate of Bishop Eustace, pitched a three-hit shutout against the Cubs, striking out nine and walking one. For the season, he has gone six-plus innings with two or fewer runs in 17 of 33 starts. He’s been more human since the All-Star break, with a 4.11 ERA in 14 starts. He faced the Phillies once, back on May 24, when he held them to two runs on two hits and two walks with three strikeouts in 5⅔ innings in a 6-5 Phillies win.

Kelly had some moderate success against the Phillies in a start on June 14: six innings, three runs, three hits, four walks, seven strikeouts in a 4-3 Phillies win. He has shown some signs of wear recently, with a 4.24 ERA, 51 strikeouts, and 22 walks in his last 46⅔ innings over eight starts.

Again, the Phillies have no reason to fear facing either pitcher. But it would certainly help the cause to face someone else in Game 1.

That’s a very real possibility. The earliest the Diamondbacks can clinch is Thursday, but it would require seven outcomes all going in their favor: two wins over the White Sox on Wednesday and Thursday, plus two Marlins losses in a doubleheader against the Mets on Wednesday, another Marlins loss to the Mets on Thursday, and two Cubs losses to the Braves on Wednesday and Thursday.

If one of those variables does not happen, then Gallen will (presumably) make his next scheduled start on Friday, in which case he wouldn’t be available to start again on normal rest until Game 2 of the wild-card series.

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If Arizona still hasn’t clinched, Kelly would start Saturday, sidelining him until an if-necessary Game 3 of the wild-card round.

In other words, if the Diamondbacks haven’t clinched by the end of play on Friday, the Phillies would likely play Game 1 against one of a trio of nothingburger starters, all of whom have an ERA of at least 5.00 (Ryne Nelson, Zach Davies, and Brandon Pfaadt).

That’s no reason to pop the champagne corks, since the Diamondbacks would still have Gallen and Kelly on normal rest for Games 2 and 3. That said, it’s about as ideal a situation as you could ask for, especially when considering Arizona’s bullpen struggles this season.

Steele is a pitcher the Phillies should fear. We saw that on May 21, when he held them scoreless for six innings, striking out six in the process. He has hit a rough patch lately, allowing 15 runs in 14⅓ innings over his last three starts. Steele could be wearing down: he has already exceeded his previous career-high in innings by nearly 50% (173⅓, up from 119 last year). That said, the last thing this Phillies lineup wants to see is a tough lefty in Game 1.

They’ve got a decent chance of avoiding it. The Cubs are a game behind the Diamondbacks, and they don’t have the tiebreaker, so the earliest they could clinch the No. 5 seed is Saturday. To do that, they’d need to win Wednesday through Saturday and have the Diamondbacks lose three of their four games during that stretch. They’d also need some help from the Marlins.

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Long story short, the Phillies have set themselves up to enter the wild-card round with a very good chance at advancing to a second straight division-round series against the Braves.

“I think we’re in a little better position this year than we were last year at this time,” said Nola, who held the Pirates to one run in 6⅔ innings with eight strikeouts and no walks in the clinching win on Tuesday.

They are deeper in the bullpen and the starting rotation. They are scoring runs at a better clip than they were at this time last year.

The only question right now is who they’ll need to beat first.

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