Two Pa. House races shift towards Dems; Shapiro campaigns in Montco; can poll numbers be trusted?

Local and state officials across Pennsylvania are projecting confidence about the safety and security of Tuesday’s election.

But unexpected issues can happen — and with broader concerns about poll watchers, AI deepfakes and other forms of misinformation, voters should know they have resources available to them to sort through any problems, said Lauren Cristella, president and CEO of the Committee of Seventy.

Cristella said she and her organization are encouraging voters to call 866-OUR-VOTE if necessary. The hotline is administered by the nonpartisan Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and offers assistance on basic voting procedures and any obstacles that voters might encounter.

The top Democrat in charge of getting her party elected to the U.S. House is not entertaining a scenario where Bob Harvie loses Tuesday.

Harvie, a county commissioner, has waged the most competitive challenge yet against Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the Bucks County-based 1st Congressional District race. That seat could help deliver Democrats a majority in the U.S. House if they pull off a win against one of the toughest GOP incumbents in the country in one of the swingiest places in Pennsylvania.

Asked what happens if the tides don’t turn their way on Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview: “Bob Harvie’s going to win and he's going to win because people want to change, and people know who he is and what he stands for.”

Ahead of Gov. Josh Shapiro’s closing rallies before Election Day, where he’s asking voters for a second term in office, he returned to his home.

In Montgomery County, Shapiro, 53, of Abington Township, served as a state representative and county commissioner.

To a crowd of about 150 people in Narberth Township, about a dozen miles from Abington, Shapiro thanked the residents for their support over the years and asked them to vote for him to a second term as governor.

At a pre-Election Day rally in Lower Merion Monday, Gov. Josh Shapiro said the path to a Democratic majority in Congress runs through Pennsylvania.

“We quite literally will decide the balance of power in the Congress of the United States with these competitive congressional races all across our commonwealth,” he said.

Over the closing days, as he’s crisscrossed the state in during a bus tour, Shapiro has campaigned with each of the Democratic congressional candidates vying to defeat GOP incumbents in four swing districts. If Democrats flip just a handful seats, they take the majority in the U.S. House, and the popular governor is aiming to provide his coattails to bring each down-ballot candidate across the finish line.

Tuesday is make or break for Democratic congressional candidate Bob Harvie.

“We're going to win this race because, quite frankly, we don't have an option,” he told supporters gathered in his campaign office in Lower Bucks County on Monday morning.

Harvie is locked in a competitive toss-up race against Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the Bucks County-based 1st Congressional District, one of four key swing seats in Pennsylvania that could determine control of the U.S. House.

Gov. Josh Shapiro was about to recite his well-tread story about the signing of the constitution — as he tells it, a band of patriots gathered in Philadelphia to declare their independence from a king and set up the new nation — when a man interjected his speech.

“OK, Mr. President,” said Scott Anthony Romano, 61, who lives in Belmont Hills.

At a rally in Lower Merion Monday, Shapiro asked voters to elect him to a second term as governor to raise Pennsylvania’s minimum wage, codify abortion rights and increase funding for mass transit. Attendees like Romano, however, have grander visions for Shapiro’s next step.

President Donald Trump’s administration appealed to the Supreme Court on Monday in its push to sideline thousands of disputed California mail ballots the day before the pivotal midterm elections.

The emergency appeal came after an appeals court rejected the request to set aside some 20,000 ballots from people the federal government suspects may not be citizens.

The federal government says those ballots should not be counted until the voters’ status can be verified. California officials say the list is highly unreliable and likely includes many people who are U.S. citizens.

Over the history of the Times/Siena poll, there have been two previous elections when the final polls showed everything seeming to break toward Democrats.

The first was in 2018. Our final polls showed Democrats gaining across the board, including in races that had barely been on the radar. Democrats surged by double digits in just a few weeks to build startling leads over longtime Republican incumbents in districts that supported Trump in the previous election. Democrats even led in Georgia’s 6th, which had badly disappointed them in a special election one year earlier when Jon Ossoff lost.

In the end, the final Times/Siena polls were dead-on — including where Democratic strength was most surprising.

While many Republican candidates are distancing themselves from Donald Trump, the president is scheduled to deliver his closing election remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool Monday at 2 p.m.

Trump's decision not to travel to key states on the eve of the election is a continuation of a strategy that's seen him campaign in heavily conservative areas amid polling that shows a massive wave of support for Democrats.

Democrats have a 96% chance of winning control of the House and an 80% chance of taking over the Senate, according to longtime election prognosticator Nate Silver and his FLIPR election forecast.

As the 2026 midterm elections draw near, two closely watched Pennsylvania House races appear to be shifting in the Democrats' favor.

Among the 12 last-minute House rating changes is Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, which Cook Political Report moved from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up."

In the Bucks County district, incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick — the last remaining House Republican in the Philadelphia suburbs — is trying to fight off a challenge from Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie.

The U.S. Department of Justice plans to send election monitors to polling places in Philadelphia and three other Pennsylvania counties on Election Day. Whether that’s cause for concern or business as usual is up for debate.

It’s not uncommon for the federal government to deploy election monitors. However, the plan has raised alarms due to President Donald Trump’s track record of disputing election results. The Justice Department, which is run by Trump’s former personal attorney Todd Blanche, said the goal is to make sure federal law is followed.

The Pennsylvania Department of State, which oversees elections in the commonwealth, shared some of the Justice Department's communications, as well as its plans. Here’s what we know:

Democrats gained ground right to the end in the final New York Times/Siena University polls of the 2026 midterm campaign. The party is ahead in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.

A substantial Democratic lead in Texas? Kansas? Anything like these results would have been unfathomable just a few months ago.

In today’s polarized era, there’s no precedent for a party to fare this well in so many states that are generally safe wins for the other side. The only plausible comparisons are the Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, but the recent polls outpace even those. The average of all polls shows Democrats leading in the same states as the Times/Siena surveys, giving the party the edge in more solidly Republican Senate seats than it managed to flip in 2006 and 2008 combined.

Election Day is right around the corner, and deadlines for mail voters are fast approaching.

Pennsylvanians who are casting their vote by mail have until 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3, to get their filled-out ballots to their county board of elections. (The deadline to apply for a mail ballot has passed; if you missed it, you can vote in person or request an emergency absentee ballot.)

There’s a couple ways to ensure your vote counts. Here’s what to know.

Pennsylvania, can you believe it? It’s almost here. Voters across the Keystone State are gearing up to cast their ballots in November’s midterm elections, which will decide the balance of power in Harrisburg and Washington.

Control of the U.S. House could come down to a few key Pennsylvania congressional districts, including one in the Philly suburbs. And the election will determine whether Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro holds onto the governor’s office as he faces a challenge from Republican Stacy Garrity.

Pennsylvanians will also make their voices heard in state House elections and state Senate races as Democrats vie for their first trifecta in Harrisburg in decades. The majority in the state Senate will likely come down to a handful of competitive races in the eastern half of the state.