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Lionel Messi has transformed last-place Inter Miami into an MLS Cup betting favorite

Messi's arrival in Miami has changed the MLS math. Inter Miami, currently the worst team in MLS and 14 points out of playoff spot, now is tied for the second-best odds to win MLS Cup.

Lionel Messi has set MLS alight with 10 goals and three assists in eight games.
Lionel Messi has set MLS alight with 10 goals and three assists in eight games.Read moreHeather Khalifa / Staff Photographer / Heather Khalifa / Staff Photogra

Messi Mania. Messi Magic. Call it whatever you want to.

It continued Wednesday night, when the Argentine delivered a perfect ball into the box to set up Inter Miami’s equalizing goal at the death against FC Cincinnati in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals. Inter Miami went on to win in penalties.

Just days after winning the club’s first piece of hardware in the Leagues Cup, the Herons advanced to another trophy final.

Inter Miami is a perfect 8-for-8 with Messi in uniform. It ran the table in the Leagues Cup, including a dominant 4-1 win over the Union in Chester. Messi has 10 goals and three assists in those eight games.

Messi, arguably the greatest soccer player ever, has completely transformed Inter Miami and also the economy around MLS.

Inter Miami was at the bottom of the MLS table before he arrived. The Herons are still there, having not played an MLS league game since Messi joined. That changes Saturday in New York.

Can Miami make a run from worst to first? Here’s what the odds say.

MLS Cup odds: Inter Miami is among the favorites

Miami, in last place in the Eastern Conference, has the fewest points among all 29 MLS teams as it resumes MSL play this weekend. The Herons are 5-14-3 and 14 points out of a playoff spot with 12 games remaining.

But Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba have changed the math for Miami. So much so that oddsmakers have the Herons near the top of the odds board to win the MLS championship.

Here are the eight teams with shorter than 20/1 odds at BetMGM to win MLS Cup as of Thursday morning:

  1. FC Cincinnati: +500

  2. Los Angeles FC: +600

  3. Inter Miami: +600

  4. Philadelphia Union: +1000

  5. St. Louis City SC: +1000

  6. New England Revolution: +1100

  7. Nashville SC: +1400

  8. Seattle Sounders: +1600

Bettors would not be just gambling on Messi and his team to do well but that Messi, Busquets, and Alba will completely alter Miami’s path..

To put some of this in perspective, statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight last updated its MLS predictions forecast on June 13, a few weeks before Messi came to America.

Miami had the worst goal differential in the league and just 15 points. The Herons were projected to finish the season with 32 points — the current point total for Chicago, the last playoff team in the Eastern Conference.

The FiveThirtyEight model gave Miami a 4% chance to make the playoffs and a 48% chance to finish at the bottom of the conference.

Miami’s 6/1 odds at BetMGM to win MLS Cup translates to an implied probability of 14.3% to win the title.

» READ MORE: Bet on high-scoring game between Chelsea and Luton Town in Friday’s Premier League match

Top goal scorer: Messi favored to go on a big run

Want some more Messi Math?

Despite having zero MLS goals — Miami’s eight games with Messi have been in other competitions — Messi was the favorite Thursday morning at BetMGM to finish the regular season with the most goals, even though current leader Hany Mukhtar has a 13-goal head start.

With the run Messi is on, it’s hard to put it past him.

These six players had shorter than 10/1 odds as of Thursday morning to be the league’s top goal scorer:

  1. Lionel Messi (0 goals): +350

  2. Hany Mukhtar (13): +400

  3. Giorgos Giakoumakis (12): +600

  4. Denis Bouanga (12): +600

  5. Luciano Acosta (12): +600

  6. Cristian Espinoza (12): +800