New Pa. poll shows Shapiro leading handily against Garrity, trouncing Trump in popularity

Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro has a commanding lead against his Republican rival Stacy Garrity in a head-to-head matchup, and he maintains steady job approval ratings five months ahead of the November election, according to a new poll of Pennsylvania voters from Franklin and Marshall College.

Shapiro leads Garrity 50% to 28% in the 2026 governor’s race, a crushing advantage well outside of the survey’s margin of error of 5.1 percentage points. It is the first major poll released since both candidates officially secured their parties’ nominations in uncontested primaries last month.

The survey, conducted June 8-14 by the Center for Opinion Research on behalf of Franklin and Marshall, involved 546 registered Pennsylvania voters. Roughly 42% were Democrats, about the same percentage were Republicans, and about 16% were independents.

Shapiro won almost half of independents and just over a quarter of Republicans, who rated his performance as excellent or good.

About an equal proportion of all voters — 48% — said Shapiro is doing an excellent or good job as governor as those who said he is doing a fair or poor job.

Shapiro’s approval comes as he continues building a national profile, likely with ambitions for higher office.

He also boasts relative popularity despite voters’ deep concern with their personal finances and the state of the economy, the top issue among every partisan group.

“The big concern that people face is economic, and even though that’s the problem that we see facing us, the blame goes outside of Pennsylvania,” said Berwood Yost, the director of the Center for Opinion Research. “People don’t see [Shapiro] as being responsible for the economic concerns that they have.”

But people do blame President Donald Trump.

Just 29% of voters said Trump is doing an excellent or good job, while 71% said he is doing a fair or poor job. It marked a 10-percentage-point drop from March, when his positive approval rating was 39%.

While 63% of Republican voters gave Trump positive reviews in the new poll, that number was almost 80% in March.

Just under half of respondents said they are “worse off” financially than one year ago, and 35% of voters said the economy, including unemployment, housing and real estate costs, and higher gas and utility prices, is the most important problem facing the state.

“Pennsylvania should be doing so much better,” Garrity said in a previous interview with The Inquirer. “[Voters] know we’re falling behind. They know that we have a governor who’s more interested in Pennsylvania Avenue than helping Pennsylvania families. They’re very worried about utility prices because their electric bills are going up, up, up. Groceries are expensive.”

But among those who mention economic problems, voters in the poll trust Democrats over Republicans, 42% to 24%, as the party that can best handle the issue.

Shapiro’s campaign released a new TV and digital ad Tuesday focusing on his expansion of workforce opportunities, such as apprenticeships in trades like welding.

“Governor Shapiro bet on workers like me. I’m proof that bet’s paying off,” said Ryan, a worker in Western Pennsylvania, in the ad.

Yost said Garrity is a “high-quality candidate” with a great resume that may keep down-ballot Republicans afloat, but she is competing against a popular incumbent in a year where Democrats are poised to win seats.

“It’s rough to be a Republican at the moment,” he said. “You’re facing those headwinds, no matter what office you’re running.”

On the economy, the issue voters care most about, a mere 17% of voters approve of how Trump’s administration is handling inflation.

“The concerns about personal financial circumstances, the economy, and the cost of living — they’re paramount in people’s minds, and they’ve become more pronounced since March,“ Yost said. “That’s had an effect on the president’s job approval ratings in the state, which have declined pretty substantially.”

In the last four gubernatorial races, the average margin of victory has been about 13 percentage points, Yost said, while presidential races tend to be much tighter — about 2.2 points.

“What’s essential to understand is that these races happen in a different context than the presidential races. There are a lot of things different about them, and typically incumbent governors have a real advantage,” he said.

Many of Shapiro’s budget priorities, such as restricting cell phones in schools and taxing skill games, have widespread public support.

Almost nine out of 10 people support limiting access to cell phones in classrooms, which follows Shapiro’s urge for legislation to “get distractions out of the classroom and create a healthier environment in our schools.”

And 71% of registered voters favor regulating and taxing so-called skill games, the slot machine look-alikes around Pennsylvania — an 11-percentage-point increase compared with previous F&M polling in 2024.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled Monday the skill games are, in fact, slot machines and should be regulated as such, clearing the way for the state to place new rules on the devices. The decision was celebrated by Democrats who view the machines as “predatory.”

Most voters, 70%, also support having an independent redistricting commission to draw state legislative districts, and 59% oppose mid-decade redistricting.

Texas redrew its congressional maps last August at Trump’s urging, shifting five seats to lean more heavily Republican. California voters approved a constitutional amendment in November to permit the adoption of replacement maps that would favor Democrats. Other states have also voluntarily redrawn or created new maps following litigation.

Shapiro said he also opposes mid-decade redistricting, telling reporters last August: “It’s not on the table here in Pennsylvania.”

As parties compete for control of the U.S. House of Representatives this midterm election season, the poll found that voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by 12 points, 47% to 35%. Shapiro has personally backed several candidates and is hoping to use his influence to help Democrats win the majority this November.