James Harden and Joel Embiid prop bets are out for tonight’s Sixers game
Harden, who will play his first game as a Sixer against Minnesota on Friday, proved tough for bookies because he's with a new team and hasn't played since Feb. 2.
When James Harden made his debut for Brooklyn last year following his midseason trade from Houston, he exploded for a triple-double. He dropped 32 points, grabbed 12 boards and dished out 14 dimes in a win over Orlando. He nearly had an ignominious quadruple-double if you include his nine turnovers.
But miscues aside, it was a successful start — except the Nets didn’t cover the 13.5-point spread.
Fast forward a year and the optimism in Philadelphia is as high as it was 13 months ago in Brooklyn when the Nets acquired Harden, a three-time scoring champ and one of the NBA’s 75 greatest players.
Harden played his first game as a Sixer Friday night at Minnesota in the team’s most-anticipated trade debut since Dikembe Mutombo arrived 21 years ago. One key difference this time around, at least from a betting perspective, is there were no (legal) player props back then. Such markets were merely a twinkle in the eye of Las Vegas’s neon lights.
PointsBet opened Harden’s over/under for Friday’s game at 21.5 points, and made threes at 2.5. BetMGM had him at 6.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists. Each had a line on whether he’d notch a triple-double, but there’s a discrepancy in the odds. (See below.)
Given the numerous variables — Harden hadn’t played since Feb. 2, Joel Embiid had never played with such a prolific scorer, Minnesota won a tough game Thursday night, and the Sixers hadn’t played since last week — posting odds can make bookies vulnerable.
“Setting openers is a mixture of art and science,” said Sam Garriock, senior trader for PointsBet. “In a team with a set lineup that has been together a ton — [like] last year’s Utah Jazz — the opener is almost pure science.
“Figuring Harden’s usage rate and minutes load are both going to require quite a bit of educated guessing on our part. The bookmaking from there is not too dissimilar to a regular game. We just have to move a little more aggressively off respected money with the level of uncertainty that exists.”
Harden’s usage rate, the estimated percentage of offense run through him, is 28.4%. By comparison, Embiid’s is 35.3% — second only to Luka Doncic (36.0%) league-wide.
Notable props
Opening over/unders via BetMGM and PointsBet:
James Harden: Points: 21.5, Rebounds: 6.5, Assists: 9.5, Steals: 1.5, Threes: 2.5
Joel Embiid: Points: 31.5, Rebounds: 11.5, Assists: 3.5, Blocks: 1.5, Threes: 1.5
Other over/under point props:
Tobias Harris, 17.5 points, Tyrese Maxey, 15.5 points, Matisse Thybulle, 5.5 points, Karl-Anthony Towns, 23.5 points, and DeAngelo Russell, 19.5 points.
Harden to record a double-double: PointsBet had -160 yes; BetMGM had -140 yes, +115 no.
Harden to record a triple-double: PointsBet had +500 yes; BetMGM had +675 yes, -1100 no.
First Sixers field goal: Embiid +165, Harden +325, Harris +375, Maxey +425, Thybulle +900.
Game’s first field goal: Harden two-pointer is +1000, Harden three-pointer is +2000, Embiid two-pointer is +400, Embiid three-pointer is +3000.
Note: Sportsbooks added propositions and promotions up until tip-off.
Friday’s line movement
As far as the traditional point spread, the line has settled in at Sixers -2.5 or -3 after some initial volatility.
Caesars opened the Sixers as 1-point underdogs. BetMGM was giving the Sixers 1.5 for most of Thursday afternoon. The over/under had bounced from 226.5 to 229.5 as of Friday morning. SuperBook’s individual team total was Sixers 116 points, Minnesota 113 points.
Futures money
There’s been some movement on the Sixers in the futures market, particularly at one local house where folks are betting with both fists on them to win the Eastern Conference.
Tom Gable, head of the sports and race book at the Borgata in Atlantic City, said he’s consistently seeing action on the Sixers to make an extended playoff run.
“Yes, most definitely,” Gable said. “The day the trade for Harden was announced [Feb. 10], we moved their conference odds from +1200 to +700. They are now +350. Outside of the Cavaliers, they are our biggest liability and our most heavily bet team to win the East.
“They are +700 to win the NBA title, and while they have attracted the most tickets, we don’t have a lot of liability on them in that market.”
Leading odds/BetMGM
Eastern Conference: Brooklyn +280, Milwaukee +280, Sixers +350, Miami +500.
Western Conference: Golden State +175, Phoenix +190, Utah +650, Memphis +1200.
NBA title: Golden State +425, Phoenix +450, Brooklyn +600, Milwaukee +600, Sixers +700, Miami +1000.
This & That
NBA: Chicago star DeMar DeRozen has gone over his points prop in 11 consecutive games. The run started on Feb. 1 when DraftKings had him at 25.5 against Orlando (he had 29). On Thursday, his line was 28.5 and he dropped 37 on Atlanta. DeRozan opened last summer at 1000-1 to win the MVP at SuperBook. He was 30-1 in mid-January, and 8-1 on Friday.
NBA: Caesars took a $50,000 wager on Nikola Jokic (+300) to win the MVP, their largest in that market to date. In Pennsylvania, Jokic was down to +225. Joel Embiid (+115) continued to be favored.
CALIF: A poll conducted by the University of California-Berkeley and Los Angeles Times found that 45 percent of state residents would support a constitutional amendment that would allow sports wagering, 33 percent would oppose, and 22 percent are undecided.
CBB: Game of the week was Providence’s triple-overtime thriller over Xavier – except for the punter who had $363,000 on Xavier +1.5. Providence won 99-92. Three of the Friars’ last four games have gone to overtime. They host Creighton on Saturday, and opened as 4-point underdogs.
He said it
“We like when teams push the pace with us because I don’t think any team in the country can play that fast with us. We are a good team in transition so when good teams want to play like that, we will score 100.”
– Kansas guard Christian Braun. The 5th-ranked Jayhawks visit No. 10 Baylor on Saturday. Kansas beat the Bears, 83-59, on Feb. 5.
And finally
NHL: The Flyers are up to 15 games in a row where more than one goal has been scored in the third period. In seven of the last eight, the opposing team has scored more than one. The Flyers are the worst team in the Metropolitan and simply run out of gas is the easiest conclusion. They play Washington on Saturday afternoon (12:30 p.m., EST) in South Philly.