These three Phillies face uncertain futures beyond 2025. Let’s examine the outlook for each to return.

It’s known within baseball as the “Steve Cohen Tax” because, when it was conceived during the contentious collective bargaining talks in 2022, the New York Mets owner was deemed most likely to actually incur it.

Yet here are the Phillies, bracing to join Cohen’s tax bracket.

It’s crazy to think about now, after how much money — nearly $1 billion, based on data compiled by Spotrac — John Middleton and his partners spent on player salaries over the last four years. But there was a time when the Phillies walked the payroll to the brink of the first luxury-tax threshold and stopped, raising doubts that they would ever cross it.

» READ MORE: Inspired by the Eagles’ Super Bowl win, John Middleton readies for another Phillies season with high expectations

The Phillies finally blew through it in 2022 for Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. They kept going, too, signing Trea Turner and Aaron Nola in the next two offseasons, and stand now to carry an estimated luxury-tax payroll of $307.8 million, in excess of the Cohen threshold ($301 million this year).

Only the champion Dodgers ($399.7 million) and Cohen’s Mets ($326.6 million) are poised to spend more, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Life among the financial goliaths has erased all doubt about ownership’s commitment to winning. But how much further will the Phillies go? Now that they’re above $300 million — and subject to a 110% tariff on every additional dollar spent — is there a point at which Middleton will say, “No more,” if Dave Dombrowski wants to add another player?

“I would say no,” Middleton said in a recent interview. “I look at the payroll — and I push Dave to look at the payroll — as a meaningful guidepost, but that’s kind of all it is.”

In that case, it would appear there’s flexibility to add salary at the trade deadline if the go-for-it Phillies need, say, another reliever or outfielder. If anything, Middleton said, the tougher decision will be whether to deal prospects for a short-term gain. (In December, the Phillies walked away from the prospect cost for then-White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet but did move teen shortstop Starlyn Caba to the Marlins for Jesús Luzardo.)

But what about a contract extension for Schwarber, or J.T. Realmuto, or Ranger Suárez, each of whom is eligible for free agency after the season?

The Phillies could have as much as $88 million rolling off the books after this season depending on options for relievers José Alvarado and Matt Strahm. But most of that money would go right back on the payroll with new contracts for Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suárez.

» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto or … who? The Phillies will face a complex decision with their star catcher.

It’s difficult, then, to imagine the Phillies retaining all three. Middleton indicated that he will take Dombrowski’s recommendation. That was the case last March, when the Phillies locked up Zack Wheeler with a three-year, $126 million extension entering the final year of his existing contract.

“Dave decided that Zack Wheeler had to be signed, so he went out and signed him,” Middleton said. “It just depends. And sometimes you approach people and they don’t want to have that conversation now for whatever reason, whether they just want to test the market or they want to focus on their training and preparing for the season and don’t want to be distracted by that.”

Last month, Realmuto said there’s “definitely interest for me” in discussing an extension, a sentiment echoed by Schwarber. Suárez, who hired agent Scott Boras to handle his next contract, told reporters this week that he wants to pitch for the Phillies “for the rest of my career,” but also said it’s a topic for “after the season is over.”

There’s a case to be made for keeping each player. Let’s examine their respective situations:

In 2021, the Phillies re-signed Realmuto for five years and $115.5 million, the largest average annual salary for a catcher by $100,000 over Joe Mauer’s extension 11 years earlier.

Realmuto has already outperformed the contract.

Not only has he caught 147 more innings (not including the postseason) than any catcher in baseball, but he leads at the position with 15.9 wins above replacement, valuing him at $123.5 million, based on Fangraphs’ WAR-to-dollars formula.

» READ MORE: Q&A: J.T. Realmuto on the Phillies’ chances in 2025, his future, and more

But the loudest endorsements for Realmuto come from Phillies pitchers. Wheeler swears by his game-calling, rarely shaking him off. Pitching coach Caleb Cotham lauds Realmuto for his pregame preparation and assistance in assembling a game plan.

“J.T., he’s just an absolute weapon,” Cotham said on Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s weekly baseball show. “It’s a superpower we have as a staff, just having J.T. back there and [backup Garrett Stubbs], because they’re so prepared that you can just trust them.”

Here’s where it’s complicated: Realmuto turns 34 later this month. The catcher aging curve is unforgiving, and there are signs of slippage. He’s coming off his worst season at the plate since 2015, capped by an 0-for-11 series in the divisional-round loss to the Mets. And he had torn cartilage removed from his right knee last June.

When the Phillies re-signed Realmuto, team officials listed reasons to believe he won’t age like a typical catcher, notably that he’s uncommonly athletic for the position.

But the best argument for re-upping Realmuto is the lack of an in-house successor. The Phillies traded Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels for Brandon Marsh in 2022; Rafael Marchán has a troublesome injury history; top catching prospect Eduardo Tait is 18 years old and in A-ball.

The Phillies have discussed trimming Realmuto’s workload to keep him fresh throughout the season. They’ve brainstormed ways to retain his bat in the lineup when he doesn’t catch.

» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto is interested in an extension with the Phillies, who have real decisions to make

Maybe it’s a precursor to an extension offer. Maybe not. Dombrowski and the front office don’t publicly discuss contracts.

There aren’t many examples of three-year contracts for catchers in their mid-30s. Most recently, the Cardinals signed Yadier Molina to a three-year, $60 million deal entering his age-35 season in 2017. An extension for Realmuto figures to come at a higher salary.

“I want to play as long as I can,” Realmuto said. “I don’t know what that [age] is going to be, and I don’t necessarily have a goal for that. As long as my wife, my kids are enjoying this career and my body feels good and I’m productive, I want to be helping a team win as long as I can do that.”

Pete Alonso lingered as a free agent for three months before landing back with the Mets on a two-year contract that guarantees either $54 million or $30 million and a chance to opt out after this season.

It might be a harbinger for Schwarber.

Alonso turned 30 in December; Schwarber celebrated his 32nd birthday this week. Alonso hit 157 homers over the last four seasons; Schwarber hit 163. Alonso has limited defensive value as a first baseman; ditto for Schwarber, even as he prepares to play more left field and maybe even first base in addition to being primarily a DH.

» READ MORE: Q&A: Kyle Schwarber on a possible extension and whether this Phillies core has an expiration date

Alonso was most valuable to the Mets because he’s a homegrown fan favorite. Schwarber’s leadership in the clubhouse stands to boost his value to the Phillies. But by how much?

“I’ve said this plenty of times that [Philadelphia] is where I felt like I’ve truly gotten to be myself and be the player I’m able to be,” Schwarber said. “And I feel like there’s still a better version in the tank.”

Case in point: Schwarber made adjustments that led to a .300 average against lefties last season. This year, he’s trying to reduce his pre-pitch bat movement to take a more direct path to the ball and cut down on strikeouts.

But most front offices have shown there are limits to what they will pay for single-dimensional sluggers. Schwarber will also likely receive the qualifying offer from the Phillies, which could further threaten his market, as it did with Alonso and the Mets.

“I’ve always said this: The best way to get paid is to win,” Schwarber said. “That’s what I’ve been about my whole career. I’m just going to continue to be that way. Whatever happens, happens. If something gets done [with an extension], that’s awesome. I want to. I would love that to happen. If it doesn’t, I’m going to pour my heart and soul into this team just like I do every year and see what happens.”

When Suárez calls the Phillies “my childhood club,” he isn’t exaggerating. They scouted him in Venezuela and signed him for $25,000 at age 16.

Suárez, now 29, literally grew up in the Phillies’ employ.

But you don’t hire Boras just in time for your walk year unless you plan to test the market. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Michael King, and Framber Valdez would headline the free-agent pitching class of 2025-26, with Valdez and Suárez as the top lefties.

Suárez was the best pitcher in the National League through June last season. But a sore back landed him on the injured list in July, and upon his return, he posted a 5.74 ERA in seven starts.

» READ MORE: From teen prospect in rural Venezuela to All-Star: How Ranger Suárez became ‘that guy’ with the Phillies

The Phillies have discussed ways of keeping Suárez healthy over a full season. It would benefit both parties. Because if he’s able to pitch 180 innings rather than 150 while sustaining his top-of-the-rotation ability, the rotation will be even more formidable and he will land a nine-figure megadeal.

In case of the latter, the Phillies traded for Luzardo, who is under team control through 2026. Top prospect Andrew Painter is also expected to make his major league debut by the middle of the season.

“I want to pitch here for the rest of my career,” Suárez said. “It’s about going through the season, and then after the season’s over, then we’re going to see what happens.”