A prediction for the Union-New York City FC game

New York City FC is a tricky team to figure out.

The Pigeons are 4-0-1 at home but 0-5-3 on the road. When you add those numbers up you only get to 10th place in the Eastern Conference, on both total points and points per game (since some teams have played more games than others).

And as ever, the definition of “home” isn’t straightforward. After New York played its first three home games this year at Yankee Stadium, Saturday’s hosting of the Union (7:30 p.m., Apple TV, paywalled) will be the third straight home game at the Mets’ Citi Field.

It will be the Union’s first trip to Queens after their eight previous trips to the five boroughs took them to the Bronx. (The Union were supposed to play at Citi Field in 2020, but then the pandemic happened.)

By all accounts, Citi Field is the better soccer venue of New York’s two baseball stadiums, as the field is a little wider and more seats are near the sidelines. But it’s still a baseball stadium, so it’s still an odd place for soccer.

» READ MORE: The Union’s Leon Flach is playing better lately. Here’s why.

The bigger concern is what happens in the game. NYCFC has some terrific young talents in Talles Magno, Santi Rodríguez, and Gabriel Pereira, but for the first time in years, it doesn’t have a certified top striker. Magno, Rodríguez, and Gabe Segal have all started multiple games at the top of the attack, with Rodríguez starting the most.

Of the trio, only Segal, a 22-year-old D.C.-area native, is a true No. 9. Magno is just as much a winger, and Rodríguez is an attacking midfielder who gets cast up front. A team that has boasted David Villa, Héber, and Valentín Castellanos over the years still lacks their successor.

So it’s not too surprising that NYCFC has struggled to score goals this year, with 15 in 13 games. That ranks 11th in the Eastern Conference and 18th in MLS as a whole. The Union’s 20 goals in 21 games are fourth in the East, and tied for sixth leaguewide.

In home games this year, though, New York has scored three goals on Dallas and D.C. and two on Nashville — a team that has given up just nine goals all year.

» READ MORE: How to watch the Union’s Eastern Conference final rematch vs. New York City FC

I’d like to think that the Union’s good form lately, especially with Dániel Gazdag finally scoring his first open-play goal of the year, forecasts a win in this game. The Union’s recent formation changes have also been a very good thing, as I’ve written a few times.

I’m not convinced the Union will win this game yet, but I’m sure of two things. One is that after this game, the Union’s brutal spring schedule will finally ease up.

The other is that if I hear “Narco” on the Citi Field loud­speakers at any time Saturday night, I’ll go for a victory. Queens is a great place for NYCFC’s future soccer stadium, but until then, you incur the Mets’ karma at your own risk.

Prediction: Union 2, NYCFC 2.

» READ MORE: Behind the scenes at Apple and MLS’ studios, where every Saturday is ‘like the Olympics’