Skip to content
Phillies
Link copied to clipboard

The Phillies had a tough road to the playoffs last September. Here’s why it could be easier this season.

The bats are alive, the starting pitching is shaping up and the schedule is favorable. Unlike 2022, this Phillies team is poised for a smoother run to the playoffs.

Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and the Phillies are rolling into September fresh off a 59-homer August.
Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and the Phillies are rolling into September fresh off a 59-homer August.Read moreHeather Khalifa / Staff Photographer

The Phillies are 74-59 as they head into their final full month of the season. They are coming off a 17-10 August, and are remarkably close to where they were at this point last year. The 2022 Phillies entered September with a 73-58 record. They went 18-11 in August.

September 2022 did not go as well for them. The Phillies went 11-14 down the stretch. They were swept by the Cubs and were only a half-game ahead of the Brewers for the third wild-card spot by the end of the month. They won two games against the Nationals in early October and clinched in Houston, after a 3-0 win over the Astros on Oct. 3.

The Phillies don’t want a repeat of that finish. Here are some reasons to be optimistic that they won’t.

Offense clicking at right time

For most of this season, the Phillies haven’t slugged the way they were expected to. That changed in August. Their two superstars — Bryce Harper and Trea Turner — found their power strokes in a big way. Harper, who hit his 300th home run on Wednesday, slashed .361/.452/.784 with a 1.236 OPS in August. Turner has hit .324/.368/.676 with a 1.044 OPS. They hit 10 and nine home runs in August, respectively.

Players say hitting comes in bunches, and that has been true of the Phillies. They hit an MLB-high 59 home runs in August, and 35 of those came with runners on base. They’re showing better plate discipline. There were times, earlier in the season, when overcoming a 2-0 deficit would have felt like an insurmountable feat. That is no longer the case. Come-from-behind wins seem inevitable.

» READ MORE: Phillies futures odds steadily improving as offense surges

It’s a much better spot than where they were in at the end of August last season. The 2022 Phillies hit 33 home runs in August. They walked at 7.4% clip, struck out at a rate of 22.1%, and had a team slugging percentage of .442. They chased 33.3% of pitches out of the zone, and made hard contact at a rate of 35.9%.

In addition to their power surge during August, the 2023 Phillies walked at a rate of 8.5%, and struck out less frequently than last year, at a clip of 20.4%. Their team slugging percentage was .547, and their hard-hit percentage was higher (37%) than August 2022. They have chased more pitches (34%), but they’ve been better across the board.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper hits 300th homer: How he got here and what’s next

That bodes well for September.

“I don’t think baseball teams or players go, ‘OK, this is a new month. We have to start over again,’” manager Rob Thomson said Wednesday. “It’s the flow of the season. Just keep going.”

Starting pitching coming into form

Even with the offensive barrage in August, one of the biggest developments was that Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler looked more like themselves. Nola threw a seven-inning shutout against the Cardinals on Sunday, and allowed just two runs in seven innings against the Giants on Aug. 21.

Wheeler struggled against the Nationals in his first inning of the Little League Classic on Aug. 20, but made an adjustment and pitched seven innings. He allowed one earned one in seven innings against the Cardinals in his next start.

Both pitchers have had somewhat inconsistent seasons. Getting more consistency from the Phillies’ No. 1 and 2 starters would have a ripple effect on the entire team — especially the bullpen, which has looked taxed lately.

» READ MORE: Sizing up an Aaron Nola contract in free agency: The comps, the Phillies factors, and one familiar case

The thing to watch with Nola will be how he pitches with runners on base. It’s something he has struggled with in his career, but especially this season. Hitters are batting .211 against Nola with the bases empty and .270 with runners in scoring position. He has been working with pitching coach Caleb Cotham to address it. Whether he’s able to improve in that area will have a big impact.

Another positive is that Cristopher Sánchez has pitched well for most of the season. He’s keeping his walks down, and other than a tough outing on Wednesday, he has given the Phillies at least five innings in all of his outings in July and August. Sánchez’s emergence is coming at a good time for the Phillies, since Taijuan Walker has been up and down. Walker’s velocity dipped again in his last start, on Aug. 28.

Ranger Suárez, who has been sidelined with a strained right hamstring, is expected to start Sunday in Milwaukee. He hasn’t pitched since Aug. 13.

Once Suárez returns, the Phillies will use a six-man rotation, at least through the Sept. 11 doubleheader against Atlanta. That should give everyone more rest at a time when they need it most.

Strength of schedule

The Phillies don’t necessarily have an easy month ahead, but they had a slightly tougher schedule last September. They started the month with a three-game set against the Giants in San Francisco, where they have not played particularly well. Their next three series were a respite — two against the Marlins and one against the Nationals — but after that, they faced seven games against the Braves and two against the Blue Jays.

Of their last 10 series of the season, six were against teams with a record below .500. This season, of their last nine series, six are against teams with a record below .500. Only two of their final opponents have serious playoff aspirations (Braves and Brewers).

» READ MORE: Murphy: Move over, Mike Trout. Say hi, Shohei. Bryce Harper is right there with you.

They’ll also play fewer games on the road. The Phillies played 20 road games in September-October 2022 and will play 15 in their final month-plus of 2023.

Part of the problem last season was that the Phillies didn’t beat up on the teams they should have. That will have to change this month. And with the way they’re hitting, they might have a better chance.